$2 NLHE Full Ring: Hero folds AA on the flop

[Casey55]

Not my hand, from another forum they had no info about villain but I wanted to get thoughts about c-betting the flop.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 98.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 116.5 BB
SB: 76 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
MP: 201 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A

A

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) T

9

8

CO checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO raises to 31 BB, fold
Hero has a tiny range advantage on this flop, this should lead us to bet large and infrequently something like 3/4 pot or pot?When we have a significant range advantage we want to bet often and small and when we have a tiny advantage or no advantage we want to bet large and infrequently, as the board becomes more draw heavy we typically want to bet a little bit larger as-well because there is value from extracting value from the draws. With the range advantages in mind the other thing we need to take into account is how strong our hand is on the flop, and I was thinking AA is on the cusp at the point between premium and marginal because of the board, so we should be betting large or checking?


Thoughts?

 

[fundiver199]

This is one of the worst possible flops for AA, because so much of Villains range either got there or flopped some huge draw. So I prefer to check back and hope for some complete brick like 3c on the turn.

 

[Sidetracked]

Trying to extract value on that flop is tricky and somewhat optimistic. His c/r could easily have been a draw/combo-draw. I do prefer checking that flop in position.

 

[Casey55]

Trying to extract value on that flop is tricky and somewhat optimistic. His c/r could easily have been a draw/combo-draw. I do prefer checking that flop in position.

But if we bet 70%-100% pot would we have been check -raised? If we bet that large and we are raised we can probably safely fold ? And if he calls he could be on draw or have a nutted hand but we will get closer river showdown and if turn bricks he might slow down aggression with draws ? Not sure just interesting spot, we still have slight range advantage idk if it’s too optimistic but that’s just my thoughts

 

[Sidetracked]

I think that as the pf 3 bettor, that flop hits his range harder than yours.

 

[Casey55]

I think that as the pf 3 bettor, that flop hits his range harder than yours.

I ran the ranges in flop-zilla , BU has about 53% equity, when we bet larger I figure it could not let him x/r us with all of his draws and instead call and see a turn, where we still have the intiative, if the turn is a brick we are in decent shape I figure, by charging him on the flop to see a card that didn't help much and he has 1 possible card left too see. I'm not arguing it hits the callers range better, I think we are all agreeing to that, I am trying to speculate if betting large is a big mistake or not.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, betting large makes sure, that the few hands, we are way ahead of, always fold. Just check back and keep the pot small.

 

[0815am]

I think, betting large makes sure, that the few hands, we are way ahead of, always fold. Just check back and keep the pot small.

I would agree.

On another thought. Also your button 3b range does connect better with the board then eg SB/BB.
Hence he should be less likely to XR too light.

Ultimately it is 2NL. Our value comes from valuebetting. This is one of the worst flops so I would potcontrol.

 

[Evan Jarvis]

Not my hand, from another forum they had no info about villain but I wanted to get thoughts about c-betting the flop.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 98.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 116.5 BB
SB: 76 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
MP: 201 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A

A

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) T

9

8

CO checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO raises to 31 BB, fold
Hero has a tiny range advantage on this flop, this should lead us to bet large and infrequently something like 3/4 pot or pot?When we have a significant range advantage we want to bet often and small and when we have a tiny advantage or no advantage we want to bet large and infrequently, as the board becomes more draw heavy we typically want to bet a little bit larger as-well because there is value from extracting value from the draws. With the range advantages in mind the other thing we need to take into account is how strong our hand is on the flop, and I was thinking AA is on the cusp at the point between premium and marginal because of the board, so we should be betting large or checking?


Thoughts?

Folding here is fine. You may also consider checking back on a board this messy.

That being said QQ and KK should be x/c a bet here, and the best way to get value from that portion of the range is indeed to bet. And when he x/r ... well... if he has JJ, good for him, he pushed you off some equity, vs everything else you are so dead and bet/folding is thus a great choice!

 

[Edgerik]

I think the fold was the right thing, with that flop there is not much to look for with AA.

