€20 NLHE 6-max: What He Could Possibly Have?

[poker_bro]

I just played this: http://mysmp.me/h_prG

Non HUD site, no exact tells. Deep stack and likely good regular.


Interesting hand. He didn't cBet on the flop. I trapped him on the Turn with my two pairs. And then 2e value bet on the River, but then weird thing happened, he made a big raise. What's that? Pure bluff, or did he get 888, or maybe slow played AJ? Straight seems not likely, but possible.

How could you play this hand differently?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I tend to not have much of a flatting range in SB, so for me this would usually be a 3-bet or fold spot, and A9s is a bit borderline against an EP open. But ok you call, and I guess, its not the worst call in the world.

Flop
Standard check to the preflop raiser

Turn
I think, he is going to delay C-bet this card a lot, so I like your check-raise, which is of course strictly for value. We hope, he has a AK/AQ type hand here, and its totally reasonable to go for 3 streets of value with two pair.

River
I dont like sizing your value bet this small, and I also dont like folding. If you think about his range, then all his sets and overpairs would usually have bet the flop, AJ would also have bet the flop, and even QT would have bet the flop. 88 would have folded the turn. So what does he even have here, that beat you? I expect to see some spazz raise, because your bet looked weak, A8 for value or even an overplayed AK/AQ type hand here the majority of the time and for sure often enough to make a profitable call given your pot odds, which was a little better than 2:1.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I agree with Fundiver that your river sizing looks weak (which isn't a bad thing necessarily if you're planning to bet/call). That fact, coupled with his straights being fairly unlikely after he checks back the flop (since we'd expect him to usually c-bet draws without showdown value), make this a good spot to Hero-call against a regular.

Also, from a game theory perspective, you're high in your range given that you didn't 3-bet pre-flop and probably don't have many straights either the way this hand has played. So we're strong enough that against a good player we should consider calling to avoid getting exploited. (I.e. If we fold this hand, what hands are we calling?)

 

[Sidetracked]

Your play up until the river seems OK.

Your river donk sizing does scream weakness, so it's hard to tell whether he's raising for value, or because he thinks you're weak and he can make you fold.

 

[Ianmacca99]

Preflop I like a 3 bet or fold here

On the flop check to the raiser is standard and now I would suggest villan range be capped to AK AQ and underpairs sure delay cbet might be a thing or trapping from time to time but that's a risky play.

Turn- you've made two pair and I like your check raise for value

River- your sizing of 1/3 of the pot looks like a weak blocker type bet and villan could be value betting AK AQ A9 A8 I think it's a call here given your line your towards the top of your range.
You beat alot of villans value hands that he has overplayed we only lose to AJ which would of bet the flop and sets and we have blockers to the 9s pocket 8s probably wouldn't of played this way and folded the turn and wouldn't of bet it in the first place I would of thought. Unlikely Q10 or 10 7 gets there either. He's probably thought he's good with AK AQ or thinks he can get you off whatever your betting.
now if you had bet 60% pot and got raised that looks super strong and places you in a tough spot but you looked weak and he's put you to the test

 

[poker_bro]

Thank you for the great answers.

As I assumed, my river bet was too small. What kind of size you will recommend?

 

[fundiver199]

Somewhere between half pot and 2/3 pot depending on your normal bet sizing and how elastic you think, he is. You obvoiusly dont want him to start folding hands like AK or AQ.