Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 72/4/2

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.30 (65 bb)
MP: $2.48 (124 bb)
CO: $0.91 (46 bb)
BU: $1.86 (93 bb)
SB: $0.34 (17 bb)
BB (Hero): $1.30 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 9♠ A♦
UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.08) A♠ 5♣ 4♠ (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.04, UTG calls $0.04, 2 players fold

Turn: ($0.16) 5♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.06, UTG raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.06

River: ($0.40) J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, UTG raises to $1.12 (all-in), BB (Hero) folds


This super fish was playing alot of hands.As of the past few days I am putting my attention and focus into villain's VPIP and what % of their ranges actually hits the community cards.
It is a confusing and difficult process for me to grasp and I would appreciate any input about it. Anyways fish limps,2 others call and we see a flop. I get a pair of A and bet-half pot , probably should have gone PSB but I also didn't want to commit too much into an un-raised pot first to act. Fish calls and everybody folds, his range is so wide I don't even know if I can give a range that hit this board its not his first time calling my bet like this.
When the 5 comes on the turn pairing the board I make another small bet figuring fish has nothing and I want to get him to just call but then he min-raises me to $0.12 and I start to think does he have the 5 or a flush? there's no way this guy is playing everything. I call and the river brings another spade so now I have a 9-high flush I bet half pot and villain shoves all-in and I folded . There were only 3 cards that beat me was this fold a mistake? I feel like the fish was just reading my low bets as a weakness and trying to exploit me thinking I had a weak hand, maybe I should just keep my betting patterns standard to 2/3 pot or full pot in these situation? idk it was kind of tricky because it was an un-raised pot and I didn't want to commit too much to begin with but I ended up doing so .any input appreciated. What do you give this villain, does he stuff in this position?

When I open up Flopzilla and give villain a VPIP of 60 instead of his 72( 25hands played)on the turn he has no made hand 2/3 of the time, top pair 14% of the time, 3 of a kind 5% and a flush 4.30%, should I be calling him based on these stats alone? it seems like he has nothing a majority of the time so then it is a profitable call? he had a AF:2 (aggression factor of 2 thus far, not very high) so should we give him credit for something? I don't want to just ignore his bets and assume its air but the stats are saying its pretty low for him to have stuff here, and if he does have stuff then we just call and accept he sucked out with his 5%flush and move on ??

Don't go broke an a limped pot. I like the river fold but I think we can avoid this spot fairly easily by not actively trying to build such a large pot OOP with a marginal hand in the first place. V is super loose passive and fishy but when he starts raising us he's still allowed to have a hand sometimes. The fact that his PFR and 3b are so low imply he is very passive. So when we bet twice and get raised we should not be only focused on how wide he was pre. Have we seen this V bluff before? When they show aggression how strong have they been? It's only 25 hands we have to go on and I don't like our line.

I prefer to raise pre and lead two streets. As played flop lead is ok but we are 4 ways and the turn isn't great. I probably switch to x/c turn and river in a limped pot. Setting up a stack off with a 9 high flush in a 4 way limped pot seems really bad. I guess we have to call the turn min raise but leading river against a fish seems like a bad plan as well. They are never folding a flush so we are hoping to charge trips only (very thin). We could induce spaz as well and then have to fold since our relative hand strength is just not great. Just seems super light to try and apply this much pressure here vs a relatively fishy unknown. V can easily show up with bigger flushes, fishy trips, and boats or even quads as played. 25 hands is almost nothing to go on.

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

Don't go broke an a limped pot. I like the river fold but I think we can avoid this spot fairly easily by not actively trying to build such a large pot OOP with a marginal hand in the first place. V is super loose passive and fishy but when he starts raising us he's still allowed to have a hand sometimes. The fact that his PFR and 3b are so low imply he is very passive. So when we bet twice and get raised we should not be only focused on how wide he was pre. Have we seen this V bluff before? When they show aggression how strong have they been? It's only 25 hands we have to go on and I don't like our line.

I prefer to raise pre and lead two streets. As played flop lead is ok but we are 4 ways and the turn isn't great. I probably switch to x/c turn and river in a limped pot. Setting up a stack off with a 9 high flush in a 4 way limped pot seems really bad. I guess we have to call the turn min raise but leading river against a fish seems like a bad plan as well. They are never folding a flush so we are hoping to charge trips only (very thin). We could induce spaz as well and then have to fold since our relative hand strength is just not great. Just seems super light to try and apply this much pressure here vs a relatively fishy unknown. V can easily show up with bigger flushes, fishy trips, and boats or even quads as played. 25 hands is almost nothing to go on.

thank you for the advice and feedback, I think your right it was probrably best to check call instead of what I did that makes sense, I know 25 hands is not alot to go off of but that is part of the reason I actually decreased his VPIP for flopzilla by 15% and this players VPIP did not decrease much for the next dozen or two hands I played after this hand before I left the table. I don't think I was focused on how wide he was pre-flop I input his calling VPIP range into Flopzilla and input my hole card along with the board and listed off some of the percentages of what he would hold. I know its not that simple because those are just stats and villain has re-raised us on the turn but I am trying to workout probabilities as I go through hands so I can get a better understand of what is likely versus less likely against villains because one of my biggest weaknesses is overfolding I often get paranoid that villain always has trips or the nuts. I just don't know is our relative hand strength not that great here? 25 hands doesnt tell us much about his aggression factor either right? so he could technically be doing this with worse hands? idk just fishing for more information , thanks to all who reply

Not sure if you're familiar with the baluga theorem but here it is https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32/beginners-questions/baluga-theorem-what-562498/

If you don't want to fold the turn, then you should probably just believe that your pair isn't good here. As played though, I might c/c the river but I'd likely just give up depending on his bet sizing

Raise pre, don't lead river, and snapfold to the shove now. Other than that well played.

