$2 NLHE Full Ring: How often will villain be bluffing here?

[Arcelas]

Villain has shown down some optimistic hands. I've been kinda running over the table, raising a lot of pots preflop, then c-betting on flop.

BetOnline poker game #903063396: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/0.02) - 2011/08/16 21:06 Central Standard Time
Table 'Dumb and Dumber' 10-Max, Seat #3 is the button
Seat 9: seanteeks (2.46 in chips)
Seat 0: COLOR (0.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Arcelas (2.78 in chips) - Small Blind
Seat 6: MadMan07 (0.78 in chips)
Seat 2: Rusito (0.88 in chips)
Seat 1: BADDAWG23 (2.98 in chips)
Seat 5: SpceCoboy (2.00 in chips) - Big Blind
Seat 7: owensnana (0.98 in chips)
Seat 8: zionic405 (1.47 in chips)
Arcelas: posts small blind 0.01
SpceCoboy: posts big blind 0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Arcelas [10s 10h]
MadMan07: folds
owensnana: calls 0.02
zionic405: calls 0.02
seanteeks: calls 0.02
COLOR: calls 0.02
BADDAWG23: calls 0.02
Rusito: folds
Pot size: .13
Arcelas: raises 0.11 to 0.12
Pot size: .25
SpceCoboy: folds
owensnana: folds
zionic405: folds
seanteeks: calls 0.10
COLOR: folds
BADDAWG23: folds
Pot size: .35
*** FLOP *** [Ac 8d Qh]
Arcelas: checks
seanteeks: checks
Pot size: .35
*** TURN *** [Ac 8d Qh][6s]
Arcelas: checks
seanteeks: bets 0.12
Pot size: .47
Arcelas: calls 0.12
Pot size: .59
*** RIVER *** [Ac 8d Qh 6s][Qc]
Arcelas: checks
seanteeks: bets 0.34
Pot size: .93
Arcelas ???

 

[RVladimiro]

Not that often I'd say. Without reads, it's an easy fold to me.

 

[Arcelas]

Thank for reply. I dona have HUD stats, you know, VPIP and PFR, but I do know that he "value bet" bottom pair several times. and bluffed river when flush draws missed. basicly called flop and turn, then bet river.
the one thing against the idea that he's bluiffing, is he's seen me call river bets with modest holdings after draws failed to come in, and the holder of said draws bluffed the river. Now I know that players at this level often do not have a clue what is going on outside their hole cards, but I would think after a while they would realize bluffing me will not work very often. If the story they are trying to tell me doesn't make sense, I usually call.

 

[RVladimiro]

I see what you mean but I think that what is making you wonder is because you have pocket TT. Against A or Q your pocket TT are as worthy as 22, right? I think (but I'm a donk really) that the biggest problem here is that you didn't cbet the flop. You raised and isolated, a A or Q are easily in your perceived range. I wouldn't cbet here only if I knew that he is a calling station. If he calls that cbet, I'm done with the hand.

But has played, you are getting 3:1 on your money there so maybe it's a call, but what are you beating? Maybe you can call and get information but the whole thing (to me) is that it's not that different from set mining after that flop.

 

[acky100]

I think its a call, the Q pairing makes me happier to call as im not really worried about an A, and he can be bluffing as he sounds loose and somewhat aggressive. I'd just call here worst that happens is we learn how much our opponent bets with bluffs or value hands or stuff that he thinks are marginal.

I like the flop check myself, what would c-betting on AQx dry flop achieve? Board isn't all that drawy so we're only gonna be getting called by better and its unlikely we're gonna be comfortable double barrelling if he were to call with a smaller PP or something, and then he can easily bluff us off the hand if we check when he calls. I dont mind how the whole hand is played really, we could bet the turn but with two overcards there its still gonna be hard to get called by worse i think, if he checked the turn i think i would bet a small amount on the river for sure though.

 

[Arcelas]

I think its a call, the Q pairing makes me happier to call as im not really worried about an A, and he can be bluffing as he sounds loose and somewhat aggressive. I'd just call here worst that happens is we learn how much our opponent bets with bluffs or value hands or stuff that he thinks are marginal.

I like the flop check myself, what would c-betting on AQx dry flop achieve? Board isn't all that drawy so we're only gonna be getting called by better and its unlikely we're gonna be comfortable double barrelling if he were to call with a smaller PP or something, and then he can easily bluff us off the hand if we check when he calls. I dont mind how the whole hand is played really, we could bet the turn but with two overcards there its still gonna be hard to get called by worse i think, if he checked the turn i think i would bet a small amount on the river for sure though.

Thank you for the advice and encouragement, acky100. I agree the turn bet was a little fishy. Although I do wish it really was a topless Angelina Jolie who was giving me advice. boy would I listen to her every word...

 

[Four Dogs]

Even if he's a laggy bluffy sort I don't think there's much hope that he's doing so here or rather, the probability is low. He didn't raise prelop and the board is full of scary cards that would make one think twice about bluffing at all let alone a 3 barreler and here's really no point in calling the river as all you beat IS a bluff. No way he takes this line with an 8 or a 6. My best guess would be that he has Qx,

Why the out of position preflop raise? How many of the limpers did you expect to fold at this limit? TTT is good enough to call in this situation but OP to 5 limpers it's not much better than dueces. Just call.

 

[baudib1]

calling pre is just terrible.

 

[jbbb]

calling pre is just terrible.

Yeah I thought he called pre too, but the HH is weird:

Rusito: folds
Pot size: .13
Arcelas: raises 0.11 to 0.12

^^Thats all PF

 

[jbbb]

Oh and if you call the turn because you think you're ahead the Q on the river doesn't change anything so you should still be calling if you think you were ahead on the turn.

 

[bgomez89]

can you convert your hand so my eyes don't bleed?

 

[Arcelas]

BetOnline's HH cannot be converted, I have already tried. If there is something I can do manually to make them more readable, please tell me. I shan't care to be the cause of eye bleeds.

I thought putting in the pot sizes after each action would be helpful, but they just cause too much confusion?

BTW, I did call the river, he showed J9o for a busted gutshot. much as he had been doing the rest of the game.

 

[Four Dogs]

calling pre is just terrible.

What would you recommend, folding with 14:1 direct odds? Besides, he didn't call preflop, he raised 6x. Calling would have made more sense as he was getting great odds to set mine and TT is a high enough pair that on very rare occasions it actually holds up.

Sorry about the typos in my earlier post. I was at my son's football practice and typing on my Blackberry.

 

[jbbb]

What would you recommend, folding with 14:1 direct odds? Besides, he didn't call preflop, he raised 6x. Calling would have made more sense as he was getting great odds to set mine and TT is a high enough pair that on very rare occasions it actually holds up.

Sorry about the typos in my earlier post. I was at my son's football practice and typing on my Blackberry.

Nah baudib1 wanted a raise pre, not a fold or call.
And i'd prefer a raise than a call. It gives you inititative when you miss and lets you take it down after the flop. Also when you flop the overpair ~40% of the time or a set 11% of the time you can c-bet with confidence and if you get called the pot will be bigger with the overpair (which is pretty much nuts in 2NL)

 

[bgomez89]

does pt3 or hem support betonline?

 

[baudib1]

i think this is mostly fine except i would probably raise bigger pre like 20c and idk, flip a coin on river.

 

[Arcelas]

does pt3 or hem support betonline?

No, they don't, BO is too new. It's too bad too, 'cause at the very least I would like to know how many hands I've played, and my bb/100h rate, and well all the other cool things that pt3 or hem can provide. It's one of the main reasons I'm thinking of playing somewhere else.