$2 NLHE 6-max: Made Nut-Flush on Turn, river get shoved on paired board

C

Casey55

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V stats: 21/16/02 (93 hands)

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG (Hero): $6.01 (301 bb)
MP: $2.49 (125 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.65 (133 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $2.04 (102 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with 4 A
Hero raises to $0.06, 4 players fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) K 3 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.04, BB raises to $0.18, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.49) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.31, BB calls $0.31

River: ($1.11) J (2 players)
BB bets $1.49 (all-in), Hero...?
 
F

fundiver199

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Preflop
I also open any suited ace from any seat in a 6-max game.

Flop
I would go a bit larger with the C-bet and also call his check-raise.

Turn
Standard bet for value, and sizing looks fine.

River
First of all we need to determine, how many boats he can realistically have. KK and JJ probably 3-bet pre or at least KK, and there is only 1 combo of JJ. J3 and J2 fold pre, and J2 also dont check-raise the flop, since its second pair no kicker. 22 dont check-raise flop either, since its an underpair to the board. So realistically we are looking at KJ (6) and 33 (3) for a total of 9 combos, that you lose to.

You are facing an overbet, so to profitably call, you need to find somewhere around 7 combos of other stuff, that he would play like this. A worse flush makes no sense for him to check-call turn and then donk jam river, when the board pair. So if we call, we are hoping for overplayed JX or a bluff.

He is a typical TAG, and I think, this is one of those spots, where a microstakes TAG is very face up, and that this is a boat maybe 90% of the time. So while its slightly exploitable, I think, you can fold and move on to the next hand. If people never bluff, when they put their entire stack in on the river, we dont need to pay them off with bluff catchers.
 
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Hermus

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Preflop
He is a typical TAG, and I think, this is one of those spots, where a microstakes TAG is very face up, and that this is a boat maybe 90% of the time. So while its slightly exploitable, I think, you can fold and move on to the next hand. If people never bluff, when they put their entire stack in on the river, we dont need to pay them off with bluff catchers.


I second this. I could see a king-high flush taking this line sometimes, but the king of hearts is already on board so we beat almost nothing.
 
Vallet

Vallet

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I think in this hand the key moment happens on the flop. You need to think about which cards the opponent will check-raise with. A pot-sized raise is a lot. And with which hand you will check-raise on this flop. Two pairs or a set are possible. If you come to this conclusion, then it will be easier to fold on the river.
If we wanted to get to the showdown, it was necessary to avoid aggressive actions on the flop. The opponent made a check and you could also check. A re-raise is not something you would want to get on the flop right now. It was harder for him to bet on the turn and all in on the river would be a huge bet indicating an obvious full house.
If the opponent has read that you have caught a flush on the turn. Because the size of the bet may suggest this. Then this bluff is brilliant.
 
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gustav197poker

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On the river you may be late. For your call to be profitable, V needs to bluff more than 30% of the time. But first it is observed that your range is very strong, since you are opening from the UTG position.
However, if you already know your opponent, he may also have an idea about your image.
Therefore assuming this, we could make a small review of how we are:
Combos that beat you:
6c: KJ and 3c: 33. Total 9.
Bluff combos:
QKo (3c w / Qh); K3s (2c); QThh-Q8hh + Q3hh (4c). Total 9.
That is, if your opponent thinks about balance, you meet the necessary conditions for your call to be profitable on the river.
Is this possible? Well, to find out here we should remember the history that we have with V in the 93 hands that we have played with. The showdowns and part of his defensive range, which he had from BB.
If we have the perception that this V is more LAG from the blinds (acceptable perception) it is possible to include some additional bluffs in his range.
But we can also be talking about a V that generally does not cheat on the river when he overbets (more likely in these stakes) in which case it is more likely that we have made the correct decision on the river.
Greetings.
 
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fundiver199

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Answered to this already, but I think, its a really interesting hand, which a lot of beginners or even intermediate players can learn from. From the people responding there seem to be a general agreement, that maybe we can actually fold here. Thats a little surpricing to me, because I would actually have expected, that at least someone would have come in with statements like "we cant put him only on the nuts", "we are to high in our range to fold" or "its 2NL and people do all sorts of weird shit".

But to take the last statement first, while its true, that there is a lot of crazy action at 2NL - some call it "the circus" - its usually people making loose calls not wild bluffs. And the crazy action also tend to come from recreational players not a TAG like this. This kind of player has actually studied the game and is taking it very serious, and the most likely reason, he is playing 2NL, is because, he is not bankrolled for higher stakes. He is most likely from a country like Russia or brasil, and he is almost certainly multitabling.

And while he is probably not a great poker player, the areas, where he has flaws, is mostly in balance. He is simply playing his hand, and most of, what he is doing, is focused on value. And if we look at the actions, he took in this hand, check-raise flop, check-call turn, donk jam river for an overbet, these actions are all very consistent with KJ or 33 and really nothing else.

If he had a hand like AJ, would he really check-raise the flop, when Hero can easily have KX, AA or a set? No. He would check-call. If he had QT, which flopped an OESD, would he really swich into check-call mode on the turn, when a card comes, which might scare Hero? Would he not fire again himself, especially if he had Qh or Th?

And if he cant have a busted draw on the river, because his draws either got there or would have bet the turn, then what bluffs can he even have? Do we think, he is taking a hand like KQ with Q of hearts and turning it into the bluff? Thats really advanced, and we are playing 2NL here not 200NL or 50NL.

Finally I think, many of the regs at 2NL and 5NL have read "Crushing the Microstakes", and one of the recommendations in that book is to overbet a full house on a flushy or straighty board to take advantage of the fact, a lot of people have a difficult time getting away from hands above a certain nominal strenght. This was just a long way for me to say, that if Hero called here, I would be really shocked to hear, that Villain flipped over basically anything other than KJ or 33 :)
 
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