$2 NLHE Full Ring: What is your opinion should there be a value bet or not on the river?

[Vallet]

$2 NLHE Full Ring: What is your opinion should there be a value bet or not on the river?

I did not make a value bet on the river because I will only get value from a pair of kings. Also, two pairs can be in the opponent's range (for example, KQ). Considering his flop play. But turn and river turned out to be dangerous even for two pairs.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/724WITBY8

 

[gustav197poker]

In preflop the opening is acceptable, although 3x with at least 100 bb is always recommended.
On the flop as we play we are not representing many sets, as these should 3-bet at a high frequency.
On the other hand, the V range is a bit capped, which indicates that in this case the hands that raise you will generally be value oriented.
On the turn the readings begin. Now V bet a size slightly larger than half the pot. At this point our call is a bit marginal (considering our entire range). Because if we have a major spade blocker, combined with a pair that we have floated on the flop, it may be the right time to recover lost value from our small cbet.
Therefore V is still betting neutral and when we call, we have a bluff catcher most of the time.
On the river the Tc favors range V. Because now it is more likely that we have called with hands like: KT; JT; AT (with A of spades, but we actually know that the latter is not possible).
Therefore when V checks, he is possibly giving up against better hands but he could also be looking to catch us with a bluff (a failed draw for example). So we are not winning enough EV when V only calls with better hands. So our aces should reach the showdown and then we see the opponent's hand.
If we think that we could get value from hands like KJ or K9 we should have some specific reading that this player pay very wide.
Greetings.

 

[loafaBREAD]

You should be betting bigger on the flop. V will defend very wide with one pair or draws. I think 2/3 is acceptable on this texture.

Then the turn will be bigger. Given your flop small bet, you should be betting quite large on the turn, perhaps even an overbet.

If we bet 2/3 on the flop, we can do the same on the turn.

On the river you are right to say that there are few worse hands that can call. So I'd check. But I'd also have a bigger pot to take down when I do, since I bet bigger on earlier streets.

KQ8ss is not a 25% Cbet spot BTN v BB. Those boards are spread out with one high card... K72r is an excellent example.

KQ8s BB can continue wide, so our bet size reflects that.