$2 NLHE 6-max: Folding Top Two, Should I have let it go sooner?

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.61 (81 bb)
CO: $3.11 (156 bb)
BU: $2.42 (121 bb)
SB: $1.79 (90 bb)
BB (Hero): $3.91 (196 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with K♦ Q♠
UTG calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.10, UTG calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.23) J♥ Q♦ K♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.11, UTG raises to $0.22, Hero calls $0.11

Turn: ($0.67) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.33, Hero calls $0.33

River: ($1.33) 5♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.96 (all-in), BB (Hero) folds


Villain Stats: 26/4/1 (47 hands)

Villain is trending towards very passive. When he re-raises the flop he COULD have some bluffs with a T or A but even that is probably super rare for this player. By the time he is barreling on the river I'm assuming his range is strictly 16 combos of AT which I'm losing to and 10 combos of 2-pair that I'm beating or chopping with (QJ, KQ). I guess I have 4 outs if he has AT and some good implied odds if I hit them, but does this make it worth it to call? I'm not sure how to calculate what my equity here is when factoring in implied odds.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You dont always have to go for the isolation out of position, but I am totally fine doing it with KQo.

Flop
Not loving, that he min-raised, but obviously have to call and see, what develops.

Turn
The issue with this situation is, the straights are unblocked, so he can have all 32 combos of them, and he can only have 12 combos of KJ or QJ, which you beat. Even so I think, the turn is still a call. Once in a while he might have some kind of bluff, even though its very unlikely with a passive player like this. Or he made a silly limp-call with AA or AK, and now he is overplaying his hand.

And as you say, you have implied odds. If you make a boat, you are 100% going to stack him, if he has a straight. Against a straight you are calling 0,33 on the turn to win 1,33+0,96, which mean you need 14,4% equity. You dont have that against a straight, but add in just a few combos of hands, you beat, like the worse two pair, and I think, laying this down on the turn would be to nitty.

River
Now I think, you have a pretty easy fold. Some of the hands, you beat, might actually slow now down, because they realise, they overplayed. So when he jam here, I think, we are looking at a straight the vast majority of the time.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Great example and explanation of when implied odds are actually useful rather than an excuse to make a bad call, and when you see an example like this very easy to work out and call accordingly.

Nothing to add really besides saying I might have value c bet slightly larger on the flop to charge any draws or one pair hands, or worse two pair hands.

 

[braun_kan]

And as you say, you have implied odds. If you make a boat, you are 100% going to stack him, if he has a straight. Against a straight you are calling 0,33 on the turn to win 1,33+0,96, which mean you need 14,4% equity. You dont have that against a straight, but add in just a few combos of hands, you beat, like the worse two pair, and I think, laying this down on the turn would be to nitty.

Thank you for the help, this makes a lot of sense. What does the math look like for our equity after factoring in combos that villain has which we beat?

For simplicity, lets say that after his turn bet villain has 16 combos of AT and 4 combos of T9s that we are losing to, 12 combos of KJ and QJ we are beating, and 4 combos of KQ we are chopping with.

For his 20 combos of straights, we have 4 outs that give us a boat which is about 8% equity. For his 12 combos of two pair that we beat we have 95% equity calculated via equilab. For his 4 combos of KQ, we have exactly 50% equity.

20 (.08) + 12 (.95) + 4(.5) = 15
20(1) + 12(1) + 4(1) = 36

15/36 = 42% equity total (Equilab gives the same result for our hand vs this range)

We have implied odds for the portion of equity against his straight combos. Lets assume there are no implied odds against any of his two-pair combos and that these would go check-check on the river. I will also ignore rake.

Then we are expecting to win 162bb from the portion of our equity against his straights, 66.5bb from the portion of our equity against his crushed 2-pair, and 33.25bb from the portion of our equity that chops with villain.

Percentage of our equity with implied odds:
20(.08) /15 = 11%
.11(42) = 4.62% of the time we make 162bb

Percentage of our equity without implied odds:
12(.95)/15 = 76%
(.76)(42) = 31.92% of the time we make 66.5bb

Percentage of our equity that we chop:
4(.5)/15 = 13%
(.13)(42) = 5.46% of the time we make 33.25bb


100 - 42 = 58% of the time we lose 16.5bb from calling villain and losing at showdown.

[.0462(162bb) + .3192(66.5bb) + .0546(33.25bb) + .58(-16.5)] /1 = 20.9bb on avg

So given these assumptions, calling on the turn here will make us 20.9bb on average? This is my first time trying to calculate something like this so I'm not sure I've done it correctly.

 

[fundiver199]

You cant really make exact calculations, when we are talking about implied odds. In this situation for instance there is also the chance, the river is a brick, and he moves all in. If we then fold, we might have gotten bluffed off the best hand, but if we call, we pay him off, when he has a straight. So the proper thing is to calculate the actual equity in Equilab, as you did, and then just give a bit of thought to, how well we can play the river.