$2 NLHE 6-max: 3-bet pot turn decision with Straight-draw

[Casey55]

On the turn I thought it was close, we could have 10 outs, and we are getting about 2.5 to 1 meaning we need about 28% equity to call, I don't know if the implied odds are there because another straight card villain may shutdown and check on the river, and he only has about 1.30 left, so 3x his turn bet if we call I think we would need to get at least 1 more 44c to justify the call, seemed like a marginal spot so I let it go, do you agree or disagree and why? thanks.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $3.41 (171 bb)
CO (Hero): $3.40 (170 bb)
BU: $1.31 (66 bb)
SB: $2.86 (143 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 9♣ 9♠
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.05, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to $0.18, Hero calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.37) 8♦ K♣ 6♠ (2 players)
BB bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.61) 7♣ (2 players)
BB bets $0.44, CO Hero...?

 

[eetenor]

On the turn I thought it was close, we could have 10 outs, and we are getting about 2.5 to 1 meaning we need about 28% equity to call, I don't know if the implied odds are there because another straight card villain may shutdown and check on the river, and he only has about 1.30 left, so 3x his turn bet if we call I think we would need to get at least 1 more 44c to justify the call, seemed like a marginal spot so I let it go, do you agree or disagree and why? thanks.

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $3.41 (171 bb)
CO (Hero): $3.40 (170 bb)
BU: $1.31 (66 bb)
SB: $2.86 (143 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 9♣ 9♠
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.05, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to $0.18, Hero calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.37) 8♦ K♣ 6♠ (2 players)
BB bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.61) 7♣ (2 players)
BB bets $0.44, CO Hero...?

Thank you for posting

You say they will fold if u make a straight but so few players can fold strong hands which they are representing on the turn. They also have real trouble 3 barrel bluffing as they expect you to call river after the turn.

The V can have AQc and make this turn bet. Then check let you showdown. They can even have QQ and check showdown.

So playing a standard V who has bluffs- but only 2 streets-all the way to the river is +EV in spots.
If this V has no bluffs in this spot then it is a fold on the flop as we were hoping they had a range of AA KK QQ JJ TT---55 AK AQ KQ -----99 folds a dry Kxx flop vs that range.

Hope this helps

 

[Casey55]

Thank you for posting

You say they will fold if u make a straight but so few players can fold strong hands which they are representing on the turn. They also have real trouble 3 barrel bluffing as they expect you to call river after the turn.

The V can have AQc and make this turn bet. Then check let you showdown. They can even have QQ and check showdown.

So playing a standard V who has bluffs- but only 2 streets-all the way to the river is +EV in spots.
If this V has no bluffs in this spot then it is a fold on the flop as we were hoping they had a range of AA KK QQ JJ TT---55 AK AQ KQ -----99 folds a dry Kxx flop vs that range.

Hope this helps

thank you for the reply. A-lot of players flop c-bet their whole range on the flop but play more honestly on the turn, thats why I think its fine to call the flop, I think you have a fair point about them not being able to fold their strong hands when another straight card comes on the river, if that is the case I think we can profitably call then because will have the correct pot odds on the turn if we include our implied odds IP on the river.

 

[Nigginger]

If you don't have any specific reads on this opponent I also would have made the call, because as 'eetenor' said i don't think a lot of people could fold their strong hands on the river and I see him stacking of on the river with most of his hands.

If he 3bet bluffs them pre he could also have some hands like 7c5c, 6c5c, 8c5c etc. which he probably doesn't tripple barrel if he misses. So you get to showdown.
Personally I would check those Hands on the flop, but as you said a lot of players cbet everything on the flop in hope to get a fast fold. So I'm not quite sure if you can cut those out of his range.

Just my (beginner) opinion. Hope it helps

 

[Hermus]

Jep I agree. Action is (EDIT: would be) pretty dead with four to the straight and you really need to make some extra money. 99 is actually not terrible as a bluff catcher though because you have some extra equity with the OESD. If you think they're ever bluffing with something like AcXc I like calling here. We need to defend some portion of our range anyway and 99 outperforms JJ, TT, 55 in this specific board given the pre-flop 3-bet.

 

[Hermus]

If you don't have any specific reads on this opponent I also would have made the call, because as 'eetenor' said i don't think a lot of people could fold their strong hands on the river and I see him stacking of on the river with most of his hands.

If he 3bet bluffs them pre he could also have some hands like 7c5c, 6c5c, 8c5c etc. which he probably doesn't tripple barrel if he misses. So you get to showdown.
Personally I would check those Hands on the flop, but as you said a lot of players cbet everything on the flop in hope to get a fast fold. So I'm not quite sure if you can cut those out of his range.

Just my (beginner) opinion. Hope it helps

I think it's fair to say that 99.9% of the microstakes population does not 3-bet suited connectors or gappers in the big blind.

 

[eetenor]

thank you for the reply. A-lot of players flop c-bet their whole range on the flop but play more honestly on the turn, thats why I think its fine to call the flop, I think you have a fair point about them not being able to fold their strong hands when another straight card comes on the river, if that is the case I think we can profitably call then because will have the correct pot odds on the turn if we include our implied odds IP on the river.

Thank you for responding

It may be of value to you to think about refining ranges in this hand based on the betting pattern that this V showed.

As Hermus states standard V at this stake do not play GTO therefore this betting pattern indicates a stronger range on flop than a wide c-bet range because the V chose 33% pot.

The 3.5x raise size pre is designed to get you to call a much stronger range on BTN therefore there is little junk to target with a 33% pot bet flop. So a standard V at this level is betting AA AK SETS like this more often than AQs 33 etc. AQs etc is often betting flop to get folds 50%+ and not 33% pot flop- 66% turn as bluffs.

A data point that may be of value here to make a note of from you V pool is to see if your V are betting smaller with AA KK QQ from BB and betting larger with everything else.


Hope this helps