Answered to this already, but I think, its a really interesting hand, which a lot of beginners or even intermediate players can learn from. From the people responding there seem to be a general agreement, that maybe we can actually fold here. Thats a little surpricing to me, because I would actually have expected, that at least someone would have come in with statements like "we cant put him only on the nuts", "we are to high in our range to fold" or "its 2NL and people do all sorts of weird shit".
But to take the last statement first, while its true, that there is a lot of crazy action at 2NL - some call it "the circus" - its usually people making loose calls not wild bluffs. And the crazy action also tend to come from recreational players not a TAG like this. This kind of player has actually studied the game and is taking it very serious, and the most likely reason, he is playing 2NL, is because, he is not bankrolled for higher stakes. He is most likely from a country like Russia or
brasil, and he is almost certainly multitabling.
And while he is probably not a great poker player, the areas, where he has flaws, is mostly in balance. He is simply playing his hand, and most of, what he is doing, is focused on value. And if we look at the actions, he took in this hand, check-raise flop, check-call turn, donk jam river for an overbet, these actions are all very consistent with KJ or 33 and really nothing else.
If he had a hand like AJ, would he really check-raise the flop, when Hero can easily have KX, AA or a set? No. He would check-call. If he had QT, which flopped an OESD, would he really swich into check-call mode on the turn, when a card comes, which might scare Hero? Would he not fire again himself, especially if he had Qh or Th?
And if he cant have a busted draw on the river, because his draws either got there or would have bet the turn, then what bluffs can he even have? Do we think, he is taking a hand like KQ with Q of hearts and turning it into the bluff? Thats really advanced, and we are playing 2NL here not 200NL or 50NL.
Finally I think, many of the regs at 2NL and 5NL have read "Crushing the Microstakes", and one of the recommendations in that book is to overbet a full house on a flushy or straighty board to take advantage of the fact, a lot of people have a difficult time getting away from hands above a certain nominal strenght. This was just a long way for me to say, that if Hero called here, I would be really shocked to hear, that Villain flipped over basically anything other than KJ or 33