$2 NLHE Full Ring: AAs facing bet on river flush card

[KKillerss]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $2.02 (101 bb)
UTG+1: $2.83 (142 bb)
MP: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): $2.19 (110 bb)
LP: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $4.59 (230 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP+1 with A♦ A♥
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.06, 1 fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) 5♠ T♦ 3♥ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.13, BU folds, BB calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.45) 6♦ (2 players)
BB bets $0.11, Hero raises to $0.54, BB calls $0.43

River: ($1.53) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets $0.76, Hero ?

open raise 3 BB, not sure if 2.5 should be standard
Turn standard reraise? Shove is EV+?
River - lately I have been very wrong on my bluff catches. Easy Call? Fold?

 

[Great Big Pair]

At 2NL I think 3x open standard. I don't hate smaller opens from EP but at 2 NL why bother.

As played I think flop and turn are fine.

River sucks. Looking at it here, I think it's a fold, but I'm not sure I'd get there in the moment and I may have called it.

We block a flush, but he's gonna have one sometimes. More often a set the way he played here. And every now and then he's gonna have KT and I'm gonna have to punch a hole in my wall.

The river bet just doesn't seem bluffy to me looking at it here. But the river raise makes me think he doesn't have a diamond and is protecting something. Like a set or KT.

 

[nutself]

Having back-door flush on the river is rare in holdem, especially given the bettings on earlier streets, I think I will often call in such situations.

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: bet bigger to 75-100% pot.

T: weird donk sizing by villain. I tank call, because this looks strong. Don't raise: that is overplaying our hand, and most definitely don't use a 5x sizing.

R: as played, another donk, but this time its classic fishy value-town play of "bet small then bet big" on consecutive streets.

I fold: an overpair just isn't good here often enough.

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The reason you are "very wrong with bluff catches lately" is because you are trying to read weak players.

You need reliable (*) information (^) to make reads, eg postflop stats over large samples (thousands of hands). Usually it's not possible to get these large samples in nl2 (^).

Also, weak players play differently from week to week or day to day, sometimes even hour to hour due to tilt.

For example, guy breaks up with his girlfriend today and plays 37/28. Tomorrow they are back together and he plays 19/6. You can't rely on these stats (*).

There's no need to read weak players. Just take them to value-town.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I think that you played good this hand. Pre flop raise is good. At deep stacks 3x is good. The flop bet over 60% of the pot is standard for me, so here is OK. The turn card – it seems that he has some draws, flush draw or straight draw and it seems that he wants to cheaply to see the river card, so raise on the turn is fine. This size raise is OK. The river card – hard decision, because on the river complete the runner runner flush. I think that call on the river won't be a big mistake. So I think that call is standard game. GL

 

[lanelosee100]

Just a call. Why raise turn to fold river bet. Don't jam just call

 

[Poker Orifice]

P: fine.

F: bet bigger to 75-100% pot.

T: weird donk sizing by villain. I tank call, because this looks strong. Don't raise: that is overplaying our hand, and most definitely don't use a 5x sizing.

R: as played, another donk, but this time its classic fishy value-town play of "bet small then bet big" on consecutive streets.

I fold: an overpair just isn't good here often enough.

-----------------

The reason you are "very wrong with bluff catches lately" is because you are trying to read weak players.

You need reliable (*) information (^) to make reads, eg postflop stats over large samples (thousands of hands). Usually it's not possible to get these large samples in nl2 (^).

Also, weak players play differently from week to week or day to day, sometimes even hour to hour due to tilt.

For example, guy breaks up with his girlfriend today and plays 37/28. Tomorrow they are back together and he plays 19/6. You can't rely on these stats (*).

There's no need to read weak players. Just take them to value-town.

Some excellent info. here ^

 

[KKillerss]

The river bet just doesn't seem bluffy to me looking at it here. But the river raise makes me think he doesn't have a diamond and is protecting something. Like a set or KT.

well, set or KT would have busted me. Thankfully I didnt thought on protection... but I should have

Having back-door flush on the river is rare in holdem, especially given the bettings on earlier streets, I think I will often call in such situations.

Thats what I did

T: weird donk sizing by villain. I tank call, because this looks strong. Don't raise: that is overplaying our hand, and most definitely don't use a 5x sizing.

R: as played, another donk, but this time its classic fishy value-town play of "bet small then bet big" on consecutive streets.

I fold: an overpair just isn't good here often enough.

-----------------

The reason you are "very wrong with bluff catches lately" is because you are trying to read weak players.

You need reliable (*) information (^) to make reads, eg postflop stats over large samples (thousands of hands). Usually it's not possible to get these large samples in nl2 (^).

Also, weak players play differently from week to week or day to day, sometimes even hour to hour due to tilt.

For example, guy breaks up with his girlfriend today and plays 37/28. Tomorrow they are back together and he plays 19/6. You can't rely on these stats (*).

There's no need to read weak players. Just take them to value-town.

The 5x was more of a pot bet disregarding V small bet. Was extracting value? Or showed that I wsa afraid of the river?
Thanks for the considerations. They are kind of funny and spot on

The river card – hard decision, because on the river complete the runner runner flush. I think that call on the river won't be a big mistake. So I think that call is standard game. GL

It was a hard call. For some reason, table dynamics, whatever, V looked fishy to me. But I still have that silly thing of be worried about what others will think, like "oh silly fish, cant understand a flush beat AAs."

Just a call. Why raise turn to fold river bet. Don't jam just call

Well, if I knew the river probably wouldnt have made that turn bet

Well, in the end I called and villain had a KQo. As a bluff, if he had shoved might have been a lot harder to call. He probably thought I was happey with a 10