$2 NLHE 6-max: How many streets of value to bet against calling station?

d4d5c4e6 · Nov 4, 2021

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 75/13/1

Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players

SB: 106 BB
BB: 742.5 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 185.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A♣ T♥ 4♠
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 2♦
BB checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, BB raises to 38 BB, Hero calls 28.5 BB

River: (90.5 BB, 2 players) T♦
BB bets 59.5 BB, Hero calls 55 BB and is all-in

BB shows J♠ T♣ (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 13%, Flop 18%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows Q♠ Q♣ (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)
(Pre 87%, Flop 82%, Turn 89%)
BB wins 188 BB

Villain was calling bets (up to 3 streets) with complete air earlier so I c-bet with a middle-strength pair. He then raised the turn on a fairly blank card which seemed like a bluff (would he really call a raise with 53?) so I called him down but unfortunately he rivered trips with middle pair...

Hermus · Nov 4, 2021

Against a whale, you can probably go for three streets. It's pretty thin though so defaulting to check/calling turn and/or river is also fine I think.

Even though the turn is a blank, and BB should have barely any raises on this board, facing a raise against a loose passive whale should still be a red flag. Not going as far as to say it's definitely a snap fold, but against this player type, you'll need to be careful.

As played, the river pairing the board on a medium card is definitely better for villain's range so they're allowed to bet more, and for this sizing, you're allowed to fold a decent amount as well. As you already called a turn raise, QQ can very comfortably fold on the river against any player type but especially this one.

Sidetracked · Nov 5, 2021

This is so player dependent, and having the Ace on the board does complicate things.

The only thing maybe to change is that if you believe you're good on the turn, just get the money in then.

mktpppr · Nov 5, 2021

P: fine.

F: check back, vs 75/13 types we can't barrel for 3 streets on that flop anyway.

We exploit whales by playing for max value 100% of time, nothing else. We don't bluff them or go for thin value.

Villian's BB flatting range pre is massively wide and will include 53 but also Ax, broadway etc which hits that flop hard.

T: as played, check back. We're not moving him off Ax or broadway draw.

As played, easy bet/fold vs huge check/raise. We're playing guessing games: Ax beats us, 53 beats us, he might be bluffing with Tx 4x, but at low frequency.

Turn is only a blank vs tight ranges, not vs whale ranges.

R: as played, easy fold. Again, we're playing guessing games on a horrible board. Now Tx beats us as well.