This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Passive villain jams the turn on a wet board but I'm pot committed within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
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UTG: $3.08 (154 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.33
Villain Stats: 31/20/1 Fold to 3-bet: 50, Fold to C-bet: 33 (165 hands)
Villain is very LAG pre-flop but passive and sticky post-flop. I know villain hates folding pre since I had a previous hand with them where they called a 4-bet with QTo and then stacked off with a gut shot.
On the flop I am raising for value against his draws and pocket pairs. Should I have made my raise size even bigger since I know this villain is incredibly sticky even with low equity? The turn connects the board and completes JT and 76 which for this villain I think all 32 combos of these hands are in his range. But I should still be betting big for value here since I know he is continuing with tons of draws and pocket pairs still, right? Would there be any argument for pot control here? Now when he jams on me my odds are too good to fold, but his AF of 1.07 basically tells me he has the nuts. I dont think he has TT,JJ or QQ since he would be going all in pre with those. Would folding the turn be too fancy? Sucks to call off 40bb when I basically know I am beat.
In a 3-bet pot, this is fine. Bet/call the turn. You can make an argument based on your history and read to c/c the turn, but at these stakes I'd still lean towards bet/call. In single raised pot, that's a c/c on the turn.
In this hand you played to commit to the pot. If you got to this point you should call on the turn with the feeling that you have lost, because a competent villain should be ahead with his entire range of values. However, you chose to polarize your range from the flop, to punish too wide a range according to the villain's description. (I would have played like you too, if he called me to a 4-bet with QTo).
This types of paired board textures can be played more passively, or aggressively, when we suspect the villain.
But the possibility of folding our OTT hand makes more sense when we have played more passive. For example if we check the flop or bet 1/3 and then check the turn. As played we should not have fold equity for reasons of our SPR, that It is a fraction of one.
re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Passive villain jams the turn on a wet board but I'm pot committed
If his range is this wide, then he can certainly also have quite a few combos of 9X. For this reason I am not sure, I am completely on board with these very large bet sizes on the flop and turn. Its also kind of awkward, if he call you on the turn, because then pot is 3,1$, and you only have 0,79$ behind. This mean, you cant really fold even on a bad river, and you cant really bluff either. And I think, this kind of situation should simply be avoided.
But as played you choose to play for stacks, and you can not fold, because he stick the rest in on the turn himself. He might also do this with TT-QQ, which are the hands, you are mainly hoping to be against. And you are getting almost 5:1, so you need less than 20% equity to make this call. I plugged the hand into Equilap, and if his range is 88-QQ, JT and 98-A9, all suited as well as offsuit, you had 23,86% equity on the turn, which mean, its a sigh-call.
Hello, I agree in the large part with guys. For me you played well this, I don't any reason to escape in this situation. I think that it is worth to risk with over pair and we can play for all our chips. On paired board we usually have the best hand with over pair. Sometimes we lose, but I saw many time that players on paired board go allin with weaker pair than our, for example they can hit something with 8x or lower pocket pair like 66. If he hit some full houses on the flop or on the turn, I think that it hurts a lot, but it is the part of poker. I think we can't play passive this hand on the flop or on the turn. GL