$2 NLHE 6-max: Big draw on paired board facing turn shove

[RVladimiro]

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $1.98
SB: $5.27
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.42
MP: $2.00
CO: $0.74

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has Q:heart: J:heart:

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.02, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.10, fold

Flop: ($0.26, 2 players) 6:heart: 6:spade: T:heart:
Hero bets $0.20, BTN calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.66, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.66 and is all-in, Hero???

Perfect table: two tight players on my left, two very loose and passive fish on my right. The villain in this hand is 59/10 is one of them and either folds or chases anything. When pressured he shoves FDs, gutshots, midpairs, anything really. The sample is small (59 hands) but he played so many hands that I got a lot of info.

After he called the cbet I had him on a very wide range. Any pair below JJ any T, any 6 and draws.

EDIT: My plan was simply to build the pot, if he didn't fold and I didn't have a hand on the river, I'd check/fold.

The turn shove tilted me a bit. I was doomed against boats but so ahead of all the rest. If I was in this situation in the flop, it would be an easy call against his range assuming he has a pair or he is drawing. I have overcards, OESD, FD.

Baluga Theorem crossed my mind, but not with this guy, he shoves with way worse than TPTK.

And I getting the right odds here or is it spewy to call it here?

 

[acky100]

You're getting around 2.5:1 so you need to be good just under 30% of the time to break even by calling.

If villain will do stuff like this with FD's, gutshots, stuff like top pair like you say then i think its a definite call. We need to win say 30% of the time, i can find atleast 15 outs = 30% which we can catch on the river to win the hand, 9 flushes and 6 straight outs = 15. So its a call, this is not to mention that we have like 6 outs to top pair hands which may also be good! So nh.

 

[TylerN]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,432 games 0.005 secs 686,400 games/sec

Board: 6h 6s Th 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.424% 67.42% 00.00% 2314 0.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, ATs, Ah9h, A6s, KTs, Q6s, 9h8h, 8h7h, 86s, 76s, 65s, ATo, A6o, KTo, Q6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 32.576% 32.58% 00.00% 1118 0.00 { QhJh }


add in sd's and are equity increases and we need to be good around 28%

edit: i did forget adding fd's but because Qh Jh Th are blocked theres not many i dont think

 

[RVladimiro]

You're getting around 2.5:1 so you need to be good just under 30% of the time to break even by calling.

If villain will do stuff like this with FD's, gutshots, stuff like top pair like you say then i think its a definite call. We need to win say 30% of the time, i can find atleast 15 outs = 30% which we can catch on the river to win the hand, 9 flushes and 6 straight outs = 15. So its a call, this is not to mention that we have like 6 outs to top pair hands which may also be good! So nh.

The thing that really made me start this thread was how were my reads influencing negatively my decision. I admit I was expecting someone to tell me here "dude that's a clear fold" or "with that paired flop and that turn aggression it's a fold any day". Not that I think a villain like this adapts to the opponent, they always play the same.

I don't think it is an easy fold but I maybe wrong.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,432 games 0.005 secs 686,400 games/sec

Board: 6h 6s Th 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.424% 67.42% 00.00% 2314 0.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, ATs, Ah9h, A6s, KTs, Q6s, 9h8h, 8h7h, 86s, 76s, 65s, ATo, A6o, KTo, Q6o, 86o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 1: 32.576% 32.58% 00.00% 1118 0.00 { QhJh }


add in sd's and are equity increases and we need to be good around 28%

edit: i did forget adding fd's but because Qh Jh Th are blocked theres not many i dont think

I ran on PS and went over all the work of choosing the right suit for the suited hands that beat me. I also removed AQo+ and QQ-JJ because I'm pretty sure that's in his opening range.

Results are about 50/50. So 30% cost for a flip, not bad I guess. The question is: in real time is my read enough to give him this range and make the call or is it too close to call?

 

[bgomez89]

i think its a call for me

 

[RVladimiro]

I called. Villain showed... JTo!

 

[baudib1]

In general, don't fold FD/SDs especially after you give yourself odds to call it off.

 

[Gunner57]

You are priced in so it is a call as played.

I am not 100% sure if I like the 5x pre-raise on BB against passive fish with JQ suited. If this is the perfect table you can find better situations than this. However I dont think is bad play or anything.


I like the flop bet.

Turn is ok to bet out as well. Just remember that you have to make the decision on the turn if you are willing to play for all of your chips before you bet the turn.

If you bet .30 on turn instead of .50 it might be a fold, or you could just shove on turn and might increase fold equity....(since you want to go all in by turn anyway). From what it looks like you kind of backed yourself into a corner to call the all in raise. However, that also could have been your plan.