This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Low set on wet high card board within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/10/1
Reviewing last night's hands. This is a bit awkward. I'm fine with the flop re-raise. Hate the turn card a bit. Assume
Reviewing last night's hands. This is a bit awkward. I'm fine with the flop re-raise. Hate the turn card a bit. Assume my thinking was to shove turn to avoid an even more awkward river spot. I mean, at least I have some fold equity, right, to add to all the times I am ahead now and he doesn't get there? Looking at a 10-12% opening range for villain I am something like 40% here against his range. Thoughts?
To know if we have fold equity on the turn, we must think with what hands Villain thinks we called preflop. We are a wide range from SB? If the answer is yes, now OTT we have several strong random hands that formed a straght. In that case, villain should call your overbet with the top of his range and fold all the other remaining hands.
If in preflop we only call with medium and low value hands, it is possible that now OTT we bluff a medium strength hand for this texture (sets).
In that case, the villain will defend his position and can call with the best sets. Given his opening position at the table, hopefully V has a lot of JJ and KK here. When V called OTT with AA, it seems like he thought you could call in pretty mixed proflop, but with the upper structure of your range, starting with the middle conectors like QJ +. Or maybe this villain isn't really thinking much about ranks given the stake being played.
I am ok going for the out of position setmine here, but against good players I might fold. For this to be profitable, you need an opponent, who will take second best hands to far postflop.
Ok with the check-raise.
Terrible card and I lean towards checking. I think, when you pile it in, you are almost forcing him to play well by folding the vast majority of his worse hands and only continuing with hands, you are behind to. AA with a heart is one of the very few hands, you might get value from, and even that hand had 30% equity.