V's value range seems thin here should we stack off with 1 pair or fold turn? I don't see how calling turn can be an option. With a F3B of 69 and our pre flop sizing I don't expect 67s to really be there much but even if it's there that's only 2 combos. I'm not sure all of the 66 and 77 combos call pre either vs a large 3 bet from a nittier Hero.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB
MP: 215.17 BB - VP 26 / PR 30 / AF 3 / 3B 8 / F3B 69 (976 Hands)
CO: 100.37 BB
BTN: 55.94 BB
Hero (SB): 135.37 BB
BB: 172.19 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ K♦

fold, MP raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, MP calls 7.75 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 7♣ K♥
Hero bets 10 BB, MP raises to 29.98 BB, Hero calls 19.98 BB

Turn: (80.95 BB, 2 players) 4♠
Hero checks, MP bets 39.73 BB, Hero ???

how is it vpip 26 & pfr 30?

Turn I call & bluff catch non heart rivers & no 5. Cause 8h9hs is likely to take this line more than other heart combos

Hello,

PT4's definition of PFR makes 26/30 possible.

P: make 3bet slightly less to 9bb, but your sizing fine.

F: as played, your cbet sizing is way too small, bet bigger to 75-100% for value and protection, and because we're OOP. Flop has all draws, so charge them max amount.

It's close but I would just pot/stack off vs this guy, he looks just about aggro enough. Not loving it though. No point seeing more cards because bad run-outs are possible and we're already OOP in a huge 3bet pot.

77 66 are definitely in his pre r/c range: crux is whether he is capable of stacking off with combo/naked draws AKs AQs AJs KQs KJs QJs or random QQ-88.

As played, yes bet/call.

T: as played, crying check/call vs villain's small sizing. Our plan is to bluff-catch river and/or see showdown cheaply. If river is bad or he jams, we c/f river.

Originally Posted by Alucard

how is it vpip 26 & pfr 30?

Turn I call & bluff catch non heart rivers & no 5. Cause 8h9hs is likely to take this line more than other heart combos

Typo VP 26 / PR 20

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

V's value range seems thin here should we stack off with 1 pair or fold turn? I don't see how calling turn can be an option. With a F3B of 69 and our pre flop sizing I don't expect 67s to really be there much but even if it's there that's only 2 combos. I'm not sure all of the 66 and 77 combos call pre either vs a large 3 bet from a nittier Hero.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 100 BB
MP: 215.17 BB - VP 26 / PR 30 / AF 3 / 3B 8 / F3B 69 (976 Hands)
CO: 100.37 BB
BTN: 55.94 BB
Hero (SB): 135.37 BB
BB: 172.19 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ K♦

fold, MP raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, MP calls 7.75 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 7♣ K♥
Hero bets 10 BB, MP raises to 29.98 BB, Hero calls 19.98 BB

Turn: (80.95 BB, 2 players) 4♠
Hero checks, MP bets 39.73 BB, Hero ???

I need to ask you what is the difference between calling Villain's raise on the flop and calling his bet on the turn? I will try to explain better the 4 makes no difference in the hand there must have been a reason to call on the flop but that changed in your reasoning on the river. I'm not criticizing your play, I'm just curious about the river reading that made you change your mind on your action on the flop.

Originally Posted by greatgame230

I need to ask you what is the difference between calling Villain's raise on the flop and calling his bet on the turn? I will try to explain better the 4 makes no difference in the hand there must have been a reason to call on the flop but that changed in your reasoning on the river. I'm not criticizing your play, I'm just curious about the river reading that made you change your mind on your action on the flop.

On the flop we have to call roughly 20 BB to win a 81 BB pot. V's will often raise hands like KQ, KJ, or even some underpairs like TT for value. After we call some of those hands will give up.

