$2 NLHE 6-max: flopped straight, turn brings flushes

[Casey55]

villain just sat down this was his 1st or 2nd hand. On the flop I bet half pot, maybe I should have gone 2/3pot.. I am looking to get value from any spade draw, any two-pair, any K or Q.

On the turn I bet again because I think even though he can have flushes I think he can also have a bunch of two pairs, AT, etc.. if he is a fishy player he can be playing a bunch of off-suited combos. When villain raises me I'm not happy but I don't think I can fold yet especially given his small raise sizing. The river doesn't change much and he bets again.. I am putting him on a fairly wide range still because he's 2nl player in this spot and think he can still have a variety of two-pairs, and I think he could be playing this way with a Tx aswell. what do you think?


pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $0.93 (47 bb)
MP: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $1.53 (77 bb)
BU: $2.11 (106 bb)
SB: $1.93 (97 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.24 (112 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.05) Hero is BB with 9♦ T♦
1 fold, MP checks, 2 players fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.10, MP calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.22) Q♣ K♠ J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.46) A♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.29, MP raises to $0.58, Hero calls $0.29

River: ($1.62) 2♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.78, Hero...?

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: bet bigger to 75-100% pot.

T: we have to slow down and check/evaluate. As played, yes bet/call vs min-raise.

R: check/crying call vs small-ish bet.

 

[Hermus]

I ran the hand through a solver and I don't really know what to make of it . Probably not the most useful post I've ever made, but I thought it was a surprising solve so here we go. Disclaimer though that copy-pasting this strategy is probably sub-optimal. On the flop it bets range, and then on any spade that brings 4 to the straight (As, Ts, 9s, 8s) it checks range. My guess is, because the OOP player c-bets range and the IP player is folding somewhere between 50% and 65% depending on bet-sizing, the IP is left with such a range advantage that we can't realistically bet a polarised range and should just try to check-raise polar and bluff catch a ton.

Not all that useful really because I suspect against most microstakes players you can still bet for thin value on the turn, though it's worthwhile to note that Td9d are pure calls both on the turn and river so the equilibrium strategy is to "bluffcatch" with the straight here. If we remove all pure bluffs from villains range the calling frequency drops a lot (in fact it only continues with the royal flush) and T9 is a pure fold so against nits and passive players in general, making an exploitative fold on the river doesn't seem the worst.

 

[Casey55]

I ran the hand through a solver and I don't really know what to make of it . Probably not the most useful post I've ever made, but I thought it was a surprising solve so here we go. Disclaimer though that copy-pasting this strategy is probably sub-optimal. On the flop it bets range, and then on any spade that brings 4 to the straight (As, Ts, 9s, 8s) it checks range. My guess is, because the OOP player c-bets range and the IP player is folding somewhere between 50% and 65% depending on bet-sizing, the IP is left with such a range advantage that we can't realistically bet a polarised range and should just try to check-raise polar and bluff catch a ton.

Not all that useful really because I suspect against most microstakes players you can still bet for thin value on the turn, though it's worthwhile to note that Td9d are pure calls both on the turn and river so the equilibrium strategy is to "bluffcatch" with the straight here. If we remove all pure bluffs from villains range the calling frequency drops a lot (in fact it only continues with the royal flush) and T9 is a pure fold so against nits and passive players in general, making an exploitative fold on the river doesn't seem the worst.

Interesting analysis. What range did you give the open limp calling MP player for the solver?

 

[Beanfacekilla]

villain just sat down this was his 1st or 2nd hand. On the flop I bet half pot, maybe I should have gone 2/3pot.. I am looking to get value from any spade draw, any two-pair, any K or Q.

On the turn I bet again because I think even though he can have flushes I think he can also have a bunch of two pairs, AT, etc.. if he is a fishy player he can be playing a bunch of off-suited combos. When villain raises me I'm not happy but I don't think I can fold yet especially given his small raise sizing. The river doesn't change much and he bets again.. I am putting him on a fairly wide range still because he's 2nl player in this spot and think he can still have a variety of two-pairs, and I think he could be playing this way with a Tx aswell. what do you think?


PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $0.93 (47 bb)
MP: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $1.53 (77 bb)
BU: $2.11 (106 bb)
SB: $1.93 (97 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.24 (112 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.05) Hero is BB with 9♦ T♦
1 fold, MP checks, 2 players fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.10, MP calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.22) Q♣ K♠ J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.46) A♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.29, MP raises to $0.58, Hero calls $0.29

River: ($1.62) 2♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.78, Hero...?

On the flop, we have a hand that can't improve. There is value to be had, but if the flush comes in we pretty much done here.

Bet the flop larger. The reason we do this is to target many hands we beat, 2p, pair+SD, and flush draws. This is a board where if our opponent connects, they'll call pot size bets probably.

Bet flop 75%-100% pot against an unknown IMO. If we had info they were a call station, maybe more.

On the turn, bet 2/3 pot +/- IMO, and it is a bet fold spot. We are targeting 2p that might have been passive, and pair+SD or even pair with redraw, I don't think a hand like AJo with a spade is out of the question here.

But when we get raised on this turn, I personally would snap fold. We can't improve anymore and I'm not comfortable calling a river bet unless I have info the opponent will value own themselves.

As played, I would fold the river and cut my losses, seems like value town from V here. Once again, if they don't have the flush, wouldn't they be worried you had it? I don't think players at these stakes value bet thin enough.