When someone in early position limps in early position in a lot of cases, you're looking at suited connectors or small pocket pairs. It feels to me as to this is what they had and could have had a set on the flop or hit the set on the turn.

On the other hand, you disguised your A pretty well. They probably don't put you on an A and think they're 77 is good.

Lastly, it could put them on a flush draw on the flop. This puts you in a super tough position.

Just grin and mash the fold button on the turn when you get raised. I just saved your stack, at the cost of a small possible win. Top pair weak kicker is a marginal hand. Don't get married to it.

Preflop
You can go two ways here. When original limper is this wide, you can certainly isolate A9 for value. Get the other guys out of the hand, make the fish put more money in behind. Being out of position with A9 offsuit can be a little bit rough though, so there is nothing wrong either with keeping the pot small and not invest anything, until you have seen a flop.

Flop
I like leading the flop, but I would probably go a little larger than half pot. They are not calling half pot with hands, that completely missed, and if they have something, they are calling a somewhat larger bet as well.

Turn
If you break down the range of hands, he is likely calling with on the flop, its top pair, second pair and draws. Could be even wider, since he is fish, but these are the hands, he will pretty much always continue with. Flush draw got there, and second pair is now trips, so this was a pretty bad card for you. You could still have the best hand, but its more of a bluff catcher now, and with a bluff catcher you check and call, you dont bet.

River
You rivered a 9 high flush, but with a 1-liner on the board, a paired board and a situation, where he raised you on the turn, your hand is still only a bluff catcher, so you should still check. Instead you made a donk bet, which is almost turning your hand into a bluff. As played a clear fold. A ton of different hands beat you, you are getting a bad price, and he has been telling a consistent story throughout the hand. Even a very loose player can make a big hand, and apparently this time he did.

Preflop I just go as it is too. I don't like to raise here.
On flop I check, I know that this is passive but top pair medium kicker, limped spot, 4 players.
If I have 2 pair or set I'm betting hard on limped spots, 3/4 to full pot size on flop and every street.
But here I don't want to build this up. I check call till the end if very cheap, else check call check give up.
As played I don't like the lead on river. Check fold or check call if he bets anything like 4c xD, you never know with these players haha.
I know his stats are lol and frustrating but we need solid holdings and plays to bust him. I'm sure he plays like crazy all the time, so we are waiting the good hand and we 'll get our chance, unless someone stacks him before us xD.

Btw, why are you not full stack? :P

Originally Posted by moulan7

On flop I check, I know that this is passive but top pair medium kicker, limped spot, 4 players.

There is certainly nothing wrong with checking the flop. I do think, we can lead here for value and to deny equity and thin the field, but as you say, it is somewhat marginal. I am not worried about SB, because he have almost no money, and if he somehow can beat A9, then good for him. But the other two guys are a bit deeper, and we can certainly not rule out, that one of them limped in with a better ace than ours. After all a 72/4 hardly ever raise before the flop, so this is the kind of player, who might even from time to time show up with AK and put huge egg all over our face on a A high flop.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

After all a 72/4 hardly ever raise before the flop, so this is the kind of player, who might even from time to time show up with AK and put huge egg all over our face on a A high flop.

Exactly one of my concerns because of his all hands limp stats. (for this player we don't need stats, we see him all the time limping, calling and playing in every hand xD)
I prefer to see my hand as the bluff catcher even if we definitely have enough strength here.

agree with the others, c/c turn. As played you need to fold right away on the turn, all draws made it - this is a big reason to check in the first place, you have to fold to a raise.

Google Baluga Theorem

The Beluga Theorem is good at the lower levels and likely applies to this player. The question is what did he hit on the turn and whether he improved on the river. Worst case scenario is a straight flush, quads, or boats. Best case scenario is a fish throwing their entire stack in against a coordinated board with a weaker flush. I don't see fish with trips or straights betting this way on this kind of board, so I would be expecting a full house at the very least.

This isn't really a Beluga Theorem situation when the board pairs on the turn. This theorem specifically applies to 1 pair hands. While the gist of it is still relevant I think this spot is unique enough to be discussed on it's own merits. We technically have two pair and a flush draw on the turn. We still need to respect the raise but with two pair vs one pair hands there are a lot more cards that can drastically change things. An Ace or 5 change our hand to a full house for example. Along with the spade draw and the board potentially helping vs hands like AT where we could play the river J kicker if it wasn't a spade.

As played I am not folding to that min-raise on the turn. Our pot odds are simply to good, and he is a fish, so only god know, what he might show up with from time to time. The more important point is to not bet the turn, because if we do not bet, he can not raise.