re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: Did I get ahead of myself on this river?
Sounds weird but I dont like calling here pre and prefer folding even though our hand is decent strength. I would be concerned about the risk of being dominated (as we were here) and more worried about getting squeezed from someone still to act.
I am fine with the check on the flop as we smashed the board, it is a rainbow flop and it is not connected. I think a lot of the time when we bet there we are getting folds unless our opponent has it or has a pocket pair of some sort. There are always sticky fish around but I think you are better in the long run by checking here.
The turn should be a bigger bet since if the villain is calling a 4 cent bet then they are also calling probably up to a 7 or 8 cent bet. The larger the bet we can make here and still get called will bode well for us (normally) on the river. If villain does fold here to 7 or 8 cent bet then they probably had nothing anyway and you weren't going to get anything on the river.
Villain leads here pot on the river. I think there are some random bluffs that do this however they are taking a decent risk to only win 21 cents. People usually dont bluff at small pots so that would make me discount bluffs a bit but I still say they are a possibility with this bet. Knowing the villain raised pre I would think they have a pair or two high cars most of the time. A pair like 7s or 9s I dont think would just come out a bet pot on the river so if villain is not bluffing they are strong here. There are some hands that beat you now like J9, 1010, bigger Qx, 22, and 77. If I was playing well I am not sure I would be raising the river here as I am not sure how many made hands we beat (we know bluffs wouldnt call) would call the raise. A hand like 108 would call but I dont see villain having that a lot and unless they are sticky I dont think they are calling with 10x here. Plus we can discount the big pairs since we would have heard from them at this point in the hand. I think I would just call here but I am sure in game I would probably raise it. Size of the raise is small but we would be trying to coax something we hope worse than us to call.
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