This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Nut straight vs pot size bet on river vs possible flush within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: $18.67 (933.5 bb)
SB: $0.98 (49 bb)
BB: $1.89 (94.5 bb)
UTG: $0.29 (14.5 bb)
I don't know why, but on 10k hands (yeah, small sample), KQs is the hand that I lose the most with so I have a bias here.
Villain is unknown and 50bb deep, this is zoom, standard open, V out of SB.
Flop is interesting, there is a flush draw but overall it's dry so a cbet seems pretty much mandatory, V calls
Turn is even more interesting with a OESD added to my overcards, I cbet turn as well since my situation has improved, I usually get V to fold 44-99 and I still have a lot of equipty when he calls. (Range would probably be A3s, AcXc, TT, JT, QJ+. I think V 3bet or shove pf with JJ+ and AQ+ so apart from AJ, the overcards are clean and apart from a club on the river, the OESD is too so 10 outs in total)
River is bad. Villain donks, he either just got his flush with AsXs or he wants me to fold with a potsize bluff. I think a donk means "I got the flush and I don't want you to check behind with something I beat, please call"
I'll start with a disclaimer that I believe these types of hands could be a big part of why I feel like I suck at cash and normally play tournaments but I'll still post what I think.
I'll also add that the stack of the villain lends me to think they are more fishy than the average player since they are not playing with 100 BBs. That is not always the case of course and I have played with less than 100 BBs at times as well but I also am probably a cash fish lol.
I am going to jump to the turn as I think pre and flop are fine although I think you can check back flop at times as well. I like checking the turn here as played to just go ahead and see if we can hit our straight which has only 6 pure outs instead of 8 with the flush draw as the river shows us. I do believe either the flop or the turn is a check but I probably would have gone the route you did in game and bet flop and check turn.
On the river as played there are some hands that villain could be over valuing like 98 and 109 but those are much smaller chunk of their range vs made flushes. As I mentioned earlier I think this is where I am sucking in cash but I am folding here. My initial guess is the villain is fishy, they called a turn bet they probably shouldnt have and made their flush and then when they did they went big with it. I hate folding straights but if you think you are beat, as I do, you should fold here unless the price is good which it isnt here.
I will add that if you check the turn here then the pot going to the river is 26 cents and then when the villain comes out and bets 25 cents or whatever, even though the price is the same it is a little easier to call (I know in the long run its still -EV) but mentally it is easier to call a 25 cent bet than a 56 cent bet so the hand could have played easier with a check on the turn. I still think I fold to a 25 cent bet into 26 cent pot if that were the case but it would be a lot closer for me.
I'm certainly not fist pumping, but I am calling here.
There are too many hands that villain could be overvaluing here (like some kind of a 3 that he thinks he has brilliantly slow played, a hand like JT or J9 that he doesn't realise is counterfeited vs an over pair).
Hello, I agree in the large part with guys. IMO we should play bigger bet on the flop, because of flush draw. So on the flop bigger raise and later I think that we can check on the turn to control the pot. We have some outs to straight. The river card - I think that we can risk sometimes and call his bet on the river, because the most possible hand that win with our straight is flush, sometimes any full house, but it would be a little risky move from opponent if he went to the river with pocket 99. I think that pocket TT+ he would raise pre flop. GL
It would be nice to have a little extra something like a backdoor flushdraw, but in general I am ok C-betting a lot on this kind of board. Its very difficult for him to hit, and especially on Zoom I think, a small bet like this can get a lot of folds.
I like firing again, when you pick up equity. This is a great barrel card in my opinion, because it apply pressure to 44-99. If he floated with A high, he is also going to fold that now, unless its AQ or AX of clubs exactly. So you can definitely get some folds now, and its a big leak to mindlessly C-bet every single flop but then only C-bet the turn for value. There is nothing wrong with sometimes checking back a hand like this, but for me its a great hand to have in your bluffing range.
I am not super thrilled about facing this almost pot sized donk bet, but I think, your hand is simply to strong to fold. To defend correctly against a pot sized bet you need to call with half the hands, that you get to the river with this way. This is often referred to as MFD (Minimim Defense Frequenzy). And obviously you have a lot of other hands, that are now worse than KQ. Like overpairs or JX. AK or AQ that also went for the dubble barrel with a gutshot and two overs.
I am not saying, we need to play 100% GTO in a 2NL Zoom game, but I dont think, we have any population read, that this donk bet is always a nutted hand. I think, some people will show up with fairly random bluffs here, that were just looking for a scare card to make you fold on the river. And others might be overplaying trips or two pair, because they are kind of confused and dont know, what to do. Or he could have the same hand as yours. So I sigh-call here, and if he rivered a flush or slowplayed a boat, then good for him