$2 NLHE Full Ring: Interesting hand, is bluffing this river viable?

[Casey55]

Don't have tracking software for stats, just recently sat down so pretty unknown villain.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.39 (70 bb)
UTG+1: $4.07 (204 bb)
MP: $2.61 (131 bb)
MP+1: $2.68 (134 bb)
LP: $2.18 (109 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU (Hero): $1.53 (77 bb)
SB: $2.55 (128 bb)
BB: $1.97 (99 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with T♣ J♣
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.10, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.10, 1 fold, BB calls $0.08, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.41) 9♥ 9♣ J♥ (4 players)
BB bets $0.02, UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 2 players fold

Turn: ($0.85) K♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.85) 2♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero.........???

what do we put villain on ? should I bluff this river ?

 

[fundiver199]

Since he checked twice, he probably dont have anything really good like a boat or the nut flush. Besides that he could have anything, that he would open from early position and then C-bet into 3 opponents. You could consider turning your hand into a bluff. It does have a little bit of showdown value but not much, and it is one of the worst hands, you can have.

 

[fast_frog]

He showed very good strength on the flop by raising in a 4-way spot, you don't want to try to bluff him of a 9; he could easily have a 9 or J with a heart kicker or the nuts as well.

Most importantly, people don't fold nearly as much as they should so just don't try to push them off hands, even if GTO this may be a good bluff.

 

[moulan7]

It's a good spot for bluff. You have some show down value of course too and he might hold something like lets say 1010 with a heart (just saying, you block that) which will probably call with.
But don't bluff at 2nl unless you are 100% sure that your opponent is a thinking player who can actually fold.
If you bluff I guess you need to go for a large bet of 75% of the flop to make it believable since the turn was checked.

 

[Casey55]

Ok thank you guys what bet sizing would you choose here for abluff?

 

[moulan7]

Ok thank you guys what bet sizing would you choose here for abluff?

What would you bet if you had the flush and check the turn (meaning that you lost value there) xD. I think 65c is ok. But again, don't do that on every spot like that. 2nl is not good for bluffs and ABC is more profitable most of the times.

 

[Casey55]

yeah I see what your saying your right, it also depends on the player but generally probably not the best idea ,i ended up going 50c and villain tanked til his time bank was about to be over and called with QQ Qh, I think he almost folded it I wonder if I could have gotten him off with 150% pot, idk will make sure villains are capable of folding on future bluffs

 

[moulan7]

wow jeez, he had the second nuts lol. (i don't count full houses nah xD)
well this type of player for example is great to bluff against xD.
Sad that he had a hand.

probably you could make him fold with an overbet but I don't recommend it xD

 

[fundiver199]

If he tanked with QhQx, this was a brilliant bluff. You just happened to run into the top of his range. Your goal is not to get a hand like that to fold. You are mainly targeting hands, that have a better two pair than yours, like QQ without Qh.

 

[Casey55]

Yes, I was mainly targeting alot of his Kx hands I thought of broadway hands with a K were a possibility and AK . I started to to think he didnt have a heart when he got passive on me on the turn but Iguess it was because he had QQ LOL

 

[fast_frog]

If he tanked with QhQx, this was a brilliant bluff.

This is bad/dangerous thinking imo. the definition of results oriented. It would be a good bluff if he knew before making it he was going to tank with QQ and presumably fold mid-flushes down.

The only question to ask is will I get a fold ~40% of the time (what he needed with a 50c bet plus rake) from the average 2nl opponent? I think the answer is no as their worst hand is likely AJ without a heart, and if that avg villain calls with 9+ you don't get near enough to 40%

 

[Haze777s]

Ok thank you guys what bet sizing would you choose here for abluff?

I think a bet the size of a Bank would be optimal

 

[fast_frog]

Yes, I was mainly targeting alot of his Kx hands I thought of broadway hands with a K were a possibility and AK . I started to to think he didnt have a heart when he got passive on me on the turn but Iguess it was because he had QQ LOL

Yeah, those are not really in his range as he raise in a 4-way flop. Never ever will you see a Kx no heart raising that spot. I would put the bottom of his range as AJ w/o a heart (though probably those mostly call, just being generous)

Those are the details that matter a ton when ranging someone, just putting him on hands you hope he can have so your bet/call works is a sure way to have a bad time.

 

[Casey55]

Yeah, those are not really in his range as he raise in a 4-way flop. Never ever will you see a Kx no heart raising that spot. I would put the bottom of his range as AJ w/o a heart (though probably those mostly call, just being generous)

Those are the details that matter a ton when ranging someone, just putting him on hands you hope he can have so your bet/call works is a sure way to have a bad time.

