This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: Did I get ahead of myself on this river? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.02(BB)
MP ($1.89) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 25%
So I recently started to try my hand at some cash games now that my bankroll is getting a bit bigger and I'm wondering if I've played this hand correctly. Looking back at it, I'm thinking that I should have bet bigger on the turn as any worse hand that's going to call would just as likely call a bet of $0.06 or even $0.08. At the river I'm wondering if my raise makes sense here or if I should be just calling to catch bluffs/ any 10s he might have or even folding here. Thoughts?
I think it was well played maybe you are right and the turn bet should have been a little higher but I think that was the reason why the opponent bet on the river maybe if your turn bet had been higher he would have decided to make check / call on the river.
I write this part after seeing the result, my opinion is the same in everything I wrote previously, well played, bad luck is all and very rare that the villain did not take advantage of that hand in the River, conclusion you played the hand well, the villain should have sought more value from that hand
I would consider folding or 3bet bluffing this hand pre-flop, calling being my least favourable option. Villians post flop stats seem very passive even after 40 hands, maybe take note of this player and just call next time he pot leads the river unless your hand is nutted.
re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: Did I get ahead of myself on this river?
Sounds weird but I dont like calling here pre and prefer folding even though our hand is decent strength. I would be concerned about the risk of being dominated (as we were here) and more worried about getting squeezed from someone still to act.
I am fine with the check on the flop as we smashed the board, it is a rainbow flop and it is not connected. I think a lot of the time when we bet there we are getting folds unless our opponent has it or has a pocket pair of some sort. There are always sticky fish around but I think you are better in the long run by checking here.
The turn should be a bigger bet since if the villain is calling a 4 cent bet then they are also calling probably up to a 7 or 8 cent bet. The larger the bet we can make here and still get called will bode well for us (normally) on the river. If villain does fold here to 7 or 8 cent bet then they probably had nothing anyway and you weren't going to get anything on the river.
Villain leads here pot on the river. I think there are some random bluffs that do this however they are taking a decent risk to only win 21 cents. People usually dont bluff at small pots so that would make me discount bluffs a bit but I still say they are a possibility with this bet. Knowing the villain raised pre I would think they have a pair or two high cars most of the time. A pair like 7s or 9s I dont think would just come out a bet pot on the river so if villain is not bluffing they are strong here. There are some hands that beat you now like J9, 1010, bigger Qx, 22, and 77. If I was playing well I am not sure I would be raising the river here as I am not sure how many made hands we beat (we know bluffs wouldnt call) would call the raise. A hand like 108 would call but I dont see villain having that a lot and unless they are sticky I dont think they are calling with 10x here. Plus we can discount the big pairs since we would have heard from them at this point in the hand. I think I would just call here but I am sure in game I would probably raise it. Size of the raise is small but we would be trying to coax something we hope worse than us to call.
If it had folded around to you, then QJo is pretty much at the rock bottom of your opening range from this position. For that reason its an easy fold, when someone else are in the pot already. This is referred to as the gap concept. You need a stronger hand to call than raise, because you have no fold equity.
I can be on board with checking back some percentage of the time, especially against overly aggressive opponents, but I think, you should mainly be betting. There are some gutshots available, and as the main rule in poker, you simply want to be betting and building the pot, when you have a good hand.
You are probably going to be stabbing a ton of the time at a board like this, when you have air, and then you cant always be checking the few hands in your range, that smashed the board hard. You can pick a small size, just like you did on the turn. 1/3 pot with your entire range on paired boards is close to, what solvers suggest. It gives him a tough decision with A high, and you start building the pot against his pocket pairs.
As played you need to bet a little bit larger, as you already suggested to get more value and be able to get a larger river bet in.
When he donk lead for full pot, its a very polarizing line. He either have you beat, or he is bluffing. He is not taking this line with AT or even a hand like Q9. For that reason you have an easy call, but its never a raise.
A bit of a cooler obviously, but this is why, you should not play QJ preflop. You are so often going to have kicker issues, not only when you flop a pair but even when you flop trips, and this is going to be rather expensive.