$2 NLHE 6-max: $2 NLHE 6-max: Villain Slowplays Full-House. Hero goes All-in w/ a set

[Green1000]

$2 NLHE 6-max: $2 NLHE 6-max: Villain Slowplays Full-House. Hero goes All-in w/ a set

Hi guys, new on the forums, kinda new into the game as well. Looking to improve my game here. My goal is to beat the NL2.

Lost my stack in this hand. What could I have done better? Fold after he shoves at river? Thanks in advance.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: 110 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, hands: 52)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
Hero (MP): 204.5 BB
CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 22.45, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 49)
BTN: 107 BB (VPIP: 65.28, PFR: 1.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ K♠

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) Q♥ J♣ A♦
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 7.5 BB, BTN calls 7.5 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (27 BB, 2 players) 7♠
Hero bets 13 BB, BTN calls 13 BB

River: (53 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero bets 38.5 BB, BTN raises to 83.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 45 BB

BTN shows 7♥ A♣ (Full House, Aces full of Sevens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 10%, Turn 70%)
Hero shows A♥ K♠ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 74%, Flop 90%, Turn 30%)
BTN wins 212.5 BB

 

[John A]

You don't have a set actually, you have trips. But yeah, you should be betting a little smaller on the river. Only worse Ax will call you, and he looks fishy/bad enough to have some worse Ax by the river, but you still want to leave yourself room to fold versus fishy players. The only problem you have in these spots versus fish is if they are over valuing their hand, and generally if you barrel 3 streets, they won't over value quite as much.

As played, it's probably close to a coin flop in term of call/fold based on the odds you gave yourself and how bad your opponent is. Considering the bet sizing, probably closer to a fold. But I'd say it's not a huge leak to call here.

 

[Green1000]

You don't have a set actually, you have trips. But yeah, you should be betting a little smaller on the river. Only worse Ax will call you, and he looks fishy/bad enough to have some worse Ax by the river, but you still want to leave yourself room to fold versus fishy players. The only problem you have in these spots versus fish is if they are over valuing their hand, and generally if you barrel 3 streets, they won't over value quite as much.

Thanks for the fast reply. Your reasoning makes sense.

So, if I got it right instead of 3/4 bet maybe a 1/2 or smaller on the river since I don't actually have the nuts. I will then have the room to fold if he decides to 3bet.

The thing I notice with passive fish like this is it seems to be almost impossible to know if he was actually holding a flop straight or just coming in for the ride with Ax. Sometimes I don't bet at all on the river in case of some crazy slow-play scheme but that doesn't seem to be a good way to deal with it either because of losing value.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think as a newer player, it's important to learn to recognise the difference between losing a stack due to bad play, and losing a stack due to bad luck. As John said above, this is definitely not a clear fold, and your play is fine.

If you had more info on the villain, and knew him to be tighter and better, then a fold might be better.

 

[scubed]

Lost my stack in this hand. What could I have done better? Fold after he shoves at river? Thanks in advance.

Let's look at Villain's stats over the hands Hero has seen him: VPIP: 65.28, PFR: 1.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74). 74 is a small sample HOWEVER, according to BlackRain79 (biggest online winner at NL2) we can start to make assumptions about our opponents as early as 20 hands.

Anytime an opponent has VPIP >40 they are a fish. 40% is simply too wide to defend properly. Add to that, that the gap between Villan's VPIP/PFR is huge - probably a lot of limping - meaning Villain is passive. What we have here is a Loose Passive player, a FISH... a BIG FISH! YUMMY.

PREFLOP: We would not expect Villain to 3-bet and he didn't. Based on hands Villain has revealed at showdown - what would Villain flat call an open raise with? What is his range? Any Ax, any pair, any broadway, any two suited with a high card, suited connectors?

FLOP: Hero makes a c-bet. With the statistical assessment that Villain is passive, we can assume that he "has something" or he would have folded, correct? What is Villain's continuing range when calling a bet from an out of position Hero? Straight, set, two pair, TPTK, middle pair, straight draw? If Villain would continue with only when he "has something" then Hero is behind most of Villain's range.

TURN: Hero bets 1/2 pot. What was the purpose? What was Hero trying to accomplish with the small sizing? Hero layed Villain 3:1 odds on a call - pretty good odds if Villain "has something." Was Hero betting for value or as a bluff? Why not check? Hero's hand doesn't beat many of the hands in the range that Villain continued on the flop with.

RIVER: OH NO! Hero bings top trips to improve his hand; but again, thinking about Villain's continuing range on the flop/turn, what is Hero really beating? Even binging trips Hero is still behind a lot of the hands in Villain's range: AQ, AJ, A7, KT, QQ, JJ, 77. Why not check and try to get to showdown?

When we bet we should know if it is a value bet or a bluff. When betting for value (this is my guess at why Hero was betting) we need to ask "what worse hands will call my value bet?" Could Villain possibly have QJ, Q7, J7 or some pair like TT? When we can't think of a lot of worse hands that will call a bet, it might be better to check the river.

On the end.. there is SO much money in the pot. Hard not to call the shove, even though it is difficult to think of hands Villain would shove that Hero beats. I don't know the correct answer, but hopefully I have provided some food for thought...

 

[Green1000]

Wow! This site is great. Such detailed analysis. I am greatly pleased!

I think as a newer player, it's important to learn to recognise the difference between losing a stack due to bad play, and losing a stack due to bad luck. As John said above, this is definitely not a clear fold, and your play is fine.

If you had more info on the villain, and knew him to be tighter and better, then a fold might be better.

Thanks for the reply. It does provide some solace My strategy is, I'm trying to improve my game by attacking and trying to eliminate the biggest losses first. Good strategy, no? As they say it's not just about winning more but equally so about the losing less.

hopefully I have provided some food for thought...

You definitely did provide food for thought there. I like the way you think! I remember being scared of first and foremost the villain having a hit a straight on the flop, but then again judging by his massive ranges and passivity, I wouldn't be surprised he had something ridiculous as Q9. Happened before.

 

[Hujiko]

As already mentioned the villain is a loose - passive player so preflop his range is very wide after him calling the flop we can define his range a bit better as the flop is very wet and hits all broadway cards JT+, QT+, KT+ AT+ and all Ax cards also got a piece of the board.

On the turn a 7 comes off which still leaves the villain with a lot of worse hands then your AK so a turn bet is probably still good but then again if the villain calls it is get more likely that he will fold some of his worst paired hands like Q9, J8 etc and his range gets stronger. Then again if we count Q9 and J8 then also KTo it a lot more likely.

On the river you hit trips and are now beating besides Ax also any two pair hand that probably will call. So I like the river bet although it could be a bit smaller (or just a shove yourself if you feel that you are pot committed) leaving you more folding room if the villain goes all-in as he did.

Lets count some combos that you beat and combos that beat you:
AT, A9, A8 24 combos but will they all shove? I not think so lets say 1/3 shoves and the rest makes the call which is 24 * 1/3 is 8 combos you beat.
AQ,AJ,QQ,JJ,A7 all beat you and prob will shove which is 15 combos
KT lets only count the suited ones but then again he def could call with KTo preflop also giving his VIP% KTs is 4 combos lets count KTo for 50% which is another 6 combos.
He could ofc also have AK and shove which would be a split pot 3 combos there

So you will win against 8 combos loose against 25 combos and split against 3 combos which is 9.5 out average win out of 36 outcomes ~26% and you need the following odds are 45 to win ~210 ~21% making it very close but a probably call under the above assumptions.