$20 NLHE 6-max: Ok, now I'm lost

[jer0en72]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/17/1

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players
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gormley11 (UTG): $20.48 (102 bb)
Skajuoker (MP): $20.20 (101 bb)
SvetkaSokol (CO): $26.68 (133 bb)
MilaPoker (BU): $31.71 (159 bb)
dankreas (SB): $39.88 (199 bb)
BOLMike (BB): $20.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30) Hero (MilaPoker) is BTN with 9♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $0.60, 1 fold, BOLMike (BB) 3-bets to $2.34, MilaPoker (BU) calls $1.74

Flop: ($4.78) 5♥ 3♦ 2♠ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) bets $1.36, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $4.08, BOLMike (BB) calls $2.72

Turn: ($12.94) 6♦ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) checks, MilaPoker (BU) bets $6.47, BOLMike (BB) raises to $13.58 (all-in), ?

I don't think there is a 4 in his range so that leaves bluffs and better pairs, maybe a set of 6. Is this always a fold here?

I'm getting a really good price, good enough to call?

Thanks guys!

 

[John A]

There's definitely a 4 in his range. The flop raise is borderline. I don't hate it, but your raising range there in a 3-bet pot isn't super wide. You should be checking the turn IP a lot there. And the reason is because of the exact situation you're in. If you're raised, you're calling it off. You can't bet/fold there.

 

[Sidetracked]

With the button/blind dynamic in play, there are definitely some hands that contain a 4 in his range.

The question is, does he have one of them?

 

[UkoChebuko]

This board (OTF) is bad for you hand. You will be better with 66. And TT of course. This is very "tricky" spot, because you have over pair, but he have good equity with his bluffs. And you don't know how much he will bluffing. With which hands. He have draw, not "overcards". In the reality. He have hands, which will crush you, and draw. Pretty ugly spot, don't you think!? Do some calculations...And you decide to raise...

As played, OTT, I don't know why you bet. I can't understand. IMO check-back...As played, fold vs raise imo. I can see how this will be call with enough equity. Looks dumb to fold, but what you can do...You can pay, to see his cards. That you can do...

 

[pandapower99]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/17/1

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

gormley11 (UTG): $20.48 (102 bb)
Skajuoker (MP): $20.20 (101 bb)
SvetkaSokol (CO): $26.68 (133 bb)
MilaPoker (BU): $31.71 (159 bb)
dankreas (SB): $39.88 (199 bb)
BOLMike (BB): $20.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30) Hero (MilaPoker) is BTN with 9♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $0.60, 1 fold, BOLMike (BB) 3-bets to $2.34, MilaPoker (BU) calls $1.74

Flop: ($4.78) 5♥ 3♦ 2♠ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) bets $1.36, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $4.08, BOLMike (BB) calls $2.72

Turn: ($12.94) 6♦ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) checks, MilaPoker (BU) bets $6.47, BOLMike (BB) raises to $13.58 (all-in), ?

I don't think there is a 4 in his range so that leaves bluffs and better pairs, maybe a set of 6. Is this always a fold here?

I'm getting a really good price, good enough to call?

Thanks guys!

Preflop is standard. On the flop you should never be rasing here with any hands. Villain can have A4s suited in his range as he 3bet pre, but shouldnt really have any other 4s and based on those stats he probably doesnt.

Villains range here is weighted to overpairs and overcards with a FD ( but this is less likely). Villain rarely has sets here but again its possible. You should be looking to get to a cheap showdown with your hand. Call flop, if he checks turn check behind and call any reasonable river bet.

As played im probably not folding but I expect to beat alot

 

[c0rnBr34d]

There's definitely a 4 in his range. The flop raise is borderline. I don't hate it, but your raising range there in a 3-bet pot isn't super wide. You should be checking the turn IP a lot there. And the reason is because of the exact situation you're in. If you're raised, you're calling it off. You can't bet/fold there.

John - I agree with this in general but against a guy with an aggression factor of 1 even though we've dug a deep hole I'm not sure if it's worse to call it off or cut our losses. Our $7.11 call represents almost 18% of the pot. I really don't expect this guy to show up with many bluffs in a 3 bet pot when we raise flop and essentially commit on the turn (very little fold equity left). We have less than 10% equity against over pairs and A4s and 2/3 of that equity is chopped pots - rake (losses). Even if we add AdKd and AdQd as bluffs we are well short of 18%. Against a balanced aggressive V with bluffs I agree we can never fold as played but against a passive guy with an aggression factor of 1 I think it's much closer. I wouldn't have raised the flop into an uncapped range and barreled a blank turn here but if somehow I found myself here I think I let this go if the sample is over 300 hands. At what point are you drawing your line to be committed? And does that vary at all depending on the V player type we are facing?

