$2 NLHE 6-max: Doubts about extract value on Turn when Flops Khigh Flush!

[Phoenix2223]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.56 (128 bb)
MP: $0.68 (34 bb)
CO: $0.97 (49 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.03 (102 bb)
SB: $4.11 (206 bb)
BB: $1.69 (85 bb)(VPIP: 20 , PFR: 18, 3B Pre: 8, Fold to F CB: 25, Hands: 480)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with K♣ 7♣
2 players fold, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, BB calls $0.06, CO calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.25) 3♣ Q♣ 5♣ (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.16, BB calls $0.16, CO folds

Turn: ($0.57) K♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.42, BB raises to $0.84, Hero ???

I'm not sure about this assumption, but I think with these 3Bet Pre Stats he may be capable to make 3Bet Bluff with A5s-A2s,J8s,T8s, J7s, this kind of stuff. So that Call Pre leaves him with a few worse made Flushs.
1: Do you disagree with my assumptions about his range?
2: Do you think he can Raise me with worse hands than my Khigh Flush, like Tc9c, JcTc, 33 or 55?
3: What is the best line here, Call this Raise/Call Shove River or 3Bet Shove(or maybe other options if you disagree with my CBet on that Turn)?

 

[TenJack]

I think we still can put A2s, A4s in his range. Blocked are A3s, A5s, A7s, AQs, AKs. That means that he can have 7 AcXc combos to beat us.

Q2: Yes he can do this with worse flushes. He has a ton of combos, epecially stuff like 6c4c with the made flush and the str8flush draw.

As for what to do here, he has about 60c left behind. The money is going to get in on the river pretty much any way you play this. Reasons to 3-bet shove this are his Acxx combos that are being weird here with the c-raise. If he has Acxx we would be best to gii here, we have 75% and he has to call pretty much, and pays us if the river blanks.

I think we are mostly going to be dealing with flushes here, because it would be silly to c-raise hands like K5 or 33 on this turn. I am going to 3-bet shove this because his flushes are probably going to call and be drawing dead, and we don't have to worry about another club on the river that both kills our action and puts us in a bad spot if villain jams.

 

[c9h13no3]

Less than 100 big blinds, just cram it in. A club on the river beats you or kills your action, and there are still many worse hands you beat. And villain doesn't have enough money left to keep bluffing.

Also, I bet your opponent has a lot of air in his range. 25% fold to cbet is insanely low. He's going to be continuing with all sorts of air type hands. What's his aggression frequency?

 

[Phoenix2223]

What's his aggression frequency?

AggroFrequency = 49 , AF = 4. He is way more aggro than most Regs.

 

[micromoi]

u did raise with K7s the best u asking for is the flush going from there as soon as u hits it u need to go hard for value u r beating by the A high flush only. i really dont see vilain doing that with the nuts he would drag u to the river and raise u there. for me it's an easy re pop on the turn, and i would call his allin if he does so.

 

[Hujiko]

BB flat calls your raise with an in between limper

1) Range
His 3 Bet Pre Stats do not make him aggressive AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs => 8%. His stats show that hes a very tight (NIT) player on 6 MAX that might be capable of making a play now and then but he is not bluff heavy. On the contrary hes value oriented.
So as he did not 3 Bet hes not likely to have the 8% range of hands and indeed probably e.g. not A5s. Hes not likely to three bet A3s and/or A2s but might 3 Bet A4s in my opinion. He will almost certainly would not three bet nor call with middling suited two gappers like T7, J8s preflop (there is also a person still behind him to act). The small VIP/PFR makes that he does not often call anyways preflop but likes to be the raiser preflop.
2)
Yes he can but I would exclude 33 and 55 almost completely after the check raise on the turn he might even fold 33 and 55 pre-flop as hes not closing the action pre-flop and also he might check raise on the flop also. So it is getting unlikely that he has 55 or 33.
For similar reasons I think it is unlikely that he has suited gappers in his range that he called with pre-flop and did not check raise on the flop.
So after the flop I think his hands primarily exist of
JT, T9 and 98 suited clubs AJ, AT, A9, A8, A6 suited clubs and AK/AQo/AJo with the A of clubs in it.
3)
Would not make an almost pot sized bet on the turn would just bet 1/2 pot as to keep more of the range of the villain in.
As played I would hate the situation but would not fold the second nuts. What of his range would make this play? club suited Ax probably; club suited JT, TJ, 98 maybe; AcX not likely as Ak and AQ have showdown value and a bluff makes less sense.

Oh and don't be fooled by his low cbet folding range he only calls preflop (VIP-PFR is 2%) so hes mostly the aggressor preflop.

 

[777alex777]

it's a good hand for all in on the pot odds