On the turn we have to call 40 BB to win about 160 BB pot. While we're getting about the same odds, this time our decision has commitment issues. If we call we will have put in about 60 BB which is almost half of our stack. The pot will be 160 BB and we will have about 75 BB behind with TPTK. We need to be sure we are beat to fold river for those odds. There are very few cards that help us but quite a few cards that will bring in a flush, straight, two pair, or a set. V's range also narrows a bit as some of his middling pairs and Kx will check turn. If we fold TPTK every time someone raises flop we are overfolding and very exploitable. On the turn I think all three options are possible but I like calling the least as it will be difficult to bluff catch correctly, a fold is nitty and a raise may be an overplay so this decision seems much different.

Everything is fine to me pre flop and on the flop. I think betting the flop a little larger to get a touch more out of Kx hands and hearts combos is better but that is being picky on my part. Your sizing is totally fine imo. When villain raises me I would be thinking hearts, Kx (least likely of all these but possible), a set, or slowplayed Aces which depending on the villain is also possible. I would call as you did.

The turn brings a relative blank as I dont think villain does their flop actions with 58 or with 44. This as you put is not an easy decision and all of our choices could be backed up in one way or another. I like folding the least as I think it is too tight. Yeah we could be crushed here but we also could be going against a draw or Kx (I think Kx still bets here as they would not want to give you a free river with two hearts out there). The question now becomes call or jam. The question I would ask myself here is if villain has a set and a heart comes on the river would they call a lead jam by me of roughly 55BB? If the answer is yes then I just jam it here hoping they dont have a set. If I think they would fold a set to a river lead jam then I would call here with the intention on the river of jamming any heart that comes down and check calling any non heart card that comes on the river. That might be too much FPS and it might be overvaluing a one pair hand but If we do any action on the turn that is not a fold we have to go all the way this hand. My call turn idea only works if villain has a set since if they have two hearts then I am actually playing into their hand as they would get to play perfectly against me. Comes down to whether you think they have a set and if they would fold that set to another heart. Jamming is probably better than calling since we dont have to guess whether they would fold a set but I thought I would throw the calling the turn idea out there. Tough spot for sure

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

V's value range seems thin here should we stack off with 1 pair or fold turn? I don't see how calling turn can be an option. With a F3B of 69 and our pre flop sizing I don't expect 67s to really be there much but even if it's there that's only 2 combos. I'm not sure all of the 66 and 77 combos call pre either vs a large 3 bet from a nittier Hero.


PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 100 BB
MP: 215.17 BB - VP 26 / PR 30 / AF 3 / 3B 8 / F3B 69 (976 Hands)
CO: 100.37 BB
BTN: 55.94 BB
Hero (SB): 135.37 BB
BB: 172.19 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ K♦

fold, MP raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, MP calls 7.75 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 7♣ K♥
Hero bets 10 BB, MP raises to 29.98 BB, Hero calls 19.98 BB

Turn: (80.95 BB, 2 players) 4♠
Hero checks, MP bets 39.73 BB, Hero ???

Thank U 4 Posting

As a NITTY hero we would need to be aware that our Villains have much more 66 77 98s 67s AA etc hands than KQ-K10 if they understand how to play a NIT preflop in a 3bet pot. Even weaker players call more often to crack those AA.

Versus a nit you expect them to have big hands when they raise so you do not fold 66 77 to a 3 bet as you can then stack them if they are the NIT who cannot fold you risk 8bb to get 135bb.
In this spot as well the other player has the NIT OOP so they can control the pot as they see fit so a wide calling range is very possible here.

The question I would want the answer to in this spot is-is my V a good LAG or even a skilled TAG?
Post flop versus a NIT who folds any player may take this line but if the NIT is sticky only the good LAG's have the strength of skill and courage to get you to lay down AK QQ on this runout.
Weaker players do at times when over playing KQ here get a NIT to fold.

So your range assumptions removing nut like hands here coupled with V bet sizing on flop would suggest we may have a V who maybe less skilled in 3bet range building versus a nit.
Therefore KQ-Kx are more possible as well as AhXh including AhKx so we cannot fold turn and calling is fine as it does keep in bluffs.

This is a spot to spend a lot of time off table gathering all the data we can and doing a very deep analysis of player tendencies and range reading based on those tendencies in 3bet pots OOP.


Hope this helps