$2 NLHE 6-max: Is this a losing play long term?

[Jamalex]

Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

This one hurts a little bit to post. I was trying out playing 6 tables (4 is the most I've done before) and it ended up being too much for me to handle at certain points in the session. During this hand I misclicked and snap called the flop. I may have just folded had I seen the bet size, but we went to the turn anyways.

My main questions are for on this river. Am I only getting called by his Kx of clubs flushes here longterm when I 2x pot jam or does it seem bluffy enough that I can get paid from some other Kx hands as well and worse 8x hands? I personally think I would generate enough folds in this spot to make a bet like this work anyways but I guess my question is should this hand be apart of my value side or should it just primarily be boats/flushes and I should just check call river/bet smaller with it for value instead. I'm just assuming his sets and two pairs would mostly bet turn as well and his 10x/pocket pairs would check back the flop. Also any backdoor clubs he has that are not Kx I think would be betting the turn as well to set up river jams.

BTN: 111.5 BB
Hero (SB): 131.5 BB
BB: 144.5 BB
UTG: 202.5 BB
MP: 112 BB
CO: 101.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ 8♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, BB calls 7 BB, fold

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) 8♦ T♣ K♠
Hero checks, BB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

Turn: (54 BB, 2 players) 6♣
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (54 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero bets 105.5 BB and is all-in, BB calls 105.5 BB

RESULTS ARE BELOW











































Hero shows A♥ 8♥ (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 56%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%)
BB shows J♣ K♣ (Flush, King High)
(Pre 44%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%)
BB wins 252 BB

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I am fine with restealing A8s from SB, and I like your sizing as well.

Flop
You already said, that your call was kind of a misclick / lack of paying attention. Things like that will happen from time to time in online poker, and the important is to just play the rest of the hand well.

Turn
Obviously check and happy he checked back.

River
You improved to trips, but a backdoor flushdraw came in. I like a value bet here, since he will likely check back all his two pair type hands, and if he wanted to bluff with a draw, he would likely have fired again on the turn. I dont like overbetting though. While this might sometimes get hero called by worse, you are also owning yourself, when you run into a flush or a boat. Instead I would bet 50-70% pot and then make a decision, if he raised.

 

[Jamalex]

Preflop
I am fine with restealing A8s from SB, and I like your sizing as well.

Flop
You already said, that your call was kind of a misclick / lack of paying attention. Things like that will happen from time to time in online poker, and the important is to just play the rest of the hand well.

Turn
Obviously check and happy he checked back.

River
You improved to trips, but a backdoor flushdraw came in. I like a value bet here, since he will likely check back all his two pair type hands, and if he wanted to bluff with a draw, he would likely have fired again on the turn. I dont like overbetting though. While this might sometimes get hero called by worse, you are also owning yourself, when you run into a flush or a boat. Instead I would bet 50-70% pot and then make a decision, if he raised.

I agree for sure, I was contemplating doing a bet like that but decided to go for an overbet this time. I'm starting to realize some big mistakes I'm making and I think I need to change some stuff I'm doing for sure.

 

[Sidetracked]

I respect fund's analyses on these forums, and he seems like a very solid, thinking player.

I will diverge from agreeing with him this time, and say that I actually like your over bet shove on the river. While you will occasionally value own yourself vs backdoor flushes and boats, the flushes become less a part of his range as the draw wasn't there on the flop, and I think when the turn goes check/check, he's going to be very curious and look you up far lighter than fund was suggesting.

 

[fundiver199]

I respect fund's analyses on these forums, and he seems like a very solid, thinking player.

I will diverge from agreeing with him this time, and say that I actually like your over bet shove on the river. While you will occasionally value own yourself vs backdoor flushes and boats, the flushes become less a part of his range as the draw wasn't there on the flop, and I think when the turn goes check/check, he's going to be very curious and look you up far lighter than fund was suggesting.

Getting different perspectives on a hand is exactly, what this forum is for

In this situation I dont think, it really matters, that the flushdraw was a backdoor draw. The reason is, Hero check-called the flop, so he did not give Villain an option to fold. Villain bet full pot on the flop when checked to, but he could basically be doing that with any two cards trying to take advantage of Heros apparent weekness.

Villains line of betting full pot on the flop then checking back a largely brick turn is pretty weird, and its probably not a line, a good player would take with any hand. A good player typically also dont cold call a 3-bet preflop. So the only information, I am getting from Villains actions, is, that he is probably not very good.

So I would put him on a pretty wide range going to the river. He probably dont have complete junk like K4 or J8, but apart from that it could be almost anything. This mean, that there are quite a few flush combos, he can have, especially since none of the big flush cards are on the table. Its certainly not only KX of clubs, it could also be any other club combo, that went for a wild bluff on the flop and then luckboxed into a runner-runner.

But that being said the overbet could still be good. It depends on, how wide we think, this guy will be calling. Which with a player like this is very read dependent. And obviously only Hero could have those reads in real time. If he is never folding top pair, then probably the overbet is fine, since all his other AK, KQ, KJ might also play this way, and there are more combos of those hands than flushes.

It is a very exploitable line though, and its certainly more likely to be profitable at 2NL than at any limits higher than that. At 2NL its 2 bucks to call, and many recreational players dont really care about losing that amount of money. But even at 10NL it will be 10 bucks, and then at least some of them will be more likely to make a disciplined laydown. If you spew 10 bucks at a time by calling river overbets with top pair in spots like this, it gets pretty expensive pretty quickly. So those people doing it likely either go broke or move back down to 2NL

 

[Vallet]

A mistake on the flop led you into a trap. You felt the power on the river, but in fact you were always behind. If you made a check on the river, it would be difficult to fold. Many players bet on the turn with a top pair and a flush draw, but this guy is very patient. He did not increase the pot with the top pair on the turn. So he wouldn't have made the call on the river without amplifying. The best way to avoid such situations is to discard the cards in time. Otherwise, the quicksand will swallow you up.

 

[Sidetracked]

And back to agreeing with fund, I do think his cold call of the 3 bet preflop was weak. And following from that, him not being very good makes it more likely he'll call with KQs, KJs (not clubs), and certainly KTs on the river.

 

[John A]

At 2nl you don't really have to worry about having a river over bluffing range imho. This is a part of GTO that just isn't applicable at these stakes because people make too many exploititive mistakes.

That being said, if you bet say 1/2 - 2/3rds on the river, you'll be hard pressed to find the fold button to a jam unless your opponent is ubber tight.

 

[cs_rlewis]

I think if you decide to overbet jam it should be with nutted hands and bluffs with good blockers, such as a full house or the nut flush in this situation.
Doing it with trips on that board is a bit thin in my opinion.