$2 NLHE Full Ring: Bluff catch on the river

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Casey55

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Villain was splashy, playing many hands, seen his whole cards a few times calling frequently from OOP with suited Junk. Seen evidence of him not liking to folding top pair before, showing up with wacky hands and playing fishy. I thought I developed a tell because he kept betting pot on the river when there seemed to be broken draws and I would see him bet very small on the river with what I interpreted as his likely value hands. In this hand should we be value betting the turn? I believe we can get called by weaker PP, club draws and maybe some of the gut-shots? I decided not too because I figured at least one villain could have called the flop with a 9 or K and both are now ahead of me.On the river splashy villain bets pot and I thought his range was broken draws since I had come to a conclusion he is likely betting pot with his bluffs. Thoughts?


pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.32 (116 bb)
MP: $2.96 (148 bb)
CO: $2.06 (103 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.19 (110 bb)
SB: $2.17 (109 bb)
BB: $1.46 (73 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with J J
UTG calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.11, 2 players fold, UTG calls $0.09, MP calls $0.09

Flop: ($0.36) K 9 4 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.16, UTG calls $0.16, MP calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.84) 9 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.84) 2 (3 players)
UTG bets $0.81, MP folds, Hero calls $0.81
 
H

Hermus

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Commenting on tells is very hard obviously. If you're confident villain is bluffing it's an easy call. Bet-sizing tells, or online tells in general, are very inconsistent so proceed with caution.

As for your questions. With two players still left to act I agree that it's likely that your JJ is no good. With the limp/call they both have all the kings, all the nines, and double clubs that they don't necessarily have to bet since you have the betting lead.

The turn checking through doesn't exclude any of villains value hands. It's not uncommon to see this line with a monster hand in NL2, and I'm not sure he's betting all his missed draws. Based on the stakes and the player type I think villain has you beat more often than the 33% you need to make a profit.
 
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Casey55

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Commenting on tells is very hard obviously. If you're confident villain is bluffing it's an easy call. Bet-sizing tells, or online tells in general, are very inconsistent so proceed with caution.

As for your questions. With two players still left to act I agree that it's likely that your JJ is no good. With the limp/call they both have all the kings, all the nines, and double clubs that they don't necessarily have to bet since you have the betting lead.

The turn checking through doesn't exclude any of villains value hands. It's not uncommon to see this line with a monster hand in NL2, and I'm not sure he's betting all his missed draws. Based on the stakes and the player type I think villain has you beat more often than the 33% you need to make a profit.



I am using Equilab and trying to figure this out. you can tell me where you think my ranges are wrong but this is what I am thinking now,

Main Villain (UTG) limp/calls pre

OTF villain check/calls roughly half pot bet I don't feel like I can discount really any of his range here because he checked to the pre-flop aggressor, sure some players might check/raise with their best made hands and some bluffs but he flat called.

On the turn with another 9, I would think that villain would lead now ? with hands like KQ,KJ,KT, and his Kx, maybe he slow plays his 9x some of the time and he could check his draws aswell.

OTR I have discounted most of villain's Kx since I think he would probrably bet those on the turn multi-way ( et me know if you disagree) On the river I give his range a bunch of Ax broken flushdraws and many 9x. here's a photo of the river range I give him because his river bet is so polarized.
 

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H

Hermus

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Since you have position and the betting lead, I think the assumption that villain is betting his top pair or better combo's on the turn is slightly wrong. I actually would include all those hands in his river range.

I also don't think he's betting his missed flush draws at a 100% frequency, but if you have a hard read on him I'm not going to fault you for it.

If he's really fishy I think he has some offsuit combo's containing a 9 that he can bet for value that you should include.

Let me know if you agree. I might be off with some of my assumptions on this player. Ultimately, building your opponents range is always a little bit of educated guessing.
 
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Casey55

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Since you have position and the betting lead, I think the assumption that villain is betting his top pair or better combo's on the turn is slightly wrong. I actually would include all those hands in his river range.

I also don't think he's betting his missed flush draws at a 100% frequency, but if you have a hard read on him I'm not going to fault you for it.

If he's really fishy I think he has some offsuit combo's containing a 9 that he can bet for value that you should include.

Let me know if you agree. I might be off with some of my assumptions on this player. Ultimately, building your opponents range is always a little bit of educated guessing.

Yes I agree with your statements, I am thankful for your replies as you seem well-versed in ranges and this is something I am trying hard to get better at. After you mention that Villain could have checked/ slow played some 9x and strong Kx from OOP hoping players behind him put money in the pot I think this is logical and makes a lot of sense. This also makes sense why he would bet pot on the river almost seems in a way it was villain trying to make up for lost value on the turn being checked through correct?
 
John A

John A

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Turn X multiway is fine. And as played, even considering your read, river is a fold since he's betting into 2 people. If it was HU's, then it would be much closer and likely a call considering your read.
 
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