 

[Aballinamion]

Not my hand, from another forum they had no info about villain but I wanted to get thoughts about c-betting the flop.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 98.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 116.5 BB
SB: 76 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
MP: 201 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A

A

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) T

9

8

CO checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO raises to 31 BB, fold
Hero has a tiny range advantage on this flop, this should lead us to bet large and infrequently something like 3/4 pot or pot?When we have a significant range advantage we want to bet often and small and when we have a tiny advantage or no advantage we want to bet large and infrequently, as the board becomes more draw heavy we typically want to bet a little bit larger as-well because there is value from extracting value from the draws. With the range advantages in mind the other thing we need to take into account is how strong our hand is on the flop, and I was thinking AA is on the cusp at the point between premium and marginal because of the board, so we should be betting large or checking?


Thoughts?

Hey there Casey55, thanks for posting the hand of your friend! Tell him/her to participate on CardsChat it is very good.

The Preflop unseen problem:

Although we are almost sure that the CO player is a recreational one (because it has a broken stack), hero just gives away very important information preflop by making a slightly higher preflop raise than usual: Hero 3-bets 3.3x in position, and this is enough information for a very attentive player, that hero is slightly polarizing its preflop range, usually with the top of the range.
For this case, we don't actually believe that CO would realize such a thing, but which hands CO could be calling here? AK, AQ, AJ, AT, 66+, or even lower pocket pairs and a bunch of nonsense off-suited broadways and/or suited connectors.
If I was in the CO and you 3-bets 3.3x IP, I would know that you are on the top of your range and check-raise many flops with the nuts or a very strong value hand and with a lot of bluffs trying to put as much pressure as I can upon AA, KK, QQ, because JJ isn't folding here ever.

The flop bigger problem:

Hero goes for 1/2 pot and CO check-raises for the size of the pot. Yeah, it sucks, Villain can have 98, T9, T8, TT, 99, 88, Jx, Qx, 7x, pheew, and even the bluffs have a lot of equity. Versus a recreational we really need some information (HUD) before taking any decision.
Given that this is a 3-bet pot, and the flop is way too connected, I would never go here for 1/2 pot under the risk of getting check-raised and put myself into a "help me God" spot.
1/3 pot would do the work just fine, since Villain is never folding anything here, and we protect our value range against this weird check-raises flop.
A very balanced Tight will have something like 5% til 10% check-raise flop at maximum, with all of its bluffs and values. Since that players are very non-sense at the micros, a check-raise could be anything.
I guess it doesn't make much sense calling here, because when players blow the pot like this they are going all-in on any turn, no matter what. Villain will have here almost always some Jx, or JJ, some Qx, or QQ, even Kx with a diamond or KK. Needless to say that TT, 99 and 88 are doing the same.
CO is trying to protect its rank too much by going with a fair pot check-raise so, like many other spots, "this is very close between jamming and folding, since we cannot call here".
Well, this is one of the worst flops ever for AA, without any flush blocker and without information of the player I would be mucking 80% and jamming 20% of times.
Versus a known Aggro Donkey I would be jamming 70% of times and folding the rest.
Versus a Tight Passive I would fold 100% of times.
Versus a Tight Aggressive this would never be happening because a TAG would be raising here with semi-bluffs and the "nuts", so I can safely go by calling (TAG will not polarize like this versus another TAG), and making my life on the turn or if TAG really polarizes I am jamming 50% of times and folding 50% of times.
This is a decision that will rely upon who we are playing with, much more than ranges versus ranges.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[gustav197poker]

I agree with your reasoning. At this time a large size bet has a good chance of generating significant fold equity given the positions involved. Your size was probably perceived as weak by the villain. By this fact, any draw could compensate for this disadvantage of being OOP, with a standard attack that would represent a better connection with this board. If you put the villain in a formed line, for example straight or 2 pairs, maybe you made the best decision. Otherwise, this could be an exploitation strategy carried out by the CO, for which to call once more, can serve to keep all its semi-bluffs and bluffs in his range. From the SPR point of view, the most advisable is the IP check on this coordinated flop towards the medium-low scales. And then evaluate how the texture continues. Your hand has pure bluff range in an IP attack sequence and of bluff catcher as a defensive line post flop.
Greetings.