This is a discussion on $20 NLHE Full Ring: Second nut flush and shove on the turn, fold? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villain has vpip of 10 but over 8 hands so that doesn't help me at all. Can I fold my second nut flush here?
In this case, the villain only has a card to beat you, I would call without thinking much, I think he is taking advantage of the board to take the pot, it must be said that the call of the raise in the pre-flop put him in a range where AQ is very possible but I think it's worth taking the risk from my point of view
Preflop is pretty close and I would not hate to simply fold against an EP open, when you also have guy left to act behind you. On the flop I would make a much larger bet. You want to charge all those 1 spade draws, sets and whatever not. On the turn its a sigh-call. Yeah he will have that Q of spades sometimes, but the line does look rather bluffy. If I had the absolute nuts on a board like this, I would not pile it in with an overbet. I would give my opponents a better price and then put the rest in on the river.
Turn:($4.77, 3 players) A♠ MP checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $10.82 and is all-in, fold, Hero?
By own experience, I dare to say you are almost never winning here with your second nut flush. Why?
A) No one has a flush with Ks, As or even Js or Ts
B) One is expecting Villain to have a flush with 9s, 8s, 7s and this is not likely. You are never winning here, actually, because we expect much more Qs than 9s.
If Villain is holding 9s and decides to bluff like that doesn't make any sense because CO/Hero can have all the nutted flushes right now.
However, the fold here seems a little bit too nitty because we are drawing to the absolute Royal Flush, in the case Villain is not holding the Queen of Spades.
You gotta feel the situation of the moment, when it happened to know if it is better to muck and move on or call and move on. Thanks.
Yes, you can do it. Because in this hand you only invested 6.76% of your initial stack. Also your SPR on the turn before V's overbet is 4.3, which indicates that you are not absolutely committed to this pot yet and if you decide to give up now, due to a strict reading that it tells you that this villain cannot have another card that not a Qs in his range, the decision will be justified.