This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Flopped set against a flop shove within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; V stats: 49/4/1.3 (85 hands)
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker
UTG: $2.18 (109 bb)
CO: $2.62 (131 bb)
BU (Hero): $3.57
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with T♣ T♥ 1 fold, CO raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, SB calls $0.05, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.20) T♠ 8♠ 6♣ (3 players)
SB bets $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.32, SB raises to $2.28 (all-in), CO folds, Hero calls $1.96
What do we think about his range here? is getting it in ever a mistake here? on flopzilla, against a range of sets and 97s we have 70% equity. Is this line always 97s? if its only straights then we have 33% equity and we would need 40% to call.
Pre flop I think 3 betting is better but I dont hate calling here especially if the blinds are not over agressive and wont be squeezing a lot. I know a lot of people hate calling in this spot and will be screaming that you should 3 bet. I dont hate either but I will agree with them 3 betting is better.
When it comes to the flop, good decision by you to raise although with a bet and a call I think your raise should be a little larger but that is nitpicking a little bit. As far as your question goes, its going to sound bad but with top set and the bet being already all in I wouldnt even think nor care what their range is here I would never consider folding. Even if they do have 97 (and its nowhere near always that they have 97 here) we still have a re draw to a boat. This is an easy call without even thinking about it and I will use a term I stole from Bigdog pocket 5's... I would break my arm here getting my chips in after this jam, it would be an insta-call.
Someone playing almost half the deck can definitely have all 16 combos of 97. But even against 97 you have 35% equity, and you only need 40% to break even. So if you add in just a few combos of anything else, you are doing just fine here. We cant really say, that just because a 2NL fish jam it in on the flop, then he MUST have the nuts. So as HP300GOD say, we beat him into the pot and prepare ourselfes to ride the variance train
If Phil Hellmuth check/jams 200 BB in that spot, maybe, just maybe I can find a fold the way Doug Polk did...
And even then probably not, since we are almost priced in to call with top set, even if he showed us a straight. In the Polk vs. Helmuth hand Polk had the low end of the straight, so if Helmuth had the high end, as in fact he did, Polk would be drawing completely dead.