€20 NLHE 6-max: cbet/no cbet this mw pot, my thinking

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ComplexPlaya

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/14/2

BB is a 17/14/2, CO a 70/23/1

UTG: €20.73
MP: €21.36
CO: €49.99
BTN: €21.18
Hero (SB): €24.01
BB: €23.44

Hero posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has Q:club: K:diamond:

fold, fold, CO calls €0.20, fold, Hero raises to €1.00, BB calls €0.80, CO calls €0.80

Flop: (€3.00, 3 players) 4:diamond: 2:diamond: A:spade:
Hero bets €1.50

On this flop I was thinking BB's range shouldn't have too many Ax, mostly pocket pairs that either hit or miss, and he's not going to get creative with the big fish after him

While for the 70/23 guy it's a standard cbet on an ace-rags board. The flop does have a FD and wheel draw but it's not that dangerous with the 4 or 2 in there, and it's an auto-cbet HU with anyone. So if I bet half pot here I only need it to work more than 33% of the time. Good/bad line ?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Not a fan of it tbh. You're going to get floated quite a bit I would think in addition to all their TP/legit draw hands.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Not a fan of it tbh. You're going to get floated quite a bit I would think in addition to all their TP/legit draw hands.

You think the reg would float me with the big fish behind him? That was a big part of my motive, thinking he would play it honest here
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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You think the reg would float me with the big fish behind him? That was a big part of my motive, thinking he would play it honest here
Yeah I do. I think it has to be a decent part of his plan when he flats preflop. I mean I'd imagine he knows you don't have to be all that strong to raise the fish so he can't just give up when you cbet.
 
ChuckTs

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Dunno about pure floats, but the fish alone will have tons of Ax, and clearly will be playing the majority of suited hands, so I just give up. I generally won't cbet this without at least like a pair+GS or maybe even just FDs or better.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Dunno about pure floats, but the fish alone will have tons of Ax, and clearly will be playing the majority of suited hands, so I just give up. I generally won't cbet this without at least like a pair+GS or maybe even just FDs or better.

KK, that goes for HU vs the bad player too ?
 
ChuckTs

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Well depending on what we think he peels flop with, he can 'hit' this board anywhere from like %50 down to the low %20s, according to flopzilla. I generally cbet this as a default but it definitely could be a mistake without a good plan on various turns (ie barreling big turns, playing our turned pairs accordingly, etc, instead of just cbetting/giving up).
 
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TorreyB

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The cbet on the flop is a bad idea. The fish will most likely call your cbet, and the best you could hope for is a backdoor flush or straight. Even with the backdoor draws your equity won't be high enough to even continue with most turn cards that come out. The tighter villian most likely has a hand that is beating yours currently, so checking to see the turn card is smartest option to avoid losing more money.
 
LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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I personally like a c-bet here. BB is likely going to float us if he sees us as solid but with a second barrel is folding all of his pairs. I'm barrelling every diamond, TJQ and K which is like 60% of the time.

Fish like to fold against an ace unless they have it and he's limp calling so wide here imo. Even if he does call the flop we're often value betting against JQ anyway unless you have a specific read he plays fit or fold.
 
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