10NL QQ vs raise/reraise preflop

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phatjose

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pokerstars Game #17005979059: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/26 - 11:44:17 (ET)
Table 'Pyrrha' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: rlawnsdud ($10.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Dream eve ($10.25 in chips)
Seat 3: phatjose ($12.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Guma33 ($3.90 in chips)
Seat 5: MigthyDuckA ($11.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Iskeo ($10.55 in chips)
Seat 7: snarf98 ($9.90 in chips)
Seat 9: mirko110678 ($23.80 in chips)
Guma33: posts small blind $0.05
MigthyDuckA: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to phatjose [Qh Qs]
Iskeo: folds
snarf98: folds
mirko110678: folds
rlawnsdud: raises $0.30 to $0.40
Dream eve: raises $1 to $1.40
phatjose: ??


Rlawnsdud is 15/12/7 over 180 hands. Gets a little too aggressive with marginal hands and thinks that he can just buy people off pots.

Dream eve is super nit. 8/7/4 over 400 hands. Fit or fold type player.

I'm not too worried about rlawnsdud since I've seen him raise light from late position before. But the 3 bet from dream eve is what I'm worried about. I will have position, but I think I might be at best a coinflip in this situation. Plus I can't close out the betting. Fold/Call/Shove?
 
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Dr_Dick

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Tough, as your read of Dream as a super nit means you are most likely behind. If Dream has AA/KK 30% of the time and AK 70% of the time, you are still behind (rough guess, have not actually run any numbers).

But, if as you state Dream is a fit or fold, then in position your best play here is to call. The reason would be based on your read Rlawn will call so you get a nice $4.20 in the pot. From there several things can happen...

1) You hit a Q on the flop and possibly stack both players (especially if nit has AA/KK).

2) The flop is all unders, Rlawn tries to buy the pot and mister fit or fold will announce at that time if he has AA/KK or AK by his response to Rlawn. If he folds you get to shove against Rlawn.

3) The flop hits, Rlawn checks and you get to find out where fit and fold really stands...this would be a tough decision on an all under flop but you only have $1.40 invested.

There are obviously other scenarios that could play out here, but I think overall you can justify a call in this situation based on the potential value post flop.
 
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erille

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This is usually the easiest call/raise ever, but with those stats um I guess you have to fold or take the call and hope for a queen.
 
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phatjose

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Well I ended up reluctantly calling. I figured that with position it was worth a call.

phatjose: calls $1.40
Guma33: folds
RAYMAN12345 joins the table at seat #8
MigthyDuckA: folds
rlawnsdud: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Jh 8h 6d]
rlawnsdud: checks
Dream eve: bets $3.90
phatjose: ??

So at this point I just don't see how I can continue with the hand. If I figure Dream eve's range at being AQ+, JJ+ then I am coin flipping. But with 2 queens in my hand already, I think a more realistic range is JJ, KK/AA, AK, at which point I am a 57/43 dog.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:57.199% 57.20% 00.00% 105327 0.00 { KK+, JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1:42.801% 42.80% 00.00% 78813 0.00 { QQ }

Time to dump it yes?
 
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hbkmad

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i don't really understand the numbers u gave on dream, i've never used pokertracker can u explained what they mean. But as i'm reading on it seems that dream is very tight. i would fold b4 the flop if he's tight. i'm saying he has aces
 
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Dr_Dick

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Actually, if you use your realistic range 57/43 then over 1000+ hands you win $5.22 out of a $12.15 pot (saying rlawn doesn't call). You have $5.30 invested, so on average you are losing .08 per hand. So mathematically if you smooth call here and rlawn calls even 1 in 10 of these hands you are most likely profitable.

Taking computer garbage out of the situation....go back to my original response under #3..an all under flop with Dream firing a near pot size bet. Probably the toughest situation you can be in as any A or K on the flop would have made this easy.

If you go over the top here you are only getting called by a better hand. Calling gives rlawn the chance to call or bluff (we are still putting him on nothing right?)....

I say given the all under flop you are only really beat by AA/KK here and you want as much money in the pot as you can to offset the times when you are up against AA/KK. I call wanting rlawn to call, realizing full well this pretty much commits me to the pot. Regardless of rlawns actions, the turn card, or Dreams..all my money is going in the pot on the turn.
 
zebranky

zebranky

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More Aggression, please!

I always seem to be be saying it (which goes to show why I'm considered a wild man sometimes), but be more aggressive PF!

Even agaist a real tight player, more often than not you're going to be ahead than behind with QQ. My guess is that Dream is doing exactly what you want to be doing - pushing out weak hands and trying to define his opponents' hands. My suggestion (dare I say it - don't ever quote me on this) would be to raise - even min-raise - just to get the guy in the middle to fold. You probably get a heads-up, and you can better define Dream's hand by whether he calls (middle pair or AK, most likely) or re-raises again (then I can put him on KK or AA and call or fold). Until you have more information, I would put him on a middle pair or AK. Without the information, though, it's really hard to tell if he hit the flop for a set or has an overpair.
 
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Dr_Dick

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Taking the computer equation out of the hand I tend to agree with Zebranky (except if you raise here you are not folding given your remaining stack). I am really only advocating the call because you have run a hand range from JJ, AA/KK, AK putting you at 57/43.

When you are actually in the hand I doubt you have your computer running and the pressure for me to push or fold here would come down to my read...if you really truly think you are up against AA/KK you have to fold, but on an all under flop I think you just have to man up and push back.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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An 8/7/4 3 bets AK/AA and KK. I think with his stats we can discount JJ lots of times. With AK being the most likely holding here.

Now once you call preflop you can't just check fold on an undercard flop Our QQ is also vunerable to any overcards, and we need to betting this hand for protection,calling means we have to check fold to any nasty turn cards (even though any ace slows down KK).

The flop bet is also large, and to me looks like a scared one, and in general here i stack, and assume that im against AK here enough times to make it work. Even with your range including JJ there is enough money out there to get it in. We can also fold, and treat this hand as a set mine which i dont mind at all tbh, but this is something to be aware of when you make the preflop call.

I shove and crai when he flips AA.
 
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phatjose

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After running the numbers without JJ as part of his range, a shove actually becomes more favorable, since now I am only a 54/46 dog if we assume his range to be AK/KK/AA. And with rlawns money already in the pot, and looking like he is conceding (figure he probably would have donked into us if he had hit a hand), shoving over the top is probably the best play.

Unfortunately, as Dr. Dick mentioned I'm not running these numbers through poker stove during the hand, so I ended up basically playing for set value, figuring that I could felt one or both if I hit. I missed so I folded.

It seems like something I need to work on is being able to work out the rough numbers in my head so I can calculate the % during the hand, instead of afterwards.
 
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