$20 NLHE 6-max: I need some TURN decision advice...

R

razzor94

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poker stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
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So only a 100 hands on the guy and his stats are pretty nitty 21/13.
He steals 21% and fold to 3bet 67%.
Analyzing the hand I would say it's a pretty easy fold on the river but I ask myself could I or should I play turn more optimally somehow.
So I am thinking after the 2/3 cbet he's folding all the A highs except AcKx and AcQx.
The turn completes the flush and I feel I missplay these spots constantly.
Should I check or bet and for how much ?

Hero (SB): $22.26 (139.1 bb)
BB: $16.16 (101 bb)
UTG: $16.16 (101 bb)
MP: $118.51 (740.7 bb)
CO: $17 (106.3 bb)
BTN: $56.69 (354.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K
spade4.gif
K
diamond4.gif

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.48, Hero raises to $1.60, BB folds, BTN calls $1.12

Flop: ($3.36) 7
diamond4.gif
6
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7
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.41, BTN calls $2.41

Turn: ($8.18) 3
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.36, Hero calls $3.36

River: ($14.90) 4
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.24, Hero folds

Results: $14.90 pot ($0.67 rake)
Final Board: 7
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6
club4.gif
7
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3
club4.gif
4
diamond4.gif

Hero mucked K
spade4.gif
K
diamond4.gif
and lost (-$7.37 net)
BTN mucked and won $14.23 ($6.86 net)
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

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Can't complain about the play preflop or on the flop. The question is what does Villain call the 3 bet and then call a 2/3s pot c-bet? It's 6 handed, Villain has position and only folds to 3-bet 1/3 of the time. Some of that is because he generally plays decent hands. Let's call it 12%. with 55+ A5s+ AJo+KQ, & KJs.

On the flop Villain is winning with 6-AA, 2-A7s and is losing with 8-flush, draws 6-QQ, 6-JJ, & 6-TT. I like the c-bet, but the flush card sucks. Now Hero is even at best and there is a decision to be made. If one calls the turn one needs to call the river on a blank. Hero got the blank but folded. Only 2 outs to improve a pocket pair, so almost always what one has on the turn is what one has on the river.

iMHO, either fold the turn, or call the river.
 
R

razzor94

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Can't complain about the play preflop or on the flop. The question is what does Villain call the 3 bet and then call a 2/3s pot c-bet? It's 6 handed, Villain has position and only folds to 3-bet 1/3 of the time. Some of that is because he generally plays decent hands. Let's call it 12%. with 55+ A5s+ AJo+KQ, & KJs.

On the flop Villain is winning with 6-AA, 2-A7s and is losing with 8-flush, draws 6-QQ, 6-JJ, & 6-TT. I like the c-bet, but the flush card sucks. Now Hero is even at best and there is a decision to be made. If one calls the turn one needs to call the river on a blank. Hero got the blank but folded. Only 2 outs to improve a pocket pair, so almost always what one has on the turn is what one has on the river.

iMHO, either fold the turn, or call the river.

He folds to 3bet 67% so he folds 2/3 of the time. Still our estimated post range for the villain is pretty much the same except I gave him 66+ and A9s+ so he doesn't have any trips in his range.
Folding KK on the turn for that size just feels weak. Maybe you are right but the guy is still an unknown so he might be doing this with 88+ to deny equity. People usually check back nut FD here like AcXx so I don't think he has any bluffs on the turn or river.
What do you think about betting the turn myself for 1/3 pot ?
 
TheBigFinn

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He folds to 3bet 67% so he folds 2/3 of the time. Still our estimated post range for the villain is pretty much the same except I gave him 66+ and A9s+ so he doesn't have any trips in his range.

Folding KK on the turn for that size just feels weak. Maybe you are right but the guy is still an unknown so he might be doing this with 88+ to deny equity. People usually check back nut FD here like AcXx so I don't think he has any bluffs on the turn or river.
What do you think about betting the turn myself for 1/3 pot ?

1/3 on the turn is too small and looks weak to me. I actually like checking, but my point is, when Villain bets, Hero needs to either fold or determine he is committed to check calling the river.

What happens if Villain just calls your 1/3 turn turn bet? Do you check call the river? Folding then loses you a little less, but doesn't gain any real information. The pot on the river is ~$13.60.

But what happens if villain re-raises to say $9, about half your remaining stack. If you call you are giving yourself the odds to call the river no matter what. If you want to bet it needs to look like you are setting up a pot size bet on the river.

Hero started with $22.26 and has $4.01 invested in the $8.18 starting turn pot. If Hero bets $5.75 on the river and is called, the river pot is $19.68 and Hero has $12.75 behind. I'd check fold the river, losing a little more, but defining Villain's hand. I'd also fold to a turn shove.
 
B

blackburn44

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i check/call turn. but with 4 in the river, i fold to a shoove.
 
eetenor

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Bet sizing

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So only a 100 hands on the guy and his stats are pretty nitty 21/13.
He steals 21% and fold to 3bet 67%.
Analyzing the hand I would say it's a pretty easy fold on the river but I ask myself could I or should I play turn more optimally somehow.
So I am thinking after the 2/3 cbet he's folding all the A highs except AcKx and AcQx.
The turn completes the flush and I feel I missplay these spots constantly.
Should I check or bet and for how much ?

Hero (SB): $22.26 (139.1 bb)
BB: $16.16 (101 bb)
UTG: $16.16 (101 bb)
MP: $118.51 (740.7 bb)
CO: $17 (106.3 bb)
BTN: $56.69 (354.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K
spade4.gif
K
diamond4.gif

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.48, Hero raises to $1.60, BB folds, BTN calls $1.12

Flop: ($3.36) 7
diamond4.gif
6
club4.gif
7
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.41, BTN calls $2.41

Turn: ($8.18) 3
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.36, Hero calls $3.36

River: ($14.90) 4
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.24, Hero folds

Results: $14.90 pot ($0.67 rake)
Final Board: 7
diamond4.gif
6
club4.gif
7
club4.gif
3
club4.gif
4
diamond4.gif

Hero mucked K
spade4.gif
K
diamond4.gif
and lost (-$7.37 net)
BTN mucked and won $14.23 ($6.86 net)


Thank you for posting.
This is a great hand to really go into deep analysis. I will just mention some of the starter points.

We need direct data beyond the hud on villains habits like bet sizing.

How does this villain regard your 2/3 pot flop bet. What do they 2/3 pot flop bet?
If villain sees flop bet as a I have AK please fold what would villain do?
On turn you check after making 2/3 pot bet. What does villain think you have now?
On River if villain still thinks you have AK and villain has a flush what bet sizing would villain use?

The river card brings a four to a straight and already a three flush which villain bet. Why would villain still think they could value bet 2/3 pot on river and get called?

Does villain make these kinds of bet sizing mistakes? Have you seen villain show down a hand where they bet the wrong amount on the river? Or have they repeatedly bet players out of pots on river when they were ahead?

767 flop why do we think we can get value from a 2/3 pot bet?
What bet size might we choose to show strength but also get value most of the time?
What hands does villain not 4bet? Of the ones we beat how likely are they to turn those into bluffs?

Hope this helps.

:):)
 
Q

quant1986

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I think you played this hand well.

River probably not a must fold depending on villain bluffing tendencies. If you think villain could bluff with hands like AsJs other than T9, any Ac, then KK should be in your river bluff-catch range.
 
bbennie1

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Some hand variables that beat you.

AA (6), 77 (1), 66 (3), 33 (3), 44(3) = 16
AK-AT-Q10 clubs = 9, so 25 hand variables beat you.

AK-AT-Q10 off with a club = 9x6=54
QQ-88 with a club= 5x6=30, so 30+54=84 that could've possibly in some universe semi-bluffed/valued the turn.

So total hand combinations = 25+84= 109
You beat 84= 77%
Beats you 25= 23%

Your pot odds: 29%.
According to this, it would be a call.

But this is purely based on the mindset that he would bluff with any of those type of hand combinations. Even though, I agree with Quant1986 here.

I may have messed up the math here but in case you're confused on how it works..

With connectors the formula is:

A=available cards for the first card
A =available cards for the second card

A₁ x A

So 4x4=16 is the max

With pairs:
A= available cards

A(A-1):2

So
4x(4-1):2
4x3:2
12:2

6 is the max.

Playing around with software like Pokerstove, which is free, might help you visualize the math better.
 
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