I would play super exploitative in games at these stakes and I would think a solver would be unnecessary to figure this out. They don't bluff often enough. Look at the evidence, MP post BB, check option. Then flat call flop, raise turn when front door flush comes in. Passive opponents do this all the time. If they raise, they have what they reppin.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I would probably just take a free flop with T9s and keep my isolation raises more for value, when I am monkey in the middle as here. I am not shocked, the poster called you, and when he does, you are just bloating the pot out of position with a hand, that dont have that much equity.

Flop
Great flop of course and standard bet for value.

Turn
This is a really narly turn card, not only because it brings in the flush, but also because it counterfeited your hand. Because of the counterfeit you are now chopping with any TX, and it also kills your action, when you are still ahead. So I prefer to check-call this turn and then also check-call any river, thats not another spade.

You do bet though and face the good old min-raise on the turn. This just scream value, and unless he is a complete moron, that value is not another T on this board. And even if it is, you are only calling for a chopper. You also have no chance to improve, so if you are behind, you are drawing dead.

I honestly dont know, what to do here, and I really think, the main thing is to check, so that you dont allow the chance for this to happen. I have seen it in other of your hands also, that you are betting to often out of position with medium strong hands. Just check instead and allow the opponent to hang himself, or take a free card and get one step closer to showdown.

River
At least the river did not bring a 4-flush, but he bet around half pot again, and here we are. You need to be good 1 in 4 times to make the call or alternatively be chopping 1 in 2 times. You say, you think, he is still betting two pair, and I think, that is totally delusional. 2 pair should strongly consider folding the turn and certainly not raise. So you are basically calling for a chopper or to catch him bluffing.

I think, its a close spot, and when a spot is close, its not crazy to look a bit at blockers and let that decide. Here you obviously want to hold a spade to block at least a few of his flush combos, and since you dont, you should lean towards a fold with this combo and then call with for instance AT with T of spades. He posted, which mean, he is a fish, so its totally standard for him to show up here with some suited junk like Q4 of spades or 95 of spades.

Conclusion
I am kind of indifferent to, what we do after getting raised on the turn. For me the main point is to check the turn, and if we did that, we can comfortably call him down, unless he starts overbetting or something like that. I also prefer taking a free flop, but its not like, raising was a big mistake or anything.

 

[Casey55]

Preflop
I would probably just take a free flop with T9s and keep my isolation raises more for value, when I am monkey in the middle as here. I am not shocked, the poster called you, and when he does, you are just bloating the pot out of position with a hand, that dont have that much equity.

Flop
Great flop of course and standard bet for value.

Turn
This is a really narly turn card, not only because it brings in the flush, but also because it counterfeited your hand. Because of the counterfeit you are now chopping with any TX, and it also kills your action, when you are still ahead. So I prefer to check-call this turn and then also check-call any river, thats not another spade.

You do bet though and face the good old min-raise on the turn. This just scream value, and unless he is a complete moron, that value is not another T on this board. And even if it is, you are only calling for a chopper. You also have no chance to improve, so if you are behind, you are drawing dead.

I honestly dont know, what to do here, and I really think, the main thing is to check, so that you dont allow the chance for this to happen. I have seen it in other of your hands also, that you are betting to often out of position with medium strong hands. Just check instead and allow the opponent to hang himself, or take a free card and get one step closer to showdown.

River
At least the river did not bring a 4-flush, but he bet around half pot again, and here we are. You need to be good 1 in 4 times to make the call or alternatively be chopping 1 in 2 times. You say, you think, he is still betting two pair, and I think, that is totally delusional. 2 pair should strongly consider folding the turn and certainly not raise. So you are basically calling for a chopper or to catch him bluffing.

I think, its a close spot, and when a spot is close, its not crazy to look a bit at blockers and let that decide. Here you obviously want to hold a spade to block at least a few of his flush combos, and since you dont, you should lean towards a fold with this combo and then call with for instance AT with T of spades. He posted, which mean, he is a fish, so its totally standard for him to show up here with some suited junk like Q4 of spades or 95 of spades.

Conclusion
I am kind of indifferent to, what we do after getting raised on the turn. For me the main point is to check the turn, and if we did that, we can comfortably call him down, unless he starts overbetting or something like that. I also prefer taking a free flop, but its not like, raising was a big mistake or anything.

Thanks for the good analysis. I agree your points about checking turn but I did think V could have worse at 2nl that may continue. I wouldn’t go as far to say its totally dellusional that he has 2 pair etc , the V showed up with Ac-9s. Its circus show at 2nl, they don’t find the fold good players find all that often and V has posted to show he can be bad player. I do think checking turn is probrably better, thanks for analysis

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the good analysis. I agree your points about checking turn but I did think V could have worse at 2nl that may continue. I wouldn’t go as far to say its totally dellusional that he has 2 pair etc , the V showed up with Ac-9s.

Ac-9s is a bluff on this board, and of course we are not shocked, that someone might be bluffing. Even recreational players bluff, and Ac-9s is not a totally crazy hand to turn into a bluff in this situation. He improved to top pair on the turn, but with 4 cards to a straight and 3 to a flush, thats really not something, he can continue to call with, and while he picked up a bad flushdraw, his gutshot draw got counterfeited.

So him showing Ac-9s only prove, that he has the ability to raise the turn as a bluff. And for sure that make it better to call him down, but it does not change the fact, your hand was a bluff catcher. With two pair he would likely just have continued to call you on the turn, and then maybe also call again on the river.

So you might have a point, that you can bet light for value at 2NL, because people are so bad at folding nominally strong hands like two pair even on a board like this. But often it then needs to be a bet-fold, because they are not raising as a bluff very often. The issue with bet-folding here is, that he could be raising the same hand for value. And thats why I would personally go for a check-call. If he checks behind, thats totally fine, then I can go for another street of value on the river, unless it 4-flushes or pair the board.