This is a discussion on $200 NLHE 6-max: Would you call vs 90 VPIP player? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; UPoker - $100 Ante $20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 159.92 BB
UTG: 156.39 BB
MP: 193.36 BB
Why do you play with ante in NL150? You will find many insatiable maniacs like in this case. Unless you are training I would not recommend it.
On the flop and turn the bets are fine. Unfortunately the texture favors the manic range, this type could be 5-9; 4-5; 5-5 which neutralizes your blockers, etc. The villain could also have any draw with equity for the river. It is a fair decision but against this guy I would also call here.
Turn : (35.4 BB, 2 players) 8h
UTG checks, Hero bets 21.7 BB, UTG raises to 86.8 BB, Hero raises to 108.25 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 21.45 BB
River : (251.9 BB, 2 players) 4s
V plays 90VPIP. No history. 150NL. I'd rather GII Ts that AA,KK here
But I'm not sure we fold any
I am not going here OTT just because Villain has VPIP 'ish' of 90%. I am also not expecting many JJ, QQ or better on Villain's limping ranges.
Players with a large VPIP don't know how to play, don't know how to bluff, they aren't thinking about anything but their own hole cards.
So are you worried about JJ, KK or AA? Forget about it, Villain/UTG can display A6s, 76, 87, plus even 66, 77 and 88.
The second reason is because we have a lot of chips to burn only with a pocket pair and our excuse is low: Villain is a fish and the board is lower to our pocket pair.
Blocking the best straight is nice but we are still bluff catching here and his turn raise is polarizing. I agree if we are continuing we may as well GII. I just don't know if he has enough bluffs for us to be profitable here. You've only given us one stat, the VPIP of 90 and you have also said no history. Does that mean this is our first session? How many hands? I think his PFR and Aggression factor are even more important than his VPIP. Identifying one huge leak doesn't mean that we can safely conclude that they are also stacking off light or bluffing too much. There are 90 VPIP passive limp call fish that only put it in when they hit bingo. There are also 90 VPIP aggressive maniacs that pile it in with any draw. I don't think we can tell you just by the VPIP alone whether or not this is a call. I'm leaning fold after we clearly rep an overpair and V comes over the top on the turn.
I think it is fair to say that we have incomplete information, and that the call would only be viable if we follow the thought that villain could bluff with certain combos + we are a bit involved in this hand. How far can we be here?
This villain, if we think he is wide enough could do it with A-5s (4c) + A7o (12c) + A-8o (12c) + A9s (4c) + K9s (4c) + 8-7o (9c) + 8-9o (12c) + 4-8s (2c) + 10 flush draws combos: 69 bluffs combos.
Combos that defeat us: 6-5o (8c) + 4-5o (12c) + 5-9o (16c) + 6-6 (1c) + 7-7 (3c) + 8-8 (3c) + 6-7o (6c) + 6-8o (6c) + 6-4o (6c) + A-6o (8C) + K-6o (8c) + Q-6o (8c) + J-6o (8c) + 6-9o ( 8c) + 6-3o (8c) + 6-2o (8c) + 5-8o (12c): 129 combos that beat us.
So we have total combos: 69 + 129= 198
Bluff ratio: 69/198 = 34.85%
In this pot we have to put 65.1bb to make our call on the river, and the pot would have a total of 209 bb after it, but let's round to 200 bb assuming an average rake of 4%.
In this scenario we need to win 32.55% of the time for our call to be profitable. Here in this structure the villain will be bluffing 34.85% of the time, so the hero move is + EV if the image we have of the villain is that of a loose player. We keep in mind that we have been very generous as we have maximized the number of combos that beat us and have further limited the bluff combos, so the difference is really bigger, and the hero call on the river is a lot more suitable than it seems.