Originally Posted by teh_colonel_saigon
I 3bet pre because I thought he'd fold out a lot of his raising range... I thought the 2.5 raise looked weak as well.
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG: 115 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 21)
MP: 273 BB (VPIP: 17.67, PFR: 11.74, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 280)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 79)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (SB): 106.5 BB
BB: 189 BB (VPIP: 30.95, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 44)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ A♠
fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 8.5 BB, fold, MP calls 6 BB
Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) 6♦ A♦ A♣
Hero bets 5 BB, MP raises to 15 BB, Hero calls 10 BB
Turn: (48 BB, 2 players) 2♥
Hero checks, MP bets 24 BB, fold
MP wins 46 BB
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I think you folded prematurely here but after 280 hands you should have a pretty good read on your opponent. Had he been raising and betting draws? You have A10 in this spot so it is pretty unlikely that he has an ace, seems more like he has another pocket pair like 10s-KK. I say that because with your ace left, there is only one more ace and if he had something like AK or AQ, then he likely would have 4 bet you preflop although AQ or AJ could have flatted (AK could, but that is much more unlikely because you 3 bet from the SB). Conversely, with AA coming on the flop, he figures that it was unlikely that you had an ace and that his pocket pair is good. Your range really has villain crushed here and his re-raise and bet on the turn smell like either a big pocket pair or something like KQdd. I mean really you are only losing to a few hands that could have called preflop: 66, AJ, AQ and maybe A6hh because hearts is the only suited ace left and villain (if he is any good) would not have called with a non-suited ace. There are 6 combos of 66 (because there is 1 on the flop) 4 combos each of AJ and AQ and 1 combo of A6, which equals 15 combos. Even adding the remote possibility of AK only adds 4 combos to make 19. So, there are 19 hands that have you beat. There are 6 combinations each of KK, QQ, 10s and maybe even 9s in villains range. There are 16 combinations each of KQ, KJ, QJ, J10, of which, I would eliminate all but the ones suited in diamonds because of the re-raise on the flop. That is 4 combinations. I would also include Ax suited that it would be reasonable to call a 3 bet preflop and make this re-raise on the turn. Which from MP would be A2-A5 and A8-A9. Because there is only one ace, there is only 1 combo per hand, so 6 combos. There are also other suited combos such as K9, Q9, J9, 10 9 that could have reasonably called your 3 bet and then make the raise adding about 4 more combos. So, there are around 32 combos that you are crushing.
So, there are 18 BBs in the pot preflop and you raised 5 on the flop? That is under a 1/3 pot sized raise. I like villain raising here because he thinks you are making a blocker bet to draw. This reinforces to me that villain has a bigger pocket pair and that he's in the lead and by you just calling his raise, confirms it in his mind.
On the turn, there are 48 BBs in the pot and villain makes a half pot bet giving you 3:1 pot odds. If you think you are going to win more than 25% of the time. Here, you most likely are against 15-19 combos that you are losing to and winning against at least 32 so you are crushing 62% of his range and you only have to win 25% of the time. This was an easy call or check raise in my opinion.
Of course, if you have a read on the player and know that he ONLY bets the nuts. Then you probably made the right fold. Personally, I would have called and jammed the river if no diamond comes.
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