$2 NLHE 6-max: AQ facing a shove on suited flop.

[thomasguy3419]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Button ($0.80)
Hero (SB) ($2.28)
BB ($2.48)
UTG ($2.13)
MP ($2)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

, Q

3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BB raises to $0.18, Hero raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.22

Flop: ($0.80) 9

, 6

, A

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.51, BB raises to $2.08 (All-In)

Total pot: $1.82

Results below:

Spoiler

Hero didn't show A

, Q

.
BB didn't show

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Do we know anything about the villain?

Even in a battle between the blinds, after calling a 4-bet a typical player's range is usually premium hands only at this buy-in. AA or AK are very likely. Unless the villain is a known maniac, I fold.

 

[thomasguy3419]

I don't use a HUD

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I don't use a HUD

Ok, but have you had enough hands against him to know if he is very aggressive? I'd need a really good read on the villain to call here.

 

[braveslice]

I would fold too without any reads. I would call with AhQd, and with AK I would strongly consider. That said, I doubt calling is a big deal given pot odds. You need to win about 25%

Your 3bet out of position is too small, he will call every single hand he raised with including all suited cards and Ax. When you 4bet you are trying to get stacks in, so if you are not sure better just call his 3bet, AQ is strong enough to call and too strong to bluff if you don’t like to play for stacks. imo of course.

 

[thomasguy3419]

I did make the call. They showed AK and I lost. I probably should have folded preflop to the 3bet. The reason I 4bet was because I don't like flatting 3bets out of position.
After that I went to a different table. I got dealt AJs, flopped a flush and doubled up. Then I got dealt AK right after and went up to $7 so I made more than my money back.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

I did make the call. They showed AK and I lost. I probably should have folded preflop to the 3bet. The reason I 4bet was because I don't like flatting 3bets out of position.
After that I went to a different table. I got dealt AJs, flopped a flush and doubled up. Then I got dealt AK right after and went up to $7 so I made more than my money back.

I liked the 4-bet, people do 3-bet light from the BB.

Bet on the flop was fine too, just didn't like calling the raise. Glad you rebounded.

 

[thomasguy3419]

Would you recommend calling in this situation with AK even with the suited flop?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Yes, I'd say AK is his most likely hand, and odds are strongly against him beating you with a flush.

Players are dealt suited hands only 32% of the time, and of course out of that 32% the chance that a suited hand will be diamonds is only one in four.

It's unlikely that he has even one diamond in his hand. But even if he has one diamond, then there are 9 diamonds unaccounted for (because one is in his hand and 3 are on the board). By the "rule of four" his chance of getting the flush by the river is only 9*4 = 36%

 

[c9h13no3]

Bet on the flop was fine too, just didn't like calling the raise

We've got $1.37 behind a $3.39 pot. Getting 2.5:1 with an SPR of 2.4:1 on the flop, we need to get this in.

You have two options for the hand:

1) Fold to the 3-bet.
2) Stack off, and shrug this off as a cooler (which AQ vs. AK blind vs. blind kinda is).

I'm kinda leaning towards option #1. If we had reads that he had a wide 3-bet range, we could talk ourselves into stacking. But against an average 2NL player, they're not doing this with a wide range of bluffs.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

c9h and braveslice make valid points about the pre-flop action. I've changed my mind about that pre-flop 4-bet.

As played, on the flop, getting 2.5:1, we need 29% equity to call ( ~25%, as braveslice says). I don't think we have it.

What is the villain's range?
At the flop, if we define villain's range after he calls the 4-bet as [JJ+, AK+], hero and villain both have about 49% equity. (One could argue that AQ should be in that range, and that would make a big difference).

But after the shove on the flop, villain's range is down to pretty much AA and AK, with the occasional irrational action thrown in. Villain has only 9% equity against [AA,AK]

We've got $1.37 behind a $3.39 pot. Getting 2.5:1 with an SPR of 2.4:1 on the flop, we need to get this in.

c9h, I'm not sure how the SPR (Stack-to-Pot ratio) factors into this flop decision?

I understand the general idea that you create low SPRs with hands that are likely to make top pair / good kicker, in part to make decisions easy on the flop and turn.
If you make your hand, try to get the whole effective stack in.
And here we are on the flop with top pair / good kicker, so we got what we were hoping for . . .

But I think the villain's all-in changes things by narrowing his range. In the end the hero either has the equity to make the call, or he doesn't? It's cash, so he's not going to be left with a crippled stack, he just reloads.
Maybe I am missing something here.

