This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Passive villain jams the turn on a wet board but I'm pot committed within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
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UTG: $3.08 (154 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.33
Villain Stats: 31/20/1 Fold to 3-bet: 50, Fold to C-bet: 33 (165 hands)
Villain is very LAG pre-flop but passive and sticky post-flop. I know villain hates folding pre since I had a previous hand with them where they called a 4-bet with QTo and then stacked off with a gut shot.
On the flop I am raising for value against his draws and pocket pairs. Should I have made my raise size even bigger since I know this villain is incredibly sticky even with low equity? The turn connects the board and completes JT and 76 which for this villain I think all 32 combos of these hands are in his range. But I should still be betting big for value here since I know he is continuing with tons of draws and pocket pairs still, right? Would there be any argument for pot control here? Now when he jams on me my odds are too good to fold, but his AF of 1.07 basically tells me he has the nuts. I dont think he has TT,JJ or QQ since he would be going all in pre with those. Would folding the turn be too fancy? Sucks to call off 40bb when I basically know I am beat.
In a 3-bet pot, this is fine. Bet/call the turn. You can make an argument based on your history and read to c/c the turn, but at these stakes I'd still lean towards bet/call. In single raised pot, that's a c/c on the turn.
In this hand you played to commit to the pot. If you got to this point you should call on the turn with the feeling that you have lost, because a competent villain should be ahead with his entire range of values. However, you chose to polarize your range from the flop, to punish too wide a range according to the villain's description. (I would have played like you too, if he called me to a 4-bet with QTo).
This types of paired board textures can be played more passively, or aggressively, when we suspect the villain.
But the possibility of folding our OTT hand makes more sense when we have played more passive. For example if we check the flop or bet 1/3 and then check the turn. As played we should not have fold equity for reasons of our SPR, that It is a fraction of one.