$2 NLHE 6-max: 3-bet shoved on the turn holding two pair

[Casey55]

V stats: 17/13 (72 hands)

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 4 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.15 (108 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.84 (142 bb)
SB: $4.74 (237 bb)
BB: $0.39 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with A♦ T♦
UTG raises to $0.05, Hero calls $0.05, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.13) 7♥ 8♦ A♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $0.07, Hero calls $0.07

Turn: ($0.27) T♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $0.18, Hero raises to $0.50, UTG raises to $2.03 (all-in), Hero...?

I decide to raise turn to get value from AK,AQ possibly AJ etc. Villain 3-bet shoves the turn.. his stats are tight but tight players because they play so few hands when they do flop TPTK they may go with it.

I am losing to sets and J9s. I am beating his TPTK type hands, the pot odds when he shoves feel too good to fold here... what do you think his range is and do you think we can profitably call?

 

[gustav197poker]

I suspect this V doesn't think you float on the flop with a hand like J9 and when you raise the turn you could represent some draws, like OESD and backdoor flush draw, so any set could jamming your raise. As played it is possible to fold the turn. Obviously it would be an exploitative fold against this tight V.
From preflop you haven't shown much strength in your range, so on the turn you should remove some TPTK and TPGK combos that you are blocking from range V.
This UTG has a way of playing that makes me think that he basically bets heavily with his value hands. And here the best way to get value is with AX type hands that played slow preflop, because they thought V is too tight and shouldn't have a lot of sets on this texture because we blocked them.
From the SPR optics you are committed to the pot and you should call.
But against this particular opponent, I have strong suspicions that there should only be sets in his range (assuming I relies on the sample of hud).
Greetings.

 

[fundiver199]

If he is only stacking off with sets or straights, then you are obviously smoked and not getting nearly good enough odds to call to try to draw to a boat. But even against someone with stats like this, could he not have hands like A7 or A8 and be doing this for value and protection? Or once in a while be going with a combodraw like KQ of spades or 87 of spades. It is after all a late position confrontation, and even nitty players tend to open up, when they are in late position.

Also if you think, he is so tight, that he is only stacking off with hands better than top two, then why are you raising him on the turn? A turn raise is only for value, if you can get called by worse, AND then also get called by worse, when you bet the river. So I dont really see raise-folding being a thing here. Either just call and look to call the vast majority of rivers, or close your eyes and get it in, when something like this happen.

 

[Hermus]

You unblock spades but the ace of spades is already accounted for. If the board was lets say Ah7s8dTs I like raise/calling the turn much more since you unblock all (semi) bluffs that you're ahead of while blocking a good chunk of likely hands that beat you. You also get some flush draws to fold their equity which is always nice.

With this runout calling the turn and calling or raising the river, depending on the river card, is a slightly better line in my opinion. You keep all top pairs and pure bluffs in and because the ace of spades is accounted for, you don't really need to raise for protection against the flush draws in villain's range.

As played, I think you're up against a top pair hand often enough to make this a profitable call. Especially because he's on the nittier side of the spectrum J9s might not show up in his range all the time even on a four-handed table.

One thing you could consider, but it's really just a matter of taste, is to ditch your BU calling range and play a 3-bet/fold strategy from every position except the big blind. The EV differences are very minimal and it makes both the pre-flop strategy and the post-flop strategy so much easier.

 

[Casey55]

You unblock spades but the ace of spades is already accounted for. If the board was lets say Ah7s8dTs I like raise/calling the turn much more since you unblock all (semi) bluffs that you're ahead of while blocking a good chunk of likely hands that beat you. You also get some flush draws to fold their equity which is always nice.

With this runout calling the turn and calling or raising the river, depending on the river card, is a slightly better line in my opinion. You keep all top pairs and pure bluffs in and because the ace of spades is accounted for, you don't really need to raise for protection against the flush draws in villain's range.

As played, I think you're up against a top pair hand often enough to make this a profitable call. Especially because he's on the nittier side of the spectrum J9s might not show up in his range all the time even on a four-handed table.

One thing you could consider, but it's really just a matter of taste, is to ditch your BU calling range and play a 3-bet/fold strategy from every position except the big blind. The EV differences are very minimal and it makes both the pre-flop strategy and the post-flop strategy so much easier.