 

[braveslice]

We've got $1.37 behind a $3.39 pot. Getting 2.5:1 with an SPR of 2.4:1 on the flop, we need to get this in.

You have two options for the hand:

1) Fold to the 3-bet.
2) Stack off, and shrug this off as a cooler (which AQ vs. AK blind vs. blind kinda is).

From the Poker in a box: Starting Hand Strategy for MicroStakes by Mike Gano,
SB call 3bet range is given as: {TT-88, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+} 8.6%

When we talk about AQ that is top of the range he has in his range. Now I could understand when we start to talk about lesser hands like ATo that it might be too loose in micros, but if AQ is wrong then the whole guide is wrong.

Which is quite possible =)

Out of position can’t be sole reason not to play post flop, especially when the ranges are the widest. We don’t even think EP, MP that: Here we go again, playing JTs out of position.

c9h, I'm not sure how the SPR (Stack-to-Pot ratio) factors into this flop decision?

imo You got it right, but SPR could be seen as multi street pot odds, from flop to showdown, same thing. There are group of rule of thumbs made around it, which I know nothing.

 

[c9h13no3]

That range for calling a 3bet from the SB is insane. I'm not sure what mental gymnastics are required to think calling 88, AT, KJ out of position is profitable. Especially when 2NL ranges tend to be weak-tight.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

That range for calling a 3bet from the SB is insane. I'm not sure what mental gymnastics are required to think calling 88, AT, KJ out of position is profitable. Especially when 2NL ranges tend to be weak-tight.

I am utterly unqualified to write a poker book, so I should probably keep my mouth closed. But that range seems absurd to me too.

Maybe it is mathematically derived by just looking at equity? Those hands may have sufficient equity to call a minimum 3-bet if we were somehow guaranteed a showdown, but they are not playable.

 

[braveslice]

Well to make things even worse, he has AQo on MP call 3bet range too.

On average 100k hands, 6max zoom BB vs SB has 3betted 7.73% {my approximation: TT+, AQs+, ATs-A5s, K3s, AQo+, A6o} where AQ has 50% equity. But Gano’s ranges in this case are calculated against 10.5% 3ber range.

Things get very complicated fast if hands like AK, AQ, 99 cannot be called out of position. That would leave calling range something like {TT, JJ, QQ} 85% of folds or something, luls. And argument can be made that JJ and QQ can be also stack off hands. Or we need to 4bet range something like close to 7% of our opening range.

What is the proper calling range here in your opinion?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Well to make things even worse, he has AQo on MP call 3bet range too.

On average 100k hands, 6max zoom BB vs SB has 3betted 7.73% {my approximation: TT+, AQs+, ATs-A5s, K3s, AQo+, A6o} where AQ has 50% equity. But Gano’s ranges in this case are calculated against 10.5% 3ber range.

Things get very complicated fast if hands like AK, AQ, 99 cannot be called out of position. That would leave calling range something like {TT, JJ, QQ} 85% of folds or something, luls. And argument can be made that JJ and QQ can be also stack off hands. Or we need to 4bet range something like close to 7% of our opening range.

What is the proper calling range here in your opinion?

I don't think AQ is the problem with Gano's range. It's the junk like JTs and KJo. That may have showdown equity, but you don't flop sets, flushes, and straights too often. If we use that range we are folding to c-bets very often, or calling when behind.

I don't play zoom, don't play pokerstars, and don't play very much cash online. So here's my completely unqualified answer that should be taken seriously by no one:

[99-JJ,AJ,AQ,KQ]

That's only ~4% of hands.

My first instinct is that 4% isn't wide enough, but it has ~44% equity against your approximated 3-bet range in this game of [TT+, AQs+, ATs-A5s, K3s, AQo+, A6o].

So using my suggested calling range the hero who calls the 3-Bet is significantly behind in equity, and out of position. The opponent has the initiative, and many of the hero's hands are often dominated. I know there is significant dead money in the pot, but I can't see a path to profitability with a wider range than that. If anything, maybe it should be narrower.

In reality though my range is heavily dependent on my reads of the opponent.

 

[c9h13no3]

I rarely call 3bets out of position. I usually avoid being exploitable by 4-betting very widely (both as a bluff and stacking off wide).

I maybe could extract a little more value out of monster hands by calling in these spots. But I play stupid laggy, and getting action is rarely a problem. My main issue is everyone plays back at me a lot, calls down wide.

