$2 NLHE Full Ring: Is this a profitable jam?

[lackingtoast]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/11/2

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 86 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 9.29, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, hands: 231)
CO: 47.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 24.93, PFR: 10.92, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 359)
SB: 99.5 BB (VPIP: 13.67, PFR: 7.34, 3Bet Preflop: 0.66, Hands: 401)
BB: 133 BB (VPIP: 20.90, PFR: 14.43, 3Bet Preflop: 4.05, Hands: 202)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
UTG+1: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 20.78, PFR: 3.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 79)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.76, PFR: 13.68, 3Bet Preflop: 3.87, Hands: 2,378)
MP+1: 82 BB (VPIP: 22.02, PFR: 9.17, 3Bet Preflop: 11.90, Hands: 111)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: A:spade:

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 11 BB

Flop: (31.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart: 6:spade: 5:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 20 BB, Hero raises to 85 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 63.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (198.5 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:

River: (198.5 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:

BTN shows A:diamond: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 88%, Flop 63%, Turn 80%)
Hero shows K:spade: A:spade: (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 12%, Flop 37%, Turn 20%)
BTN wins 189 BB

3 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

 

[PaxMundi]

Ye jamming is fine here with the nfd+overs vs the value part of villains range your doing just fine with 44% equity. And when you start adding in bluffs and your fold equity and worse fd's villain calls with it's going to be +ev to shove here.

 

[Figaroo2]

The problem here and the clue is the 3bet stat of 1.39 in 359 hands.
I would read this as AA and KK only and if that is his range he's never folding once he bets the flop and you are behind.
Against a higher 3bet stat closer to 4 say you would be ok because he has some hands that will fold to a shove.

Tbh there is just no getting away from this hand as the sample size isnt definitive but you need be aware of these low 3 bet stats (less than 2) they are invariably aces and kings.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, the HUD stats are key here, since we have a large sample, and they are pretty extreme. Even if we assign him a 2% 3-bet, that is still only QQ+ and sometimes AK, so we are doing really poorly against his range, we are out of position, and its a very large 3-bet, partly because we made an oversized raise.

We are also opening UTG, which makes it even more unlikely, that he chose this exact spot to 3-bet us light. So I honestly think, this is just a fold preflop. Before I even saw the results, I said to myself, "he have AA or KK like 90% here". And sure enough he did.

If we did see a flop, I am just calling with my flushdraw and hoping to hit it on the turn. There is no point whatsoever in pushing all in, when his range is essentially only AA, KK and perhaps QQ. There is no fold equity at all, especially not when he already put in more than a third of his stack.

 

[Vlad Savchenko]

Whenever you see someone with a 3-bet this low over such sample, it's just a really, really easy spot to play.

Fold everything that isn't AA/KK or doesn't get odds to outdraw these holdings (with these sizes you actually never get the right odds).

Probably he could also have QQ&AKs from time to time, but this is just an incredibly rare scenario where you're always up against a nutted range. You've only invested 4BB, so just let it go.

Your edge against this player comes not from your ability to outdraw AA, but from not paying him off when he has it (since with these stats 3-bet literally means KK+ most of the time).
And there's another, not so obvious thing - by 3-betting at such a low frequency he allows you to realize equity with hands that you would've folded to a 3-bet.

Postflop, once again, we're up against a nutted range and are likely to have 0 FE. So just call if you're getting the odds, fold if you don't.

 

[Sidetracked]

Honestly, I would just 4 bet and call the inevitable 5bet preflop. Then you chalk it up to the occasional time you run into aces.

As played, I don't like your flop check/shove once you whiff the flop. Your range is capped, his isn't. So all the overpairs to the J are in his range.

 

[Norman Vasquez]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/11/2

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 86 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 9.29, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, Hands: 231)
CO: 47.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 24.93, PFR: 10.92, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 359)
SB: 99.5 BB (VPIP: 13.67, PFR: 7.34, 3Bet Preflop: 0.66, Hands: 401)
BB: 133 BB (VPIP: 20.90, PFR: 14.43, 3Bet Preflop: 4.05, Hands: 202)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
UTG+1: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 20.78, PFR: 3.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 79)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.76, PFR: 13.68, 3Bet Preflop: 3.87, Hands: 2,378)
MP+1: 82 BB (VPIP: 22.02, PFR: 9.17, 3Bet Preflop: 11.90, Hands: 111)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: A:spade:

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 11 BB

Flop: (31.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart: 6:spade: 5:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 20 BB, Hero raises to 85 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 63.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (198.5 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:

River: (198.5 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:

BTN shows A:diamond: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 88%, Flop 63%, Turn 80%)
Hero shows K:spade: A:spade: (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 12%, Flop 37%, Turn 20%)
BTN wins 189 BB

3 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

Wow, for me is not an easy decision, definitely he is really tight, and 3-Bets an UTG raise, so he could have TT+ or AKs. And with a flop of Jh6s5s you have 48.77% equity against his range. So actually is pretty close.

 

[PaxMundi]

After looking more closely ive noticed it's a full ring game and Figaroo2 pointed out villains tight 3bet of 1.39 over 359 hands.You have an extremely tight looking 3bettor vs your utg open in a full ring game.So it could be better to make the exploitable fold pre flop and subsequently exploit villains very tight 3bet frequency by doing so.

 

[Gohaku94]

Yes shoving is fine there. There is no other thing you can do there he is shoving turn anyway with his stack so take your chances on flop better.

 

[fundiver199]

Whenever you see someone with a 3-bet this low over such sample, it's just a really, really easy spot to play.


Fold everything that isn't AA/KK or doesn't get odds to outdraw these holdings (with these sizes you actually never get the right odds).

Exactly. If the HUD-stats presented here are typical, people in this game are insanely passive preflop, and the best strategy is to just fold to 3-bets the majority of the time or call with hands, that can bust an overpair, if the implied odds are good enough.

We have no less than 4 players with an insanely low 3-bet of around 1%, and even the two best players at the table are only 3-betting 4%, which is still only a range like JJ-AA, AK, AQs, so even they are essentially never bluffing. There is one guy with a 3-bet of 12%, but its only over 111 hands, and his PFR is only 9%, so that 3-bet number is almost certainly not real.

In a game like this you can get away with opening more hands, because you will almost never get 3-bet, and you can get away with massively overfolding to 3-bets. These bad regs are never going to exploit you for overfolding, because bluffing is simply not part of their strategy.

To a large extend this probably also carry over to postflop. If one of these bad regs fire two or three bullets after the flop, or raise you at any point, you can be like 99% sure, they have the goods, and you can just fold your bluff catchers. There is no need at all to be balanced and try to play correct poker, when your opponents do not.

 

[fundiver199]

Yes shoving is fine there. There is no other thing you can do there he is shoving turn anyway with his stack so take your chances on flop better.

But then why not just fold the turn, if we are not getting odds to draw? This guy is not getting away from his overpair, even if the flush comes in, so we are playing the turn more perfect than him.

This is almost like, we are Mike Postle in god mode. We know exactly, what Villain have, at least to the point, that its an overpair. But he dont know, what we have, so we have a massive postflop edge against him.

And when we have a massive postflop edge, we can do better than just playing coin flips. This is also why, Mike Postle did not do a lot of 3-betting preflop, and why he often called with fairly marginal hands on the flop. Poker is an easy game, when you know your opponents cards, and this guy is so unbalanced in his 3-betting, that we essentially do.