$2 NLHE 6-max: BTN vs Blinds, Wet board

[Casey55]

I decide to check turn because we have marginal pair for showdown value, I think I could have bet here with the draws and gotten value from a-lot of 8x, 7x and other draws and still be ahead of BB's range more than 50% of the time assuming he's playing as wide as he probably should be with SB flatting. On the river though its interesting because if villain had some nut hands on the turn he may have wanted to check-raise but since I check behind OTR I am thinking I cannot exclude some straights and good hands that made their way to the river. I do think V could be over-valuing a Qx here or maybe a hand like QT. What do you think?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.04 (102 bb)
MP: $2.39 (120 bb)
CO: $2.67 (134 bb)
BU (Hero): $3.97 (199 bb)
SB: $5.97 (299 bb)
BB: $2.04 (102 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 9♠ J♠
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.05, SB calls $0.04, BB calls $0.03

Flop: ($0.15) T♠ Q♣ 7♠ (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.07, SB folds, BB calls $0.07

Turn: ($0.29) 9♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.29) 9♥ (2 players)
BB bets $0.21, Hero ...?

 

[300HPGOD]

I would 3x pre instead of 2.5x. I think raising is fine on the button unless you have aggressive players to your left. If so, they will 3 bet you and puts you (even in position) in a tough spot since you are closer to the bottom of your pre flop raising range here.

On the flop, I like the bet and the sizing is fine imo. I would not go any smaller than 7 cents but I personally wouldnt exceed 9 cents so the play is good to me.

The turn I can see either way and depends on villains. We have a hand that has so many outs so we dont mind getting raised here (unless it is huge) but at the same time we have only a pair of 9s and have nothing to protect with all the outs so checking behind is perfectly fine. We arent getting Qx to fold but we would get much greater value when we do hit the river if we bet on the turn. Thats why I say either way can be justified but in game I would probably check as you did.

River is interesting of course with the trips happening. I dont think K9 and A9 plays the hand as villain has unless they have A of spades. I think your chances of being outkicked here are low so I am not folding. The decision of course is to raise or not. I am not sure how many if any one pair hands call a raise by us here or that lead the river here as most would check call. I prefer just calling here as this smells like a bluff (I am putting Jx in the bluff category) and I dont think many hands that arent a straight or better call a raise from us. So I just call here unless we know villain could bluff raise here... in other words I would not raise here without knowing before I raise that I am calling whatever villain would do.

 

[Hermus]

I like the turn check for pot control and to keep villain's bluffs in. With flush, straight, trips, and two-pair outs we have some sizable equity against villain's paired range.

On the river you get called by some two pair combo's maybe even Qx, and boats seem very unlikely both flush draws missed and you block the main straight. Probably raise for value and fold to a re-raise.

 

[Hermus]

I would 3x pre instead of 2.5x. I think raising is fine on the button unless you have aggressive players to your left. If so, they will 3 bet you and puts you (even in position) in a tough spot since you are closer to the bottom of your pre flop raising range here.

Snap folding isn't really a tough spot though is it? Opening J9s on the button is just profitable simple as that. It isn't even that far down in our range so against villain's that 3-bet bluff too much (which is admittedly very rare) we can even peel. Against villains that over-fold opening any 2 from the BU is just autoprofit and facing the occasional 3-bet we can just fold (opening literally any 2 is of course super exploitable but it's just to illustrate that even the weaker holdings in our open strategy make money in that situation).

 

[KKillerss]

If the villain had KJ or 9-10, might he had played this way out of position?

Id have called.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open and as long as you dont vary your sizing depending on hand strenght 2,5BB and 3,0BB are both totally fine for this limit.

Flop
You flopped a monster draw, so a C-bet here is actually for value, since you can get called by a lot of hands, that are behind in equity. You still dont mind to get folds though, so I would probably pick a larger sizing like 10c rather than 7c. This also build the pot and allow you to bet larger, if you make a straight or flush.

Turn
You improved to third pair, but with only one more card to come you are no longer an equity favourite against better made hands, and they are also unlikely to fold. So I dont think, betting here accomplish much, and I am totally on board with checking back.

River
All your draws missed, but you accidentally backed into trips, and now he leads out for a fairly large size. I think, we are obviously not folding here, since he could easily be doing this with a worse hand like top pair for value. But the question is, can we actually raise here for value?

Against this sizing my real time decision would most likely be to just call. It protects me from potentially getting 3-bet and have to make some really gross decision (most likely fold), and I dont think, it leaves a lot of money on the table if any. But lets go about it in a more math based way and count the combos, we think, he will get to the river with this way, lead out for a large sizing AND then also call our raise.

Combos we lose to: KJ (12), K9 (4), Q9 (3), T9 (3), 97 (3) = 23
Combos we can get value from: 98 (4), AQ (12), KQ (12), QJ (9) = 37

I did not include QQ, TT, 77, QT, because I think, we would have heard from those hands on the flop. I also did not inlude J8. This is because, I think, J8 is sometimes folded on the flop, and I also think, he would sometimes lead the turn, if he made a straight. So by counting all 12 combos of KJ I have kind of taken into consideration, he might sometimes have J8 as well. Finally I did not include A9, because I think, its folded on the flop, except for A9 of spades, which he cant have, because we have 9 of spades in our hand.

So all in all this is probably a fine spot to go for a thin value raise, if we think, he is taking top pair for this sizing on the river, and that he wont be able to bet-fold it. It all depends on, what kind of range we assign him of course, so slightly altering the assumptions, I made above, can make it a just call spot. In for instance we think, he cant have AQ, because that would have been 3-bet pre, now we are already much closer to not making any money by raising.

 

[lcartaxo]

The decision is call or raise, since we are not folding trips.

And I call here all day long. If we raise and villain is bluffing he will bet-fold. Even if he has Top Pair. Hero would be called just loosing.