This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Nut flush draw in 3 Bet pot within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/15/4
Jumping back into a bit of 2nl after a break.
Villain 17/15/4, is particularly aggressive on the flop (AF:9) but had folded 5/6
Villain 17/15/4, is particularly aggressive on the flop (AF:9) but had folded 5/6 flops vs C Bets. Looks positionally aware so some kind of, at least, semi decent TAG. He has a high 4 bet ratio (7) and folded 2 of 4 times to 3 Bet (a worthless sample size of both counts) and only 273 hands so dangerous to assume very much more.
FLOP: I threw out a 33% ish C Bet, pretty standard for me currently after I've 3 Bet, which was raised. At the time I thought that was about a 50/50 as far my odds to call the raise to hit the flush. I discounted any outs involving pairing the A or K as I could easily pair one or the other and still be beat or chop. Anyway, I called.
Alarm bells were going off however. When he makes this raise I'm leaning heavily towards him having a queen, QQ or AQ. Maybe KQ. 88 possible. Basically something pretty nuttish and I think I am almost always behind vs this move vs this player pool (888 SNAP at a pretty rotten reg infested time of the day). Given that... seeing as the odds were barely good enough, should I have just laid down if I am that sure I'm nearly always way behind here?
I'd be surprised if AA or KK had not 4 bet pre. It could be an aggressive move with AK to get me to lay down, maybe. JJ/TT/99 surely not raising here. I dont really imagine other hands like QJ raising here either, unless perhaps QJ of spades.
TURN: The K on the turn gives me TPTK but I am not massively thrilled. I do feel like it is going to be hard to get away now. I was probably calling any bet once the K hit, but as played villain's small bet again sees me just scraping a 50/50 on the odds to hit the flush.
He has so little left behind compared to the size of the pot I just shove. Might be some deeper analysis required on what that actually achieves besides making sure I win the full amount when he calls and I hit. You could argue if he had AQ and folds when I shove over the top I'm actually losing money. Struggling to see a hand beating me that I fold out with that shove. Pretty sure I should have just taken my barely decent odds and called, and taken the river as it came.
I think this player out well for you. I typically don't like to go All in with draws after the flop but with two overs as well I'd have clicked the call button as well. Terrible runout for the set. Nice hand