$2 NLHE Full Ring: Do I really have to fold here? Ugh

[Mdf1992]

Hi guys,

Am I really supposed to fold here? Ugh. I mean I just did not think he even really had a flush there. I kind of put him on AK AQ KQ etc etc these type of hands or maybe like JJ QQ by the time he bet. Would you have put him on a flush here? Thanks in advance for any input!


Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 188 BB
UTG: 100 BB
UTG+1: 105.5 BB
MP: 159 BB
Hero (CO): 72.5 BB
BTN: 80.5 BB
SB: 104.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:club: K:heart:

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade: J:spade: 3:club:
MP checks, Hero bets 12 BB, MP calls 12 BB

Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
MP bets 139.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 53 BB and is all-in

MP shows J:diamond: 8:diamond: (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights)
(Pre 20%, Flop 20%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows K:club: K:heart: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 80%, Turn 89%)
MP wins 139.5 BB

 

[fifille07]

It really depends on your read... No bad answers in my opinion.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Like the 3-bet and the relatively small sizing as well, since you did not start with a full stack.

Flop
C-bet is fine, but in a 3-bet pot you dont always need to go so big. Unless you jam the turn, you are going to need to size down, and its often better to bet roughly the same size on each street or even size up on the turn.

Turn
Flush comes in and with all the high flush cards available for him to have other than Js, this is not exactly great. You still beat QQ, AJ, QT, T8 though, so I still like a bet for value. You cant blast it, but maybe bet something like 15BB and probably fold, if he check-jam it in your face.

River
This action is pretty gross, and the first thing, you need to ask yourself, is does he ever do this for value with a hand worse than yours like QQ or AJ? And I think, the answer is no, unless he is some crazy maniac. Those hands either check or go for a small bet. So his range is polarized between hands, that you lose to, and then maybe some bluffs.

Is this a good situation to bluff catch then? First looking at your hand you dont really have any great blockers. It would be good to have Ks, because that would block some of the flush combos, which are his most obvious value jam. It would also be better to have a J, because then he is less likely to have hands like JJ or J9. So if you are going to select some of your one pair hands to fold, this is actually a good candidate to go in the muck.

The next thing is, what is he bluffing with? And I cant really come up with any good answers. Flush got there on the turn. QT got there on the river. T8 made a pair. There are no busted draws really, and typically these are the hands, people turn into bluffs. Here your flop sizing also matter, because when you bet 75% pot, he need to have something pretty good to continue. He is probably not floating you out of position with a hand like AQ for just two overs. Which mean he also cant have it on the river and use it to bluff you.

Finally you are obviously not getting a good price. You need to be good almost 40% of the time, so he need to be bluffing fairly often for this to be a profitable call. So all in all if you do a bit of hand reading here, and if you dont have any particular history with this player, I think, you can let this hand go facing an overbet jam. Its different, if he used a smaller sizing, because then he could absolutely be betting a worse hand than yours for value.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Your stack size makes this awkward imo. You're sightly above a typical mid stack.

Regardless, the SPR on the flop is about 4. I've studied and played mid stack a bit, and with an SPR of 4 and an overpair you should already know on this flop that you're getting it all in somehow.

Personally on a board with any draws I prefer to get it all in on the turn, especially against bad players who will chase draws with bad odds. But again, with a bit more than a pot sized bet there, that could be a bit forceful here.

With that in mind I definitely bet the turn, and dont hate jamming it in sometimes but that really depends at lot on your opponent and your own table image. As an aggressive player with between 40 and 70bb you can look pretty wild to others and they tend to see your aggressive pot sized turn bets as bluffy sometimes.

Note that I think playing a 100bb stack is better, but understanding short and mid stack strategy can be very helpful as effective stack size is often less than 100bb at micros and you need to know when to just put those short and mid stacks all in with SPRs that are at the lower end.

Overall I'd suggest you play fully stacked though, and the analysis from Fundiver is really good as usual, so take heed of his comments.

 

[Vallet]

High pocket pairs rarely win big pots, unfortunately. If the board does not strengthen your cards, then you either win small pots, or the opponent gets their outs. I think you were in a hurry to make a call on the river. All the information was at your fingertips. You make a big bet on the flop and lose control of the pot, because then your bets must be even bigger. If the villain calls, it means that he has outs on the draw or he hit the board. Your check on the turn gives the opponent the information that you do not have a flush. So when he caught his incredible second pair, he immediately pushed everything. Plan your bets in advance and everything will be fine.

 

[Mdf1992]

Preflop
Like the 3-bet and the relatively small sizing as well, since you did not start with a full stack.