I thought I could raise turn to try and stack him if he has AK,AQ since there are a bunch of combos if he plays all combos of those, Also wanted to protect against him rivering a better two pair with those hands, this was my thought process. Maybe I made a mistake by raising turn . I have experimented with the 3-bet or fold but when we 3-bet arnt we up against a stronger range when we are called? I dont feel I know exactly how to play against a stronger range in a 3-bet pot, it feels easier to just flat IP against a wider range and lose the minimum when I try to bluff flop or turn . Thoughts?

 

[Hermus]

I thought I could raise turn to try and stack him if he has AK,AQ since there are a bunch of combos if he plays all combos of those, Also wanted to protect against him rivering a better two pair with those hands, this was my thought process. Maybe I made a mistake by raising turn . I have experimented with the 3-bet or fold but when we 3-bet arnt we up against a stronger range when we are called? I dont feel I know exactly how to play against a stronger range in a 3-bet pot, it feels easier to just flat IP against a wider range and lose the minimum when I try to bluff flop or turn . Thoughts?

AK and AQ are drawing nearly dead and probably continue betting on the river. I don't feel like you're missing a lot of value against those hands. My thought process is/was actually the same as yours, where I bet/raise too often for protection because I'm scared of getting rivered. Betting/raising for protection is best when you're holding a decent but vulnerable hand (e.g. top pair vs likely flush draws, small pair scared of overcards etc). You dominate the hands you're trying to protect yourself against + those hands are in villains value-betting range + you're in position so it's not hard to get money in on later streets should villain check. To me, that adds up to just call the turn. That's my take on it at least, and jamming the turn is never a huge mistake maybe just slightly less optimal.

As for only 3-betting or folding from the BU. If you get called that range is certainly stronger than their open range. But we also expect to get folds a lot of the time. We also play a slightly tighter range to begin with because the bottom part of the cold calling range are just folds in that strategy. Both strategies are valid though and if you think you can profit more by having a calling range in the BU there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's just harder to remember .

 

[Casey55]

AK and AQ are drawing nearly dead and probably continue betting on the river. I don't feel like you're missing a lot of value against those hands. My thought process is/was actually the same as yours, where I bet/raise too often for protection because I'm scared of getting rivered. Betting/raising for protection is best when you're holding a decent but vulnerable hand (e.g. top pair vs likely flush draws, small pair scared of overcards etc). You dominate the hands you're trying to protect yourself against + those hands are in villains value-betting range + you're in position so it's not hard to get money in on later streets should villain check. To me, that adds up to just call the turn. That's my take on it at least, and jamming the turn is never a huge mistake maybe just slightly less optimal.

As for only 3-betting or folding from the BU. If you get called that range is certainly stronger than their open range. But we also expect to get folds a lot of the time. We also play a slightly tighter range to begin with because the bottom part of the cold calling range are just folds in that strategy. Both strategies are valid though and if you think you can profit more by having a calling range in the BU there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's just harder to remember .

Everything your saying is very logical thank you for the replies. Maybe I should have flatted turn here, villain did end up with J9s of clubs and I felt dumb, I guess he c-bets his whole range. I still feel unsure of if I should be trying to play for stacks against weak opponents who may not be able to fold the TPTK in their turn betting range, Im going to go back and look at flopzilla my guess is that its probrably a marginal spot to raise for value against his AK,AQ ?

If we assume he is ubwilling to fold TPTK we are beating AK,AQ ( 8 combos each)

Then we lose to 88,77,AA ( 7combos total)

We lose to J9s (4 combos)

If we assume J9 is not in his range it seems marginal ,


If we add in A8 of hearts and clubs and A7 of clubs thats 3 combos of suited Ax two pairs

Even if we don’t include villains J9s combos I guess its a marginal spot to raise for value since we are not ahead of 50% of the range that will continue?

 

[fundiver199]

villain did end up with J9s of clubs and I felt dumb

No reason to feel dumb. It was just a really good turn card for him. The hand is mostly just a cooler, and the main thing to take away is to just call the turn against a nitty player even with something as strong as this. On a deeper theoretical level you probably dont have J9 after calling the flop, and you would have 3-bet pre with AA and TT. So he has a significant nut advantage, and whenever that is the case, you should typically avoid creating a very large pot, since its not going to be advantageous for you in general.