This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Made Nut-Flush on Paired Board facing river shove within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker
UTG: $1.34 (67 bb)
MP: $6.57 (329 bb)
CO: $2.30 (115 bb)
BU: $1.97 (99 bb)
In the hand I knew I was behind to sets but I was also thinking about how many possible off-suited hands with a good heart he may do this with as it seems at 2nl many players overplay their hands, making it difficult to really know if they have nut hand or over-played hand. Thoughts?
When SB has already called, I might actually just let go on bottom pair. In multiway pots you dont need to defend as wide as heads up, and especially not when other players have already given action. Not a big mistakes, but probably this is a slightly losing call long term.
You picked up the nut flushdraw, and now SB makes a small donk bet. Obviously not going to fold, and his sizing looks weak, so I can see some merits for raising here and turning your hand into a bluff. Its not like, bottom pair has any sort of significant showdown value against two opponents, But calling is certainly a profitable play as well, and it allow you to potentially get away, if something crazy happen like BTN raising and SB jamming.
Made the nut flush and now SB check to you. Definitely have to bet for value, and sizing looks good. Now of course the interesting part, since BTN moves all in. You are getting a bit better than 2:1, so need to be good 30% of the time to justify a call. Looking first at his boats, the logical ones are QQ, 77 and 66. 33 is impossible and Q3, 73, 63 very unlikely, partly because you hold one of the remaining 3`s in your hand, and its rare to see these hands opened even from BTN.
QQ, 77 and 66 should realistically have raised the turn facing that small donk bet rather than potentially allow two opponents to hit a 1-card flush or straight on the river. But at 2NL many players are overly panicked about flushes, as soon as 3 cards of the same suit is on the board. And many also dont really understand bet sizes, and how weak such a small bet is. So I can certainly see him make a bad just call on the turn, because he is worried, someone might already have a flush.
So there are potentially 9 combos of boats, we lose to, and that mean, we need to find 4 combos, that we beat. Would he overvalue K of hearts? Its tough to say without reads, but at 2NL its certainly possible. So I probably hate life and pay him off. But I would not consider a fold to be crazy either. So often at these stakes a big raise on the river is the nuts, and people are just not bluffing with a line like this.
It's a nasty spot, and I think I would probably make a crying call. In Omaha, any time the board pairs, you can be fairly sure that your flush or straight are no longer good. Not so much in Holdem, so I don't think a call is terrible.
Not that Im a good player, but sometimes we face so crazy and bad moves in these stakes that is hard to think logical sometimes.
I wouldnt be surprised that his low bets is kind of slow playing, and wouldtb be surprised with a K or J of hearts either.