$20 NLHE 6-max: Ranging an opponent on the Turn who Limped PF

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Mercurius

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 55/18/0.33

First post on here so go easy....

Just starting to review 'strange' hands in PT4 as I finish my sessions and this is one I'm struggling on a little as to the correct line on the Turn. Broad context is I was deep stack in BB vs short stacked SB and one limper UTG.

So here it is

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $17.67 (110 bb)
MP: $10.72 (67 bb)
CO: $12.80 (80 bb)
BU: $16.22 (101 bb)
SB: $7.18 (45 bb)
BB (Hero): $36.89 (231 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.40) Hero is BB with 9 T
UTG calls $0.16, 1 fold, CO checks, 1 fold, SB calls $0.08, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.64) A T 5 (4 players)
SB bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.48, 2 players fold, SB calls $0.32

Turn: ($1.60) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.77, SB raises to $3.84, Hero raises to $6.91, SB calls $2.70 (all-in)


My two questions are:
  1. Should this even be a question or should I have just open raised from the BB and ranged my opponents somewhat? I don't see T9o as a BB raise other than the occasional bluff facing steal attempt, however given weak play of UTG and SB maybe I should have been raising here?
  2. Facing the check-raise on the turn with 2 pair and Villain's stack size this felt like a clear shove/fold decision. What is the view on shoving here vs folding?
My thought process for the shove below (expanded afterwards clearly).
My real-time thought process at the table was: Weak player, short stack, probably tried to limp a strong hand like AK/AQ, lets stack off!
  • Being generous and putting Villain on a value heavy range of {A9+,A5, 99+, 55} (Trips, Top pockets, Top 2 pair and Ace strong kicker) at the turn, I'm 55/45 to win and so intuitively feels like a good shove.
  • That said, are they really calling OOP preflop with {JJ+, AQ} rather than open raising?! Removing those puts them on a range that has me a 30/70 underdog. Given they generally seemed a weak player with low aggression, coupled with the fact that AT/A5 are very callable PF, possibly this should have been a fold.
  • Even if you credit Villian with a very strong range removing JJ+ and AQ, I'm getting 2:1 pot odds on the call and we know the chips are going in on the river given their stack would be >25% of pot so again lean towards shoving even if I am behind 30/70 behind as it feels marginal by the math
Thoughts welcome.
 
Edu1

Edu1

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cardschat replayer is a great tool, but now everyone is editing the replay( hiding the names is the first indicative), I don't like that, because how I will know if is true or not? how I will know if the result of my analise is real?
with T9o raise $0.48 with two players to act after? I think this is a not good move
 
Aballinamion

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Line: Checking from the BB and raising OTF limped pot

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 55/18/0.33

First post on here so go easy....

Just starting to review 'strange' hands in PT4 as I finish my sessions and this is one I'm struggling on a little as to the correct line on the Turn. Broad context is I was deep stack in BB vs short stacked SB and one limper UTG.

So here it is

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $17.67 (110 bb)
MP: $10.72 (67 bb)
CO: $12.80 (80 bb)
BU: $16.22 (101 bb)
SB: $7.18 (45 bb)
BB (Hero): $36.89 (231 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.40) Hero is BB with 9 T
UTG calls $0.16, 1 fold, CO checks, 1 fold, SB calls $0.08, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.64) A T 5 (4 players)
SB bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.48, 2 players fold, SB calls $0.32

Turn: ($1.60) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.77, SB raises to $3.84, Hero raises to $6.91, SB calls $2.70 (all-in)


My two questions are:
  1. Should this even be a question or should I have just open raised from the BB and ranged my opponents somewhat? I don't see T9o as a BB raise other than the occasional bluff facing steal attempt, however given weak play of UTG and SB maybe I should have been raising here?
  2. Facing the check-raise on the turn with 2 pair and Villain's stack size this felt like a clear shove/fold decision. What is the view on shoving here vs folding?
My thought process for the shove below (expanded afterwards clearly).
My real-time thought process at the table was: Weak player, short stack, probably tried to limp a strong hand like AK/AQ, lets stack off!
  • Being generous and putting Villain on a value heavy range of {A9+,A5, 99+, 55} (Trips, Top pockets, Top 2 pair and Ace strong kicker) at the turn, I'm 55/45 to win and so intuitively feels like a good shove.
  • That said, are they really calling OOP preflop with {JJ+, AQ} rather than open raising?! Removing those puts them on a range that has me a 30/70 underdog. Given they generally seemed a weak player with low aggression, coupled with the fact that AT/A5 are very callable PF, possibly this should have been a fold.
  • Even if you credit Villian with a very strong range removing JJ+ and AQ, I'm getting 2:1 pot odds on the call and we know the chips are going in on the river given their stack would be >25% of pot so again lean towards shoving even if I am behind 30/70 behind as it feels marginal by the math
Thoughts welcome.

Hello Mercurius, welcome to the CardsChat community and thanks a lot for sharing your hand and ideas.

The Preflop

We are checking a couple of hands from the BB when it comes in limp for us. Usually are trash hands that are not good enough to be raising for steal.

the postflop

The Flop

Irrelevant for ranges involved, ever since players involved on the pot can display any kind of hands, such as AT, A5, T5, 44, 55, KJ, KQ, JT, you name it. So in situations like this we are not raising any kind of hand, because when we do raise from the BB, after we checked preflop, we usually have very significant hands such as AT, A5, that we decided for some reason to check.

Turn

Our hand does improve and there is nothing more to do unless go with all of our stack given the fact our Villain is broken stack/SPR commited. Well played.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
No point in isolating with a hand as bad as T9o. Just take the free play and see, what develops.

Flop
With second pair I am not folding to a min-bet, but I dont see much point in raising it up either. You are never getting them to fold AX, and if you are doing this for value, its to thin. So just call and see, what happen.

Turn
You improved to two pair, but now SB check-raise, and he choose a size, which commits him to the pot. This is pretty gross to be honest. There are no draws at all, so he is most likely doing this with two pair or a set, and most of those hands beat you. I guess, someone like this could have 95 and think, its the nuts, but that is just about it.

As Carlos said, he is a broken stack, but it was a limped pot, so the SPR was still around 10. SPR 10 is not a situation, where you automatically must stack off any two pair even on a dry board. So while I would probably also often jam in real time and then tilt, when I see his hand, if you really want to maximize your winrate, this one is probably a fold.
 
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fundiver199

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As for the math you are jamming around 6$ more to win a pot of around 15$. In a spot like this, I will assume no fold equity, unless he is a crazy maniac, and then you need around 40% equity for this to a break even jam. If his range is 99, A9, T9, 95, then you have 47% according to Flopzilla, so you are good to go.

However if he also have hands, that he sandbagged on the flop, like AT, TT and 55, then it drops to 32%. The truth is probably somewhere in between these numbers, so its not a huge deal, what you do here. I am pretty much ruling out, that a passive fish does this with just top pair, and there are no draws.
 
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Mercurius

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Thanks all - appreciate the responses.

Seems consistent theme that the way it played out I was right to shove / see it out, but probably could have saved myself a lot of pain by flat calling the flop as Villain likely slow plays it through and the pot costs me maybe $1-2 calling down, or they shove on the turn / river and it's easier to walk away if there's only a $1 pot on the turn.

As it happened they did have A9 and so took the pot down - while it wasn't a disaster hand I should have really seen that A5/A9/AT was a huge part of their check-raising range and got away from it....but the trouble stemmed from inflating the pot with the flop raise that didn't make any sense as Fundiver said!
 
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