$2 NLHE Full Ring: AQ 3-bet pot, villain is donk-barreling. Whats his range here? Do we let go of TPTK?

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Casey55

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$2 NLHE Full Ring: AQ 3-bet pot, villain is donk-barreling. Whats his range here? Do we let go of TPTK?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/22/3

Villain stats 27/22/3 over only 84 hands.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.25 (113 bb)
UTG+1: $1.31 (66 bb)
MP: $1.70 (85 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): $1.72 (86 bb)
CO: $1.86 (93 bb)
BU: $5.58 (279 bb)
SB: $2.07 (104 bb)
BB: $1.55 (78 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP+1 with A Q
2 players fold, MP raises to $0.06, Hero 3-bets to $0.18, 4 players fold, MP calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.39) Q T 4 (2 players)
MP bets $0.19, Hero calls $0.19

Turn: ($0.77) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $0.37, Hero calls $0.37

River: ($1.51) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $0.96 (all-in), Hero...?

Wasn't quite sure what to think when villain donk bets at me on the flop I was thinking TT,
QK, maybe JJ? It felt like a value hand should I have folded on turn here? what do you think about the hand? I felt like I had to at least call the flop 1 time with TPTK or what am I even defending with right?I mean I guess he can have QQ but would you expect those to 4-bet some of the time aswell? the river doesnt help any AJ,AK type hands Im beating QK,QJ,JJ,any draws on the river missed so only thing that beats me is AA,KK,QQ,TT,44, and QT?
 
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fundiver199

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I am calling down here. You are playing for less than 100BB in a 3-bet pot against someone, who is very loose and aggressive for full ring, and all the draws missed. He can have diamonds, KJ, J9, or he could even have KQ, which he is overplaying "for value". The only realistic hands, he can have, which you lose to, are QT, TT and 44. So against someone like this, he has to show it to me.
 
moulan7

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Villain is a LAG depending on his stats.

I like your preflop 3bet against this villain. I sometimes prefer flat call here against tight opponents.
Now on flop goes out of the standard lines and lead bets.
Since he's a LAG I bet he can do that with any kind of hand that connects to the board.
I like that you are just calling the flop and turn.
On river I think that you have to call (I call), every draw missed and I feel that we win way more combinations that his range includes than we lose.
I don't know if Q10s might be a possible holding, is he calling 3bets oop with anything?
The ones that beat us are 1010 and 44. Call.

Edit: Can't believe that this type of opponent doesn't 4bet AA, KK, QQ pre.
 
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EarnDAStack

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I agree with fundivers analysis. Also, if you’re folding top pair top kicker to a 66% pot jam on the river after calling a 50% pot flop and turn bet I think you’re going to be significantly overfolding. Especially given the board texture. There isn’t a lot of reason for villain to lead into you as you should be C Betting here fairly often on this flop so villain’s play is very agro fish tag worthy imo
 
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fundiver199

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In general I do not recommend to get into a lot of hero calling for stacks at 2NL, because a lot of players basically never bluff, when the pot gets big. But for all the reasons outlined by myself and others, this is the one spot, where I will make an exception.

I agree with EarnDAStack, that this donk bet is very aggressive. If he flopped a set, this would be the perfect spot to check to the preflop 3-better and let him fire the standard C-bet. AA, KK, AK, AQ, KQ, AdXd is always C-betting here. So while I will not completely remove value from his range, this donk bet does look more like a bluff.

Finally your hand had excellent removal. You blocked none of the missed draws, but you blocked QQ and QT, which are some of the hands, that might do this for value. If we think, Villain is very polarized here, then a hand like KdKx is a better candidate for folding, because it block a lot of missed draws, and it block no value.

All of this is honestly very advanced for 2NL, but this is also an atypical opponent. You don’t see many LAGs at full ring, and especially not at 2NL, so maybe this players was someone, who moved down to have fun, or he busted his roll and has to rebuild it. This player is not a complete beginner, and that is why, I think, its fair to assume, he is capable of showing up with a bluff.
 
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ibetmyho

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This to me seems a pretty mandatory standard call.
You are close to the top of your range and the run out is perfect for your specific hand.
Villain has lead into you all 3 streets and quite frankly could have anything. There are so many worse hands that I would just snap here and not think too much of it.
 
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maxi_j

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Call. You do not need to be winning all the time. Draws missed You beating KQ and splitting with AQ.
 
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