€2 NLHE 6-max: 2NL 2x River Donk Bet

[Dimitris]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/27/6

Great fold or Big mistake?
For high stakes players or GTO maniacs is 100% call but in micros people just play their hands. Against normal bet (75%-pot bet) I would make the call. But in micros people don't bluff too much at these spots.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - €0.01/€0.02 - 4 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: €4.55 (228 bb)
BU (Hero): €3.20 (160 bb)
SB: €2.79 (140 bb)
BB: €2.57 (129 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.03) Hero is BTN with 9♠ 9♦
UTG raises to €0.04, Hero calls €0.04, 1 fold, BB calls €0.02

Flop: (€0.13) 7♥ 5♠ K♠ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets €0.07, Hero calls €0.07, BB calls €0.07

Turn: (€0.34) 9♣ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets €0.25, BB calls €0.25, UTG calls €0.25

River: (€1.09) 8♥ (3 players)
BB bets €2.21 (all-in), UTG folds, BU (Hero) folds

 

[gustav197poker]

The most important thing to consider in this hand is the opening that the villain makes. In this case it is done from a super strong position that is UTG. From this position, small opens are made (like the one made by the villain), when we induce protective raises. The reason for this is that in the eyes of our villains, our hand / range is very strong and does not need any protection, since it is perceived as strong due to the position we have.
If, on the other hand, we make a large opening from UTG, our hand / range is perceived with less force but is still respectable, due to our position.
So if we are in micro stakes, the villain's hand / range is much more likely to be a premium hand and less likely to be be suitable connectors, like JT o 67 for example.
In this way, we reach the river with fewer hands that defeat us. In fact a hand like JT o 67 should tobe only 2 spade combos, because the probability of this villain betting us on the flop is greatly reduced when he does not have a flush draw. This reasoning should be applied in the same way for the hand of type 6X of the suit ( 6X: 6A of spade only. Also very unlikely this hand for a villano of UTG in micro stakes).
For all that has been said, there are many more hands that we defeat versus the hands that defeat us. And the hand V for UTG is KK. But actually the probability of that he having it is greatly reduced, because it is most likely to continue with a second barrel in the turn. And if he was afraid you completed the phantom hand on the turn, his river push doesn't make much sense.
Regarding villain 2 (the BB), his range is mainly made up of combos of failed flush draws or neutral hands that do not affect our hand. This means that only 2 combos beat us on the river: 6s-7s and Js-Ts. So the call should not be considered an error. Even under a micro stakes scenario, where the villains are much tighter in his bluffs.
Greetings.

 

[puzzlefish]

At 2NL you will see all sorts of play and without knowing more about your villain, he would be repping J10 here or KK. Realistically you should have a large amount of their range beat, which would include AK, lower sets, and worse. However his preflop action is incredibly weak which makes J10 very believable from this player. I think it is J10. I feel that in the long run this spot should be a call, but you don't have to call it all the time.

 

[gustav197poker]

The most important thing to consider in this hand is the opening that the villain makes. In this case it is done from a super strong position that is UTG. From this position, small opens are made (like the one made by the villain), when we induce protective raises. The reason for this is that in the eyes of our villains, our hand / range is very strong and does not need any protection, since it is perceived as strong due to the position we have.
If, on the other hand, we make a large opening from UTG, our hand / range is perceived with less force but is still respectable, due to our position.
So if we are in micro stakes, the villain's hand / range is much more likely to be a premium hand and less likely to be be suitable connectors, like JT o 67 for example.
In this way, we reach the river with fewer hands that defeat us. In fact a hand like JT o 67 should tobe only 2 spade combos, because the probability of this villain betting us on the flop is greatly reduced when he does not have a flush draw. This reasoning should be applied in the same way for the hand of type 6X of the suit ( 6X: 6A of spade only. Also very unlikely this hand for a villano of UTG in micro stakes).
For all that has been said, there are many more hands that we defeat versus the hands that defeat us. And the hand V for UTG is KK. But actually the probability of that he having it is greatly reduced, because it is most likely to continue with a second barrel in the turn. And if he was afraid you completed the phantom hand on the turn, his river push doesn't make much sense.
Regarding villain 2 (the BB), his range is mainly made up of combos of failed flush draws or neutral hands that do not affect our hand. This means that only 2 combos beat us on the river: 6s-7s and Js-Ts. So the call should not be considered an error. Even under a micro stakes scenario, where the villains are much tighter in his bluffs.
Greetings.

Push was from BB. The same consideration for me. 6s-7s and JsTs their values. Of course the BB range is wider. But in a 3WP you want to have a little more equity. 8-8 is also among its dominated values, if we assume that it is more sticky as it seems.

 

[Dimitris]

Thanks for your analysis