$2 NLHE 6-max: -EV to call a turn bet with an open ender?

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.90 (95 bb)
MP: $4.02 (201 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.47 (124 bb)
SB: $1.04 (52 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 7♥ 8♥
3 players fold, BTN raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 3♦ 9♥ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09

Turn: ($0.31) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.21, Hero calls $0.21

River: ($0.73) Q♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks


Villain Stats: 33/17 (6 hands)


From a pot odds perspective I would have to win an additional ~30bb on the river when I make a straight in order for this call to be +EV. Would you guys call here against an unknown?

 

[liuouhgkres]

You need 28% equity on the turn, considering villain can have so many bluffs on the turn you definitely have that equity, plus implied odds. You can't fold the turn. However, I think you should often check-raise that flop, because you can have multiple sets on the flop.

 

[Hermus]

The flop and turn more or less miss villains range so you won't get called much, meaning implied odds for hitting are lower. Additionally, in the scenario where you hit, there are four to the straight. This further lowers the odds of getting called by worse. There are some other reasons why you might want to continue with this hand though.

87s has some good equity on this flop and is supposed to be one of your weakest holdings to take to showdown if you miss, making it a good option to play aggressively. I would've check-raised the flop and expect a fold the majority of the time.

The 7 on the turn is pretty awkward because you get some showdown value and some additional outs if you're behind. I like your call here in favour of check-raising because you have better value hands and better bluff combo's in your range. For reference, if you're drawing to two-pair + for the win you have 30% equity. If you hit that's great. If you miss you still have some showdown value.

 

[gustav197poker]

Focusing the action on the turn, we can now check-raise. Basically we bet on a wide range of BTN. In these places, min raise allows you to obtain fold equity in V. But if he 3-bets, we must fold on the turn. Regarding the possibility of calling the turn, we do not have the best way to do it and therefore this play is maginal or EV not positive for the long term. If there is any particular reading of this BTN. For example range flexibility on turn / river, we can justify a call on turn. But we should have that additional information to play like this.
Greetings.

 

[QA77]

I would call here. There’s a chance that you’re ahead with the pair of 7 plus additional outs if you’re not (unless he has a set). If opponent bets river, its a tougher spot.

 

[Sidetracked]

You're about a 4:1 underdog to make your straight on the river. As long as your express odds plus your implied odds (implied odds are a huge factor in NL and PL poker) will give you that price, then calling is EV +.

You do also have a pair of 7s, so there's a good chance that another 7 will give you the best hand.

 

[gustav197poker]

I agree in call the turn most of the time when we are faced with a closer range position. For example UTG or MP. In this case we are faced with a BTN that makes large bet sizes on flop and turn. In general you will not face a linear range here. The V can have a lot of hands that beat you, as his range should be super wide in BTN. Unless we know that this villain has low flexibility of range, my humble suggestion is to fold a greater number of times OTT, given the sequence of big bets made by BTN. It is preferable to call up to half a pot on the turn in a situation like this (wider ranges).

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend.

Flop
Calling is certainly +EV, but I think, this is a perfect hand to check-raise and start to apply some real pressure. You have no showdown value but a bunch of equity, even with a BDFD to go along with your OESD. He is probably C-betting a lot of A high, K high etc, and if you can get those hands to fold right now, thats a great result for you.

Turn
You paired up, and for that reason your hand is now a clear check-call. You beat his bluffs now, and his range is also stronger, when he fire again for this size, so your hand is now to in between to raise. Its still way to strong to fold though, so calling is the only option.

River
Now you probably have a check-fold, unless he bet really small, but luckily he checked back.

Results
I sense, you probably lost this hand, and if he had something like JJ or A9, thats totally fine. You got to the river and realised all your equity, but you just ended up with the worst of it this time. The only thing to take away from this is to at least consider check-raising the flop another time, especially against people who C-bet to much.

 

[Casey55]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.90 (95 bb)
MP: $4.02 (201 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.47 (124 bb)
SB: $1.04 (52 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 7♥ 8♥
3 players fold, BTN raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 3♦ 9♥ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09

Turn: ($0.31) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.21, Hero calls $0.21

River: ($0.73) Q♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks


Villain Stats: 33/17 (6 hands)


From a pot odds perspective I would have to win an additional ~30bb on the river when I make a straight in order for this call to be +EV. Would you guys call here against an unknown?

You need to make 30bb on the river to break even for the straight draw. You have outs for your hole cards, if you hit a 7 or 8 you could also jump ahead of villains overpairs and top pair.. versus villains range of overpairs and top pair we have 5 additional outs, meaning we need pot odds of 3:1 we are getting 2.5.


The other thing is though is how obvious ourhand will be, if we make our straight on the river there will be a one liner and we are OOP , how will we get paid? We lead and hope to get called? Or we check and risk a check back? Seems like a hard spot to get value