$2 NLHE 6-max: Top two pairs river decision on paired board

[quant1986]

Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players, ZOOM/SNAP

Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG (Hero): $1.24 (62 bb)
MP: $1.15 (58 bb)
CO: $1.00 (50 bb)
BU: $2.07 (104 bb)
SB: $1.47 (74 bb)
BB: $0.97 (49 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A♠ K♣
Hero raises to $0.05, MP calls $0.05, 4 players fold

Flop: ($0.13) A♦ 7♣ J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, MP calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.29) K♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, MP calls $0.14

River: ($0.57) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.57, UTG (Hero) folds

Would you still bet the river and hope to get called by worse Ace
or check-call/fold ?


Not enough history on the villain.

 

[TenJack]

As played the questions are:

how many time is he going to a river with Jx.

How much Ax is in his range. Is he going to 3-bet AQ? 3-bet AJ? If he is capable of flatting with AQ then combined with AT we have 16 combos we beat.

I think he can probably have 8 AQ combos, 8 AT combos, maybe we ca give him 2 A9s and 6 A7 combos. So 24 hands we beat. Meanwhile if we are optimistic he can have 1 JJ combo, 3 77 combos, 6 AJ combos, and 6 KJ, 16 QT combos. (32 total) while a more realistic range for 1/2 might have 8 QJ combos and maybe 2 JTs combos. (42)

If we come to a nice hybrid we end up with 24-42 and we are getting exactly 2-1. I have recosidered and I call actually with the A7 and A9 included. I think check calling is fine it would be a stretch to bet-call this river, and a bet-fold line seems inferior because we aren't sure of the hand, so why bet and put ourselves in a spot where villain can only call with a few hands and raise with more.

 

[bbennie1]

"5. Do NOT indicate what the outcome of the hand is, especially in the opening post. This is a truly irrelevant piece of information, since it's an unknown variable when you acted throughout the hand. It also biases the analysis; if I know that you got sucked out on the river, I may not think clearly about what your action should have been on the flop." (https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cas...0/cash-game-hand-analysis-read-before-174514/)

@TenJack If I'm not mistaken 42-24 is 1.75:1 and the odds are (0.57+0.57):0.57=2:1, so then it would be -EV to call, right?

Looking from your opponents point of view, you wouldn't be betting with nothing twice. The only reason where he could think you don't think you have a mad hand already on the flop or the turn is because you bet 0.14 in a 0.29 pot on a drawy board. A slightly higher bet there would've thrown that reason to bluff on the river out the window.

 

[TenJack]

"5. Do NOT indicate what the outcome of the hand is, especially in the opening post. This is a truly irrelevant piece of information, since it's an unknown variable when you acted throughout the hand. It also biases the analysis; if I know that you got sucked out on the river, I may not think clearly about what your action should have been on the flop." (https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cas...0/cash-game-hand-analysis-read-before-174514/)

@TenJack If I'm not mistaken 42-24 is 1.75:1 and the odds are (0.57+0.57):0.57=2:1, so then it would be -EV to call, right?

Looking from your opponents point of view, you wouldn't be betting with nothing twice. The only reason where he could think you don't think you have a mad hand already on the flop or the turn is because you bet 0.14 in a 0.29 pot on a drawy board. A slightly higher bet there would've thrown that reason to bluff on the river out the window.

A: Quant did NOT post the results. Where can you see the results? Maybe you are confused, but saying that you folded is not "indicating the outcome". It is telling us the action in the hand. It would be telling results if he said "I folded and then villain showed JJ" SImply telling us he folded is not going to bias anybody.

B: We have ~54%. We have closer to 65 if we take away half of his QJ and his JT. Don't even think i need to explain.

 

[bbennie1]

A: Quant did NOT post the results. Where can you see the results? Maybe you are confused, but saying that you folded is not "indicating the outcome". It is telling us the action in the hand. It would be telling results if he said "I folded and then villain showed JJ" SImply telling us he folded is not going to bias anybody.

B: We have ~54%. We have closer to 65 if we take away half of his QJ and his JT. Don't even think i need to explain.

I'm here to learn so I'm sorry if I'm not on your level. It appears I got it the wrong way around. According to your read the pot odds are 2:1 or 33% and the chance to win is 42:24 or 1.75:1 or 36%.

 

[Hujiko]

Would normally bet bigger on the turn in this situation, but I still believe it is a fold.

Some math and assumptions:
Preflop he could be very wide for all we know calling with almost all Axs hands and almost all broadway suited hands even AKo is a possibility and ofc allmost all pairs.
After the flop I would discount all hands that not have a piece of the flop. So would say his range is something like: Axs or JJ or KJs or QJs or JTs or 77
After the turn bet his hand should be even stronger so lets say A7s, A9s+, KJs, QJs, JTs, JJ, 77.
On the river he chooses to bet full pot. He could also check here, lets say AQ and A7 would check back here and that the rest of his hands will either bet for value or bluff.
Hands that beat you are
- KJs 1 combo
- QJs 2 combos
- JTs 2 combos
- JJ 1 combo
- 77 3 combos
9 combos that beat you
Hands that you beat are
- ATs 2 combos
- A9s 2 combos
4 combos that you beat
equity is 4/13 is ~ 31% and you need 33% equity so it is close under above assumptions.
As people don't bluff enough and AT and A9 also have some showdown value think your chosen line on the river is correct.