Flop
C-bet is fine, but in a 3-bet pot you dont always need to go so big. Unless you jam the turn, you are going to need to size down, and its often better to bet roughly the same size on each street or even size up on the turn.

Turn
Flush comes in and with all the high flush cards available for him to have other than Js, this is not exactly great. You still beat QQ, AJ, QT, T8 though, so I still like a bet for value. You cant blast it, but maybe bet something like 15BB and probably fold, if he check-jam it in your face.

River
This action is pretty gross, and the first thing, you need to ask yourself, is does he ever do this for value with a hand worse than yours like QQ or AJ? And I think, the answer is no, unless he is some crazy maniac. Those hands either check or go for a small bet. So his range is polarized between hands, that you lose to, and then maybe some bluffs.

Is this a good situation to bluff catch then? First looking at your hand you dont really have any great blockers. It would be good to have Ks, because that would block some of the flush combos, which are his most obvious value jam. It would also be better to have a J, because then he is less likely to have hands like JJ or J9. So if you are going to select some of your one pair hands to fold, this is actually a good candidate to go in the muck.

The next thing is, what is he bluffing with? And I cant really come up with any good answers. Flush got there on the turn. QT got there on the river. T8 made a pair. There are no busted draws really, and typically these are the hands, people turn into bluffs. Here your flop sizing also matter, because when you bet 75% pot, he need to have something pretty good to continue. He is probably not floating you out of position with a hand like AQ for just two overs. Which mean he also cant have it on the river and use it to bluff you.

Finally you are obviously not getting a good price. You need to be good almost 40% of the time, so he need to be bluffing fairly often for this to be a profitable call. So all in all if you do a bit of hand reading here, and if you dont have any particular history with this player, I think, you can let this hand go facing an overbet jam. Its different, if he used a smaller sizing, because then he could absolutely be betting a worse hand than yours for value.

Thanks very much fundiver! So very helpful to hear your thought process on this. I didn't and don't much at all yet think about blockers and stuff so that was really helpful to hear you mention and so that I can start to think about that.

 

[Mdf1992]

Your stack size makes this awkward imo. You're sightly above a typical mid stack.

Regardless, the SPR on the flop is about 4. I've studied and played mid stack a bit, and with an SPR of 4 and an overpair you should already know on this flop that you're getting it all in somehow.

Personally on a board with any draws I prefer to get it all in on the turn, especially against bad players who will chase draws with bad odds. But again, with a bit more than a pot sized bet there, that could be a bit forceful here.

With that in mind I definitely bet the turn, and dont hate jamming it in sometimes but that really depends at lot on your opponent and your own table image. As an aggressive player with between 40 and 70bb you can look pretty wild to others and they tend to see your aggressive pot sized turn bets as bluffy sometimes.

Note that I think playing a 100bb stack is better, but understanding short and mid stack strategy can be very helpful as effective stack size is often less than 100bb at micros and you need to know when to just put those short and mid stacks all in with SPRs that are at the lower end.

Overall I'd suggest you play fully stacked though, and the analysis from Fundiver is really good as usual, so take heed of his comments.

Very interesting. I never knew exactly why people would have that auto-refill back to 100bb that i see so often. I never liked the idea of that because I like to know where I am on the night and to go down and force myself to play proper and try to build back up. But I guess I might try to play at the full stack..

This is very insightful what you mentioned about having a smaller stack and how a big bet/going all in looks kind of bluffy or etc because I'm short stacked and down. Thanks for this insight. I didn't even really realize there was completely different strategy for short or midstack.

 

[Mdf1992]

High pocket pairs rarely win big pots, unfortunately. If the board does not strengthen your cards, then you either win small pots, or the opponent gets their outs. I think you were in a hurry to make a call on the river. All the information was at your fingertips. You make a big bet on the flop and lose control of the pot, because then your bets must be even bigger. If the villain calls, it means that he has outs on the draw or he hit the board. Your check on the turn gives the opponent the information that you do not have a flush. So when he caught his incredible second pair, he immediately pushed everything. Plan your bets in advance and everything will be fine.

Thanks very much for this. I do need to start planning in advance.

 

[Vallet]

Thanks very much for this. I do need to start planning in advance.

When a flush draw is on the flop, you must know in advance what you will do when it closes on the board. I would bet 1/3 of the pot on the flop and 1/3 or 1/2 of the pot on the turn. If the opponent goes to the river with a pair of jacks, then he will be afraid of a flush on the board. So the river could end up with a check-check. But you wouldn't have won this hand anyway, because luck is on his side. However, planning your bets always helps you control the pot and increase your hand strength from one street to the next.