$2 NLHE 6-max: SB steal VS NIT BB

alipalip

alipalip

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What range have BB? Fold to steal 91%
and how we stand aginst his range? Now i know that flop call was a mistake. (maybe if he bet 1/2 pot than call is ok)
iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 161 BB (VPIP: 12.89, PFR: 9.50, 3Bet Preflop: 2.97, hands: 1,580)
CO: 130 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 17)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
Hero (SB): 100.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6:heart: 8:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 4:club: A:heart: 7:spade:
Hero checks, BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) T:heart:
Hero checks, BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

River: (40 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero checks, BB bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 32 BB, BB raises to 141 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 48.5 BB
BB shows J:heart: 7:heart: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 63%, Flop 71%, Turn 80%)
Hero mucks 6:heart: 8:heart: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 37%, Flop 29%, Turn 20%)
BB wins 248.5 BB
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Usually folding this pre but if the guy is folding 91% to steal opening is fine although I think we HAVE to cbet this flop if we are going to steal with this hand. Also barreling this turned flush draw and probably bet/calling river depending on sizings and such.
 
John A

John A

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You have c-bet this flop to a steal. Obviously his fold to steal % isn't as high as you thought. :) But any ways, I don't understand the plan in this hand anywhere. I'd have bet flop and bet turn for pot control. As played bet river. I don't think you're getting someone to stack off here or getting the value you want by CRing. As played CR bigger at least. You're either getting a call or not at that point, and at least to 40-45bbs.
 
Trabendo_daze

Trabendo_daze

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I'm fine with the SB steal vs. this villain, I think your reasoning is there. However, +1 on the having to cbet the flop. SOOOO many good turn cards we can double barrel on to get him to fold low aces (along the lines of what IPlay said). And we really disguise our hand when we actually hit.

I'm with John on betting the river. He's not betting any Aces at this point, and maybe not even 2 pair. However, he will call these hands. If you get raised, you can consider folding/calling based on the price. Against this villain, I certainly wouldn't be too happy about it (calling a river raise) though.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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While a guy with these stats should totally be stolen against, I think the results of this hand really show how willing people are to play cards in the BB when the SB steals. Your stealing range should be vastly different in the SB vs. the button. And while this player folds to steals a lot, you should probably note that he's willing to call BvB in position very wide.

And c-bet the flop.
 
PokerNinja91

PokerNinja91

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Yeah I agree with most of the above and the open is completely fine imo. I'm cbetting here and I'm cbetting this board with almost any 2 cards like 90% of the time.
I'm continuation betting on the turn as we now have a double gutshot and a flush draw.
I'm betting river too when we hit and when we get raised I'm probably just calling depending on the size. It's a pretty gross spot and not much you can do on the river. It would be pretty tough to fold to a raise here though as there aren't many flushes in his range given that the Ah is out there and he (presumably) calls two streets
 
M

MinhANguyen

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C-bet flop with BDFD and gutshot, double barrel turn with turned double gutshot and heart draw, and barrel river.

Check-raising flop is an option, though it sucks if we get reraised and can't realize our backdoor equity. So is folding as you played on the flop with your check. Calling is the worst of the four options. C-bet/barrel good turns > Check-raise > Fold > Calling. I'd prefer the check-raise more if we did not have any backdoor equity and if the A were instead a K, as there are way many more Ax in the BB's calling range than Kx. It is hard to make a pair though let alone top pair. And your hand will be disguised if you hit your gutshot. A lot of players will also check behind if you check-raise a dry board and check the turn, giving you a free river. I don't expect people to ever fold TP, so if I get called, I'm just giving up unless we improve.

All you have is a gutshot; you're not getting the right odds to call. It's not like you're both super deep and he has a monster here often. He'll probably fold all his one pair hands other than Ax, and there are no draws he can call with.

Anyone finding a river fold if we 3-barreled this board run-out and got jammed on? Our range is uncapped, and we can easily have monsters like sets and backdoored flushes. We can't really beat any hands that raise the river for value, and river is a pretty bad spot for Villain to bluff at after we three-barrel such a runout. Bluff-catchers would just call down since we're polarized to nuts/air, people don't really turn hands with SDV into bluffs yet, there aren't really any straight/flush draws out there, and I don't think the BB would call with small suited connectors pre.
 
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