Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/18/2.2

Hello there, so first of all I know that my preflop open-raise was too small, and that's where all the problems started, but my question will be about my river play. Villain on the BB has 33/18/2.2, 3/0 3B/F3B and 36/60 WTSD/W$SD with sample size of 89 hands.


PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BTN: $2.27 (113.5 bb)
SB: $2.62 (131 bb)
BB: $5.99 (299.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $2.67 (133.5 bb)
CO: $1.15 (57.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has
Hero raises to $0.05, CO calls $0.05, BTN calls $0.05, fold, BB calls $0.03

Flop: ($0.21, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.51, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

River: ($1.11, 2 players)
BB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Results: $2.71 pot ($0.09 rake)
Final Board:

BB shows : (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 21%, Flop 44%, Turn 30%)

Hero shows : (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 79%, Flop 56%, Turn 70%)

Hero wins $2.62

So I was thinking that my opp could't have set (otherwise he'd check-raise me flop/turn) or two pairs (because river bet doesn't make any sense). So for me it looks like opp can have one of two things - straight or bluff with busted flush-draw/pair - nothing else. Furthermore, his sizing was pretty suspicious - maybe I'd fold if villain would bet 50-60% pot. What do you think about this river call and how often he'd have his straight on this spot?

So it is 4way and BB led after check-call two streets. I think you can find an exploitative fold here as you got Ac.

BB could bet two pairs and J9/T9 on this board as you could easily check back with AJ and overpairs on the river. Would villain bet AJ...probably not

I am surprised villain didn't check raise with pair +flush draws on the flop/turn.

I would raise pre-flop so it wouldn't be 4-way on the flop. And then you raise so big on the flop that everybody knows that you have big pockets. In the river sometimes you are right and sometimes you are wrong. But I wouldn't call this one but good resultwise.

It's a tough spot on river. When villain leads 2/3 pot. it's going to be a straight or a bluff. (Although it is possible at these stakes people might make random leads with 2 pairs).
On the river we ourselves are going to have some straights also, if we barrelled j9s or other random 9x combo's so we cannot say Aces are at the top of our range here. We also then have the Ac so we block possible flush draws he could have.
I would advocate to fold here unless you have a solid read on villain.

Well, it's 2NL so I think a river call is fine. Since it's MW on the flop, you shouldn't be betting flush / straight draws as often OOP, and at higher stakes your opponent would know this about your range and would bet the river because they wouldn't be checking to you to induce your bluffing range.

So I'm assuming that's probably not really being considered and hence, your opponent should be checking his made hand range to you on the river instead of betting. So calling is fine.

You should fold river. Reverse sizing tells quite rare.

Originally Posted by John A

Well, it's 2NL so I think a river call is fine. Since it's MW on the flop, you shouldn't be betting flush / straight draws as often OOP, and at higher stakes your opponent would know this about your range and would bet the river because they wouldn't be checking to you to induce your bluffing range.

So I'm assuming that's probably not really being considered and hence, your opponent should be checking his made hand range to you on the river instead of betting. So calling is fine.

Can you explain your second paragraph? If V had a made hand, why wouldn't he throw out some bet to try and get sigh-calls from hero? Do you think they believe hero fires a 3rd barrel most of the time?

Preflop
There is nothing really wrong with raising 2,5X, but at 2NL you can certainly get away with a larger size and still get plenty of action.

Flop and turn
I like betting, and I like your sizing, even though its always a bit scary to have an overpair in a 4-way pot. You are just kind of praying, that nobody sucked out on you on the flop, while trying to get value from draws and worse one pair hands.

River
Its difficult to not be results oriented after seeing his hand, but I think, this is a long term losing call against the population in the micros. I agree, his only value hand is a straight, but the issue is, its exceptionally easy to have a straight, when there is a 1-liner on the board. He defended his blind against a small raise, so he can certainly have all combos of J9, T9 and 98, and those hands would play exactly like this.

This is 36 combos already, and while he could be bluffing, you need to find a lot of bluff combos, when he can have so many combos for value. If its only missed clubs, there are simply not enough to those, especially since you have Ac blocking some of those missed flush draws, which you want him to have.

I also don’t read anything particularly into his bet size. It is very common for bad players to make a very large bet, when they have the nuts, because they want to get paid. Donk betting also makes complete sense on a card, that completely change the texture of the board. If he does have a 9, he kind of has to lead out, because if he check, you are just going to check behind with so many hands including this one.

It worked this time, but in general I will say, that the way to a high winrate and also less variance and less tilt in the micros is to not make hero calls like this. Usually people have, what they say, they have, and you don’t get rewarded for being the table sheriff.