But if you forced me to say what a good call 3bet range is against a player who 3bets a lot as a bluff, I'd say JJ+, AKs, AQs.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Once you do this pre "Hero raises to $0.40" and you hit TP on the flop, the only thing you can't do is fold. Ever.

Fwiw, I don't like 4betting AQ pre. In fact OOP, without any reads or stats, I'd rather fold it, than 4bet it. Might just be me but AQ has ALWAYS been my least profitable hand and it's generally because I've overvalued it.

 

[Rational Madman]

If you had read on him to be LAG both pre and post-flop then you should call here and let him bet into you during the post-flop rounds (since you act before him you have easier time baiting/slowplaying which is one of the only benefits of acting early).

I would call here, raising is asking for trouble.

 

[braveslice]

My personal leak would be getting it in pre with big bets, probably would go to 4bet shove. I can't help it, but seeing that stack size just gets me annoyed. At least would make the hand easy to play post flop :bootyshak Especially here where the 3bet size is standard, that is not so smart in the long run I think, but had he betted some funny size then that can't be too wrong.

 

[braveslice]

[99-JJ,AJ,AQ,KQ]

That's only ~4% of hands.
QUOTE]

I assume you mean KQs and that would make your value 4bet range QQ+, AK. In total that would mean you defend in total 6.64% of value hands, and then some bluffs.

We assume your open range from SB is 35% that would make you defend 18.97% from the range. Open to 3bb, villain 3bet 9bb

EV when villain 3betting 100% and folding post everything: 9bb*0.1897-3bb*0.8103 = -0.7236bb

That is to say you opening from SB and villain 3betting you lose money always. To compensate this given same defense ranges, you need to open 26% from blinds. Alternately keeping 35% opening range you need to add 2.11% bluff range which is actually very reasonable about 1:1 bluff to value ratio.

I did google SB call range against BB 3bet and they are quite wide. Now the thing is that I'm not sure if we need to break even SB vs BB (this might be against game theory) because instead of thinking one hand, we could consider that next time we are BB we have the upper hand. Thus instead of focusing one instance we should maybe average both cases we are BB and SB. In the true honestly given equally skilled players, BB should always win more because he has the position. What we need to do always is to deny auto profit?

 

[AlexTheOwl]

[99-JJ,AJ,AQ,KQ]

That's only ~4% of hands.
QUOTE]

I assume you mean KQs and that would make your value 4bet range QQ+, AK. In total that would mean you defend in total 6.64% of value hands, and then some bluffs.

We assume your open range from SB is 35% that would make you defend 18.97% from the range. Open to 3bb, villain 3bet 9bb

EV when villain 3betting 100% and folding post everything: 9bb*0.1897-3bb*0.8103 = -0.7236bb

That is to say you opening from SB and villain 3betting you lose money always. To compensate this given same defense ranges, you need to open 26% from blinds. Alternately keeping 35% opening range you need to add 2.11% bluff range which is actually very reasonable about 1:1 bluff to value ratio.

I did google SB call range against BB 3bet and they are quite wide. Now the thing is that I'm not sure if we need to break even SB vs BB (this might be against game theory) because instead of thinking one hand, we could consider that next time we are BB we have the upper hand. Thus instead of focusing one instance we should maybe average both cases we are BB and SB. In the true honestly given equally skilled players, BB should always win more because he has the position. What we need to do always is to deny auto profit?

I agree that I lose money always against this theoretical villain. Until I get to know him.

In reality, I don't see many players in the micros playing the 3-4-5 bet game at any level above "have good cards, make big bets" or "betting is fun".
And the "betting is fun" players quickly acquire VPIPs, PFRs, and AFqs that make their approach clear.

The numbers are interesting. But at the level I play, I'm not concerned about denying auto profit.

 

[braveslice]

Eh to be honest, I think my calculation is wrong Nothing new there.

I know what you mean, typically 3bet range in low limits is very tight, so there is no point of having wider defense ranges. But against agro or 'cool tag' why not play more, I would guess you surely already do that.

 

[braveslice]

JJ+, AKs, AQs.

Is this also your calling range from every position when OOP, or is your UTG calling range even tighter?

 

[c9h13no3]

Is this also your calling range from every position when OOP, or is your UTG calling range even tighter?

That calling range is essentially just trapping bluffers. UTG, it's quite rare for people to 3bet as a bluff. So I probably just 4bet or fold in those spots. Might be a leak, but I find playing TT type hands OOP to be RIO nightmares.