$2 NLHE 6-max: TP against unknown, bet sizing ok ?

Live2Raise

Live2Raise

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pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $2.91 (146 bb)
MP: $1.98 (99 bb)
CO (Hero): $2.28 (114 bb)
BU: $7.37 (369 bb)
SB: $3.79 (190 bb)
BB: $5.35 (268 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with A T
1 fold, MP raises to $0.06, Hero 3-bets to $0.18, 3 players fold, MP calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.39) 5 6 J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.16, MP calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.71) A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.23

I have absolutely no stats on villain, as is usually the case in Zoom. He calls a 3bet so his range could be QQ-88,AJs-A8s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo (I think he 4bets AQs or AK here).

I bet around 40% since the flop is pretty dry When he calls, I think we can remove JJ and AJ from his range since he probably raise here.

I bet the turn with TP to (barely) protect against draws. That said, I don't see him calling me with a lot of worse hands and since he's unknown, I'd rather consider him decent rather than fishy so I don't think the bet is for value.

What would you have done differently in this spot ?
 
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300HPGOD

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Pre flop is fine to me so jumping to the flop where I think your bet sizing is fine (it is a down bet which is also fine just know some players see that as weakness and others as strength so you could be inviting him to raise there depending on how they see things) but I would not go any smaller than that. In game I probably would just half it there and bet 20 cents.

Your question is more on the turn bet sizing and I dont like the sizing as I feel it is way too small. First, your bet makes the pot 94 cents and villain has to only call 23 cents so they are getting over 4 to 1 so they are getting the right price to draw against you. I think you should up your sizing there to at least 30 cents but probably more in the neighborhood of 40 cents to charge draws and rare but there combo draws. Plus a small bet like that on the turn can convey a "please call me" to villain and they will fold. Its good to make your bet look a little more bluffy vs valuey there. I understand villain could still have Ax here that beats us but I think we hear about those after we bet here on the turn and I would rather bet fold (if we have to) after betting 35-40 cents vs giving someone the right price to draw against me.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Like the 3-bet and your sizing.

Flop
Like the C-bet and your sizing. Its a pretty dry board in a 3-bet pot, and in these situations you dont need to go very large. A small size loses you less when called, and you can still get some hands like KQ to fold out their equity.

Turn
You improve to top pair, and now its time to do some hand reading and put him on a range. Starting with the hands, that beat you, I think, he can have all the sets, he can have AJ, and he can have a few other AX combos like A6 of spades or AQ of spades. He can also have KJs, QJs, JTs, 77-TT, which you beat, and maybe he can have 87s for the OESD. A diamond draw did develop, but because you bet the flop, he can pretty much only have JX of diamonds and maybe once in a while a hand like 54 of diamonds, but thats quite unlikely.

So how do we play best against this range? And for me the answer is mostly to check back. I dont think, you are getting two more streets of value from JX or 77-TT, and if you bet turn, 77-TT especially might actually fold, because you present him with the thread of a tripple barrel. Whereas if you bet the river, after he check to you again, then he can call and get to showdown, and your hand also looks weaker.

Checking back will miss out on value against his draws, but he dont have very many of them, and it also gives him a chance to bluff the river, if for instance his 87s miss. Finally checking back ensure, that you can get yourself to showdown with a hand, which is rather good but not exactly nutted. If you bet, that allow him to put in a check-raise, which would really suck, and you would probably be forced to fold if not now, then at least when he bomb the river.
 
Live2Raise

Live2Raise

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Checking back will miss out on value against his draws, but he dont have very many of them, and it also gives him a chance to bluff the river, if for instance his 87s miss. Finally checking back ensure, that you can get yourself to showdown with a hand, which is rather good but not exactly nutted. If you bet, that allow him to put in a check-raise, which would really suck, and you would probably be forced to fold if not now, then at least when he bomb the river.

After running a quick range check with equilab, I agree with you. There's not that many draws with KdJd, QdJd, KdQd and JdTd. At least assuming that villain is decent and won't call a 3bet with Qd7d oop. On the other hands, I can see calling a bet from villain, depending on the size or just betting ourselves if villain check. The pot would remain smallish and he might try to push us out with 77-TT or a busted flush draw. Right ?
 
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fundiver199

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Most players wont turn 77-TT into a bluff at least not at this beginner level, which 2NL is. So if you check back turn and face a river bet, it will be a little bit concerning, but unless its an overbet or something, I will still call. Other times he will check to you again though, and then you can bet for value.
 
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