This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: How do I get out of this hand without going broke? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hero dealt AsAh CU 1,90$
UTG1-3 fold, MP+1 call, MP2-3 fold, Hero raised to 0,10$, BU fold, SB fold, BB call, MP+1 call
F: 448r ($0,31)
I think it's fine to go broke here. Yes, there are a lot of combos of 4x but really none of them should be defending out of position vs a 5 BB pre flop raise over one limp. Even if we try to create a bad calling range what does it look like (1 combo of A4s, 1 combo of K4s , 1 combo of 54s and one combo of 43s)? Here are my thoughts by street.
I like the large raise to put pressure on the capped limp range and prevent it from going super multi way post flop. Not much to say here.
I assume these Vs are calling too much per typical 2NL players and I agree we have to bet here but 2/3 pot is too large in my opinion on a paired board. If we have the 4 (which we shouldn't) we wont want to fold everyone out with such a large bet. When we don't have the 4 we also don't expect them to have much 4x so we want them to continue with a wider range and bet smaller. If they DO have the 4 they might let us know. As played, when they DO continue against a large sizing it narrows their range to stronger hands and we may need to proceed with a bit of caution.
Had we bet small I would double barrel here but since we bet large and got called I don't mind the check.
It's looks curious when V leads for full pot here but given the strength of our hand and the probability that V may overcall with a full house I think we have to jam here for value. At this level I'd expect to get called by Tx, maybe even some 99 or 8x, and any TT+ that didn't 3 bet pre. Sometimes they will make bad calls pre and run like God. We still have to go for fat value when we are this strong given the run out as played.
Pre: I raised more after the limp on that limit. 6X or 7X.
Flop: you can put more, because if he call 0.2 he will call pot
Turn: i bet again, he will play if he wants to hit a magical card, for exemple if he has 67, 56 or even a 8, or if he had a 10.
River: when he donk/leads it's not necessary a good news, you can only call because he can find a bet/fold, can have a 4, 88.
If you wanted to get the pot small case he had a 4, you changed your plan.
But you can't say that you made a big mistake, loose against quads is rare. I think you will see hands like 10X because at this level they can play like this.
I also think, your C-bet is to large. The thing about a paired board like this is, very few hands connect with it, and some of those, that did, now beat you. Your hand also dont need any protection. Its a way ahead way behind spot. Either you have 2 outs against someone, who flopped trips or a boat, or they are drawing very thin against you. A gutshot has 4 outs. 8X has 2 outs, since you already have two pair. All the hands, that missed, need some kind of runner-runner to crack your aces. I can even see an argument for checking here as a trap to have some very strong hands in your check-back range. Allow someone to bluff the turn or catch up by turning top pair or some kind of draw. Betting is also ok, but I would want to go small here like 1/3 pot.
I dont quite understand the rationale of betting very big on the flop and then checking turn. Even with the big flop bet, I would still put out a turn bet trying to get called by 8X, the rare TX and pocket pairs. I would still go on the smaller side like half pot though.
On any other card than a 4 or A, I would just call, when he bets full pot. However when another 4 hits the board, its less likely, he has one, because now there is only one left. On the other hand all his TX, 8X and pocket pairs improved to a full house, and at 2NL its certainly likely, he overvalue that kind of hand, because he fail to understand the relative strengt of it. So on this particular card I would also move all in for value.
This time he had the goods, and you ended up value owning yourself. But this is just part of poker. Its not something, we can or should even try to avoid. The goal when betting for value on the river is to be good more than 50% of the time when called, and in this situation I think, you easily are.
It is very difficult not to go broke here. I think you were confused by your opponent's check on the turn. There are people who will call with any cards to see the flop. Because they can afford it and the size of your raise is not important to them. You make a big bet on such a flop, but if he makes a call, then you do not need to exclude such hands as a pocket pair, A8 or A4 (K4 in his case). He makes a big raise on the river. We need to remember the actions on the flop and decide whether he is bluffing now or hit the flop. You want him to have a full house. But if he often watches the flop with any hands, then he can have 4.
So there are some things to recognize here- one is a way to exploit V's to the max, another is more 'balanced' play.
Flop cbet should be small and checking AA on this flop is alright. But, given this is 2nl and Vs are clearly very bad, cbet is fine.
Turn- Barrel is fine here. If V has a pocket pair they aren't going anywhere.
River- As played, the donk lead could mean a lot. This is never a bluff, however. Once in a while he has a 4, but he could have a T and read the "full house" on his screen and flip out.
you do lose this some of the time, and you do block AT which would be a loose but possible float from V. V could have 88 or 4x, though you block A4 which should be the most common.
If you knew V was a passive fish, I wouldn't hate a flat call here. Raising works at 2nl bc he will call with any and all "full houses." You'd have a much clearer picture of things (and have better value long term) if you bet turn.