Hey thanks for the feedback much appreciated, So you don't think villain would C-bet a flop for half pot after 2/3 villains have checked so far without a a good heart? I didn't just put villain on hands I hoped he had I literally thought AK was a real possibility....I mean its kind of easy for you to say these things now that I've exposed his hand but I am interested what you mean can you elaborate. The more I look at the hand I see there was also a possibility he had Ah alot of the time if I had given him AK

 

[Casey55]

This is bad/dangerous thinking imo. the definition of results oriented. It would be a good bluff if he knew before making it he was going to tank with QQ and presumably fold mid-flushes down.

The only question to ask is will I get a fold ~40% of the time (what he needed with a 50c bet plus rake) from the average 2nl opponent? I think the answer is no as their worst hand is likely AJ without a heart, and if that avg villain calls with 9+ you don't get near enough to 40%

Villain checked turn and river...... I'm confused on the thought that he can't realistically fold 37% of his hands after hes checked turn and river, he made a c-bet and then it looked like he just gave up when he was called.

Villain pre-flop range : 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo+

Villain C-betting range =

99+,AKs,AJs-A9s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AdKh,AhKd,AhKs,AhKc,AsKh,AcKh,AdQh,AhQd,AhQs,AhQc,AsQh,AcQh

Which is

AKs,AJs,ATs,A9s,

all pocket pairs 99's and up

QJs has top pair, QTs is open ended,

KJs has top pair,

AKo,AQo with a heart. and T9s has trips, so I see what you mean by raising in a 4-way pot but thats not what he did, someone bet 0.02 which is basically a check, so he C-bet since he was pre-flop aggressor after 2 players checked too him and I think a range like this seems reasonable give or take. Maybe betting with a few less hands but I didnt just come up with a range I thought I beat I was thinking about what could realistically have that matched a check turn check river line.

 

[fast_frog]

Hey thanks for the feedback much appreciated, So you don't think villain would C-bet a flop for half pot after 2/3 villains have checked so far without a a good heart? I didn't just put villain on hands I hoped he had I literally thought AK was a real possibility....I mean its kind of easy for you to say these things now that I've exposed his hand but I am interested what you mean can you elaborate. The more I look at the hand I see there was also a possibility he had Ah alot of the time if I had given him AK

He didn't cbet, he raised a donk and a call. It's not the same thing imo. But yes people have much much tighter cbetting ranges in 4-way pots anyway, as they should - and raising a min donk/call is even tighter than that.

You seem to be ranging him as he was cbetting in a HU pot, you're going to get crushed in mw pots if you keep doing that.

The value of your hands decreases the more players are in, for example even AA is a mediocre hand on that board, as there is a very high chance it won't be good at showdown.

 

[fundiver199]

He didn't cbet, he raised a donk and a call. It's not the same thing imo. But yes people have much much tighter cbetting ranges in 4-way pots anyway, as they should - and raising a min donk/call is even tighter than that.

The donk bet was a meaningless min-bet of 5% of the pot, which is essentially the same as checking. Therefore I dont think, it changes the range of the preflop raiser at all. But I agree, that C-bet ranges in multiway pots are much tighter in general. The flop decision in this hand is pretty close, but with two backdoor draws its probably ok to call.

 

[fundiver199]

This is bad/dangerous thinking imo. the definition of results oriented. It would be a good bluff if he knew before making it he was going to tank with QQ and presumably fold mid-flushes down.

Point taken. But it does at least show, that some players will actually consider folding even hands stronger than those, we are targeting in this situation.

The only question to ask is will I get a fold ~40% of the time (what he needed with a 50c bet plus rake) from the average 2nl opponent? I think the answer is no as their worst hand is likely AJ without a heart, and if that avg villain calls with 9+ you don't get near enough to 40%

I think, this really depend on, who the Villain is. Most fish are level 1 thinkers, and a level 1 thinker will typically not fold two pair, even on a board like this, where there is a 1-liner to a straight. However most players are not fish. Even at 2NL there are several regulars for each fish. And in my opinion a regular will almost never call with two pair in this spot.

So is this a long term profitable bluff? I dont know, but it is at least close. And while it might be a bit advanced for 2NL to turn a made hand into a bluff, we should also ask ourselfes, why we play 2NL? And typically the answer should be for practice. So I do like the fact, that Hero is even thinking about bluffing here.

 

[Jdjakubisin]

If he gave you this free check, I take it. He likely has an over pair and not putting you on a nine so if I bluff with the two pair he's likely to sense he might still have it.