re: Poker & €2 NLHE 6-max: Flush draw calling the turn, are implied odds good enough?
Originally Posted by GreenDaddy1
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/10/1
iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 39.5 BB
SB: 85 BB
Hero (BB): 135 BB
UTG: 99.5 BB
CO: 153 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2♠ A♠
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, SB calls 6 BB
Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) 7♣ 5♣ 8♠
SB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB
Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 6♠
SB bets 21 BB, Hero ?????
Villain here has given me poor pot odds to call to the flush draw. But do the implied odds make it worth the call? (I understand a flush draw has worse implied odds than a straight draw due to how much more obvious it looks on the board when it runs out.)
My feeling at the time as played was villain made the straight, and that I was going to take their stack fairly often if I hit the nut flush but be losing the hand if I missed my draw.
Realistically villain will not always have the straight, they could also be drawing to one or the other flush draw, or to the straight, or less likely have an overpair or a set (range vs range I actually though I was beaten by the turn about 55-60% of the time when I took a look after the fact with an equity calculator). The lead out on the turn though reeked of strength from a villain who has only bet on 3/19 turns over 128 hands, with a WTSD 8/32 (25). I'm not relying heavily on those stats given the small sample, but they did have me leaning towards thinking the straight was made when villain leads out on the turn with a strong bet - in other words I felt I was beat in this spot unless the flush draw came in and I made the call based on the implied odds as my equity vs the pot odds suggested it was not a good call. Was this correct?
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Hello there GreenDaddy1, thank you for posting your hand.
Preflop Action:
Given that the SB is a recreational player, we see no problem in raising here with A2s, because SB position attempts to steal a lot of blinds and A2s will have a good playability postflop in position.
Sometimes, when SB 4-bets we must go for a 5-bet shove here, because of the removal.
SB calls your 3x 3bet and we take a flop:
The Flop:
This kind of mid connected flop favours more the SB's range than yours. It is very close here between betting and checking. Ever since SB decided to check, we could check behind too and see a free turn and evaluate our equity by the same time we don't make the pot grows too much.
When we c-bet 1/2 pot in a 3-bet pot we will have a lot of bluffs here. What do we have hit? A8 that hit TP and it is firing the pot? AA? KK? Okay, we do have these hands on our range, because we 3-bet preflop, however I don't see many turns and rivers so good for us.
Your 1/2 pot C-bet is way too optmistic. When SB calls you gotta ask which part of the 20% 3-bet call SB vs BB does it continue with.
The Turn:
If we had checked, SB could not bet so heavy here in the turn. And when SB donks this turn it seems a lot a bet for protection: there are two flush draws and the turns completes some straights with 4x and 9x.
Or if we had made a 1/3 pot bet, maybe we could have the proper odds to call this donk turn.
Here is a very tricky scenario, where we could be almost dead for straights. We don't have many options here, but IMO, calling is never an option here. We are either jamming here or folding, and I guess the fold is a little +EV line.
Against a very wide range we are barely breakeven. However, we don't know for sure what is SB donking with.
You have to know how do you play your entire range from the BB when you 3-bet preflop and polarizes flop by betting 1/2 pot: You have AA, KK, QQ, TT, 99, AKs, A2s, AQs, sometimes 77 and 88.
We know that when you have AA, KK, QQ, TT and 99 you are not folding very easy here, specially 99 because now you have a very strong value hand. AKs, A2s, AQs, Ax suited in general we must consider if we are going to polarize connected flop as we do with AA, KK and QQ.
You gotta have a checking range somewhere, you gotta find it for yourself.
In the worst case scenario, in this turn, we would have something between 20% to 27% equity to hit our flush in the river and Villain bets a little more than 1/2 pot.
Maybe we are good here QQ, JJ, TT, But this turn completes way too much Villain's equity almost anything it has right now is killing us, so no aces or deuces are going to be good in the river, only the flush. We know that if we jam here now, SB would never fold, so we can see that SB has a clear range advantage when it donks turn:
99-44, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s
All of this range is beating us in this turn, without counting QQ, JJ, TT that it decided to call 3-bet preflop.
PS: Forget about WTSD and similar stuff, unless you have more than 5 K hands played with villain. We ae not playing HUD Display, but poker, sorry for my candor.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
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Respect and gl always!
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