$2 NLHE Full Ring: Dry board and a raise on river Call or Fold...

[portuga]

Villain's bet River is 43%(3/7) not a good sample, what would you do on the River guys, Call or Fold?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players

BTN: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 12.70, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, hands: 63)
SB: 112.5 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 10.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
UTG: 105.5 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
Hero (UTG+1): 170 BB
MP: 179.5 BB (VPIP: 13.90, PFR: 7.48, 3Bet Preflop: 2.68, Hands: 299)
MP+1: 197.5 BB (VPIP: 16.38, PFR: 9.57, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 119)
MP+2: 166 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 18.57, PFR: 15.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 8:club: 8:diamond: 3:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:
Hero bets 7.5 BB, MP raises to 22 BB, fold

MP wins 28.5 BB

 

[dunkyhory]

I would bet the flop larger maybe 50% pot you can still get called by any pp and Ace high even some broadways with back door draws.The turn I think you should be betting again id just be betting for 3 streets of value.As played id call the river I think villain can view some Kx as the best hand here after the turn check but i'm not in love with the call.

 

[tiltmonster12]

he's saying he has an 8. fold.
should have check/called river to make it easier to see showdown.

 

[Hujiko]

MP: 179.5 BB (VPIP: 13.90, PFR: 7.48, 3Bet Preflop: 2.68, Hands: 299).
Purely based on the stats I would categorize MP as a tight passive player.

MP calls preflop given his stats 14% VIP and if hes positional aware the 14% will be even less as you raised from UTG+1. So hes continue range looks something like AJ+,55+, KQ, KJs, JTs (~10%) of which he 3 bets something like without AK, QQ+ (2.6%) but with positional awareness added that would even be tighter as a MP against an UTG+1 (e.g. only AA and KK and AKs).

Now he calls your cBet on the dry flop into two people which does not say to much about his continuing range.

What can he have on the river?
A8s not likely given his preflop VIP stats
87s or 89s not likely given his preflop VIP stats
KK is a possibility but would most likely be 3 betted preflop (so give that 1 combo)
88 (1 combo)
66 (3 combos)
AKo possible but could be 3 betted preflop (given the turn check-check this is a possibility)
AKs possible but not likely as would prob be 3 betted preflop
KQs is possible but not as likely to be overvalued as AK
XX any hand that continues on the flop can be used as a bluff here

As I only count 5 combos that beat AA and there are hands that could be bluffed or overvalued as hero checked turn when a K came off, I would make the call.