This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Overpair and nut flush draw on the flop vs. villains overbet jam within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
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Villain Stats: 30/20/3 over 21 hands
UTG: $2.33 (117 bb)
CO: $4.57 (229 bb)
I only have 21 hands on villain but they are not trending towards fish. I am way behind made flushes and sets so I guess I am really only beating other flush draws here, but how often does villain overbet jam the flop on a flush draw without the ace of diamonds? Should I have gotten away from this?
Starting with pre flop I would get in the habit of raising 3x or 3.5x at 2 NL as you will make slightly more money off loose callers and get a little more value on every street when you have those types of hands. It is spitting hairs and means nothing in this hand more than likely but wanted to mention it.
On the flop, I dont think I would raise there unless I made up my mind I am calling anything villain comes back at me with. I would not want to get myself in the spot we are in here. I am not afraid of too many turn cards other than those that pair the board. Raising here would also get villain to fold their bluffs (if they have any) and might even get them to fold weaker Kxs like K10 or K9 if they called pre flop with those hands. They might even fold KJ or KQ if they have no diamonds. Even though it is a small bet I would call or raise very small as I would not want my opponent doing anything other than just calling here.
As far as the decision goes, we dont know a lot about villain but you said that they didnt seem fishy so I will take that as they werent overly loose or stupid post flop so that leans me in the direction that they have a made flush, a set, or have a Kx hand that has a diamond in it that is either a J or a Q. We crush those pair and flush draw hands but are only 33% (give or take a few) against the made flushes and sets. We know we arent getting that price so it comes down to how often you think they would be this aggressive with a one pair hand when you have shown aggression? Its probably not that often so there will be times you fold the best hand here but I think this is a fold here. Sucks for sure but if we call I believe we face a better hand a vast majority of the time.
I think, what happened here, is, that Hero got a little confused by having a draw and a made hand at the same time. Typically in these situations having the made hand is more important than having the draw, and we should pick our line based on the strength of our made hand.
And while AA is a good made hand on K42 monotone, its not a great hand, since either player could obviously have flopped a flush. So I actually think, raising is a bit of an overplay, and especially with this full pot sizing. He is probably not going to fold a hand like KQ on the flop, and especially not if he have Qd.
But if we continue to fire the turn and river, then we might eventually even get him to lay down a set on the river, since we are kind of saying, we have a flush. So we cant bet turn and bet river for value after raising the flop, unless we improve to a flush, and this means, we are almost turning our AA into a bluff. If instead we just call, we can take over the betting, if he check to us, or we can call him down on most runouts and still be in good shape against the range of hands, he get to showdown with. Even without improving our hand.
We did raise though, and when he 3-bet jam for this massive overbet, I just dont think, we are ever ahead. We are also not getting the right odds to draw against a range consisting of made flushes and sets, so as played I think, we have to fold. Which is also part of the reason for not raising on the flop, because it obviously sucks having to fold, when we have a draw to the nuts.