$2 NLHE Full Ring: TT weird 3-way pot

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krakenba

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Hey guys

Had a really weird hand, analysed it and still not sure what's to do. It's very in-depth and would love feedback on the thinking post flop, what you would have done and why

Hand:

9 players
UTG - Hero
UTG+2 - 1st caller
MP1 - 2nd caller

Hero - :10h4: :10s4:

I raise 3x pre-flop. Have about 60 hands experience with both players, so constructed their ranges to be (not the standard correct range I know but assume it's this from reads of playstyle and hud stats):

UTG+2 - QQ-22,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo-AJo,KQo
MP1 - 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KQo

This is their calling ranges perceived, for UTG+2 he liked calling strong cards and only 3-bet KK/AA. MP1 called a lot and didn't 3-bet ever

Flop - :4s4: :3s4: :5c4: (4 & 3 spades, 5 clubs)


I bet 1/3 pot, UTG+2 raises 5x, MP1 flat calls

If MP1 had folded I would have shoved, but the MP1 calling felt like a trap. Overall I went with a tight fold but personally think I was right to.



After using equilab pre-flop, equity is about 1/3 each

I think for the raise, UTG+2 has QQ-33,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs (All suited cards are spades)

For the flat after the raise, MP1 has 33+,AKs AK of any suit, any suited combo of spades I think goes all in

Equity post flop: Hero (21%), UTG+2 (37%), MP1 (42%)


Their actual hands
UTG+2 - :as4: :qs4:
MP1 - :7h4: :7c4:


Help wanted

1) Do you construct the same range post flop? What's different?
2) Do you think there's much random stuff that happens here? As in a random bluff by UTG+2, say with the Ace of spades
3) Would you have shoved if MP1 had folded?
4) Do you fold, call on raise after the reraise on the flop?

I think that calling would leave a tougher decision on the turn for most cards in the deck, but can still see it


Thanks for your comments in advance
 
TenJack

TenJack

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Ok, lets start with building a an image of the 2 villains.

UTG sounds like a semi-tight idiot. If he only 3-bets Aces and Kings he is super expolitable pre. (I.e if you have TT and he 3-bets you can comfortably fold knowing that he only does this with premium, class I hands.)

MP1 sounds loose, cant tell abot aggro. If he is flat calling with so much just suited junk and Broadway cards (as well as never 3-betting) i would guess that he is fairly passive.

I will skip to the flop. We lead, which is okay. It needs to be bigger, though, flush and str8 draws are getting good odds, and a lot of junk like KQ still has a lot of equity and we want to fold those out. Not a slam-dunk value spot but we are ahead vs. most of both villains ranges. (Only beat by JJ+, 33,44,55, 76)

I don't think you are going to see a lot of random crap with people holding a single big spade. Especially at nl2 vs a duo of maybe-passive guys. I would say that raises here are either sets straights and overpairs, and maybe AsKs/ AsQs sometimes.

Now, for shoving: that might just be the stupidest thing you could possibly do in this spot! If we shove, what calls? Maybe AA, KK that we have 2 outs against, 33,44,55, and 76. We are screwed versus ALL of those hands, the only thing that might call us is AsXs, which we are still flipping with! (35% equity with the flush draw, 8 outs to a bigger pair assuming AJs+) We fold out weaker overpairs like 99, 88, 77, and are left with a V. range we can't touch.

I would probably fold flop as well. If we call, there are SO many crappy turn cards: We c-fold any 6,7, 2, A, K, or spade on the turn.
 
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