OP - This looks like a perfect run out to call down in position. You may get V to check some rivers depending on the run out or V may check the turn then bet river. I wouldn't be in such a rush to stack off with all my one pair hands, especially in a 3 bet pot vs an uncapped range from a passive player. When we raise flop we are setting up to do just that. And when we barrel turn it's conceivable we could get called by worse but when we get raised by a passive V we are mostly toast. What was Vs 3bet percentage?

 

[jer0en72]

John - I agree with this in general but against a guy with an aggression factor of 1 even though we've dug a deep hole I'm not sure if it's worse to call it off or cut our losses. Our $7.11 call represents almost 18% of the pot. I really don't expect this guy to show up with many bluffs in a 3 bet pot when we raise flop and essentially commit on the turn (very little fold equity left). We have less than 10% equity against over pairs and A4s and 2/3 of that equity is chopped pots - rake (losses). Even if we add AdKd and AdQd as bluffs we are well short of 18%. Against a balanced aggressive V with bluffs I agree we can never fold as played but against a passive guy with an aggression factor of 1 I think it's much closer. I wouldn't have raised the flop into an uncapped range and barreled a blank turn here but if somehow I found myself here I think I let this go if the sample is over 300 hands. At what point are you drawing your line to be committed? And does that vary at all depending on the V player type we are facing?

OP - This looks like a perfect run out to call down in position. You may get V to check some rivers depending on the run out or V may check the turn then bet river. I wouldn't be in such a rush to stack off with all my one pair hands, especially in a 3 bet pot vs an uncapped range from a passive player. When we raise flop we are setting up to do just that. And when we barrel turn it's conceivable we could get called by worse but when we get raised by a passive V we are mostly toast. What was Vs 3bet percentage?

V 3bet % was 5...

Thank you guys for all your replies. One more example of me getting carried away with mediocre hands against a player who doesn't have many bluffs in his range....

 

[Aballinamion]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/17/1

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

gormley11 (UTG): $20.48 (102 bb)
Skajuoker (MP): $20.20 (101 bb)
SvetkaSokol (CO): $26.68 (133 bb)
MilaPoker (BU): $31.71 (159 bb)
dankreas (SB): $39.88 (199 bb)
BOLMike (BB): $20.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30) Hero (MilaPoker) is BTN with 9♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $0.60, 1 fold, BOLMike (BB) 3-bets to $2.34, MilaPoker (BU) calls $1.74

Flop: ($4.78) 5♥ 3♦ 2♠ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) bets $1.36, MilaPoker (BU) raises to $4.08, BOLMike (BB) calls $2.72

Turn: ($12.94) 6♦ (2 players)
BOLMike (BB) checks, MilaPoker (BU) bets $6.47, BOLMike (BB) raises to $13.58 (all-in), ?

I don't think there is a 4 in his range so that leaves bluffs and better pairs, maybe a set of 6. Is this always a fold here?

I'm getting a really good price, good enough to call?

Thanks guys!

Who is the player in the Big Blind who made the 3-bet preflop is the big question here.
Because Big Blind utilizes a salty price of 3.9x 3-bet preflop out of position, so without further ado we can easily put Big Blind/Villain into some range of TT+ and AJs+, for example.
It is possible to BB to be stealing preflop? Yes, but given the sizing chosen, it doesn't seem like a wide range trying to get the chips preflop uncontested.

On the Flop:

We cannot be raising here just because the flop came lower, with low cards on it.
Remember, if we really had the best hands we would be 4-betting preflop, so we cannot represent anything too much scary, we (almost) never have the nuts for this flop (A4, 64), and we can have sometimes a couple of sets, with 55, 33 and 22 and we aren't raising this flop a 100% of times with Sets and Two Pair because we want Villain to keep its TT+ and bluffs such as AJs+.
When we do raise OTF we are turning a juicy value hand (99 for this flop), into a horrible bluff, and we must ask ourselves why we do decide to be leveling on a simple situation like this.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa